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3News-Reid Research poll sees big post-Hager bounce for Conservatives

The latest 3News-Reid Research poll shows that the Conservative Party is on the verge of making it into the next Parliament, even without an electorate deal with National.

The poll, conducted in the week following the release of Nicky Hager’s Dirty Politics book, has the Conservatives on 4.6%, tantalisingly close to the 5% MMP threshold.

It also found 63% of voters overall and 43% of National voters want Judith Collins stood down.

On July 28, Prime Minister John Key said National would only do MMP electorate deals with ACT and UnitedFuture. His party was still open to a post-election deal with the Conservatives.

Commentator Matthew Hooton said National had rejected the idea of a deal for Mr Craig in East Coast Bays because internal polling showed it would alienate fiscally conservative but socially liberal urban voters.

The Conservatives' move to make binding referenda a bottom line has also been problematic.

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UPDATE — Full results (via Curiablog)

On this poll, the centre parties would hold the balance of power. National could govern with NZ First, or with the Maori Party and ACT and UnitedFuture.

Labour could only govern with the Greens, Internet Mana, NZ First and the Maori Party.

Party Support

  • National 45.0% (-2.5%)
  • Labour 26.3% (-2.6%)
  • Green 13.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.3% (nc)
  • Maori 0.7%  (-0.1%)
  • United Future 0.4% (+0.2%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.1% (+0.1%)
  • NZ First 6.3% (+1.7%)
  • Conservative 4.6% (+2.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 33
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/123 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 17 + Mana/Internet 3 = 53/123 – nine fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 3 = 11/123

Preferred Prime Minister:

John Key 41.4 percent, down 2.7 percent
David Cunliffe 11.1 percent, up 1.2 percent

Should John Key stand Judith Collins down?

Yes 63 percent
No 28 percent
Don't know 9 percent

National voters:

Yes 43 percent
No 46 percent
Don't know 9 percent

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 20 to 25 August 2014 approx

Comments and questions
28

Outlier? Rogue poll?

At Winston First's expense or National's expense I wonder?

I hope so.

I bet you're panicing Craig! Hee

Why? You assume that this is a representative poll. Is it? And perhaps there needs to be greater transparency, scrutiny and detail in MSM coverage of this party. Much more so. Remember the Christian Coalition in 1996? I do.

Gower will play this like a breathless teenage girl. These polls are meaningless. The best he could do, and in fact the nest all in the media can do is to stop reporting on the oversized German and Hagar and report to us, the voter on what matters, the promises and costs of each promise from each party.
Then report the likely hood of that party getting even 50% of its promises into play should they be elected. I don’t want to know what the German thinks, or what Hagar thinks I don’t care if Key sacks Collins or not. This will not help me decide who to vote for. Key is right when he says NZ’ers want to know what the party will do for them. The Collins, German, Hagar, Corkery et-al rubbish is just noise as are the polls.

Spot on JP!

You seem to be trying to convince yourself of your theory JP

If you take yourself out in the big wide world - away from the 20% who control 80% of the countries wealth you might just find that people do care about the dirty politics and whether John Key should sack Collins

The election is the only time that the 80% controlling 20% of the wealth can dictate their terms.

Time will tell whether you are right or wrong but maybe that decision is not one you are going to make

If the 80 percent care more about the gossip and speculation than the substance of policy, it goes some way to explaining why they only have 20 percent of the wealth.

Spoken like a true one-eyed public school Tory

So Herr Doctor, you support the big, fat, lying, cheating German with enough money to put him in the top few percent?

JP, most sensible comments. Most of this stuff has little or nothing to do with how well the country is or will be run. Like you, I want to hear who will do what, and back it up with factual fiscal details as to how they will implement and what will be sacrificed to do so. So far, we have seen total media hype talking up issues the public don't care about, and little more than platitudes on policy (no content but we will make you feel better with words), rising to a disgraceful crescendo yesterday with Labour's "policy" on Pike River.

Just wondering JP - is the likely hood a German?

What a load of BS. So many factors can skew polls -- which are incredibly unreliable.

You are indeed right, WTR. It may be the case that this particular poll sampled too many fundamentalist Christians, elderly people, rural dwellers or other likely social constituencies that back religious social constituency. If any of those bias variables are valid for this particular poll, it becomes an inaccurate measure of public opinion.

"As many as are of the opinion that say Aye"

"As many as are of the contrary opinion, say No"

The EYES have it!

In which case, the eyes in question are wilfully blind.

In the TV3 poll immediately before the 2011 election, the Conservatives were on 1.8%. This poll like all the other polling companies polls underestimated the Conservatives, who went on to get 2.7%.

Likewise this 4.6% probably underestimates the Conservatives true level of support.

Actually SJ, I do believe you're right.

The more I see and hear from the refreshing Mr Craig, the more I like him!

John Key will not be unhappy Craig must be a better bet as a coalition partner than Winston. Surely?

As long as he drops his dopey bottom lines.

Somewhat surprising that the rise in the Conservatives' percentage does not appear to have been at the expense of Winston First. It is worth noting that a recent survey, by Family First, found that both the Conservatives and NZ First scored by far the highest of all the political parties on support of socially conservative issues. To a significant extent they seem to be competing for the same constituencies; Winston regards the Conservatives as spoilers for him, they irritate him and I am sure he will become more vociferous in attacking them.

by ferdinand 12 hours ago in reply to John Morrison

As long as he drops his dopey bottom lines.

I think you grossly underestimate the groundswell of public opinion of Referenda and Foreign land ownership and whatever else Colin Craig comes across as ,he appears very honest and perhaps voters prefer honest politicians to those who say things they later fail to do and perhaps remember that Winston acquired about $138k of taxpayers money and we still have no credible evidence it has been returned. Winston commented on Radio Live that the poll was a rogue one in terms of Conservative support but implied it was accurate for him - know thats the spiel of a real snakeoil salesman.

Perhaps someone can explain why a poll result of 45% for National leads to 57 seats and not 54 (45% of 120 =54)?

It's based on a 2 seat overhang, plus 1 Act and 1 United future seat as in the current government. So 45% of 122 plus 2 = 57.

What this shows is the John Key star is indecline, the social conservatives are leaving National and going to NZ First and the Conservatives they will not go to Labour or the Greens. Particularly in the Provinces, John Key's National Government has walked away from these people in the interests of the 20% who hold 80% of the wealth. Todays virtual denial that there is price gouging by Air NZ on provincial routes ilustrates how out of touch he is with real issues that effect the middle income earners who put him in power.at the last two elections and now will take that power away.

In reply to Gaffer, in statistical terms this is not necessarily a trend. It is one poll and they have a significant margin of error - a fact that is oft overlooked by TV media. And even if it is a trend, National could work with either of these two if he needs to. Winston has stated again and again that he will talk to the party with the most votes first - he is unlikely to line up with Labour and the Greens. Let's not make wild assumptions; let''s wait and see.

Surely Key can sacrifice Collins and simultaneously say cheers to ACT, with its now perennial single seat return and have tea with Rankin. One over-dresser for another. She would bring a bucket-load of MPS and Peters is a gone burger. Saves a knighthood too and Lockwood gets a longer London gig.Win-win, as Don Brash would say. Oh, I forgot, in his last disguise he was ACT, wasn't he? Win some, Don, lose some.