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Abbott: How many terms in opposition?

I don’t think the question anymore is whether Tony Abbott has lost the next election, and the Coalition will be a one term government.

I think the question is now how many terms in opposition will they have?

The only way they might recover is a change in leader.

The trouble is Joe Hockey is equally damaged and most of the caucus hate Malcolm Turnbull (but the public love him).

Could Turnbull end up Prime Minister?

Let’s see how bad the polls go in the next six months.

Political commentator David Farrar posts at Kiwiblog.

Comments and questions

Abbott will be ok come election time, and appears to me to be doing a stellar job. All he has to do is remind everyone who he replaced and why everyone voted them out - the sight of Gillard & Rudd pictures is enough to churn anyone's stomachs.

If only our government had the guts and honesty to do what Abbott's has regarding the climate change fraud.

Magoo, you have no idea the affect the Abbot government budgets has on everyday people. His $86 billion dollar cuts to health and education are going to put pressure on the states to increase taxes.

Cuts to government departments of 16000 people has a huge affect on people and their livelyhood.

Deregulating the tertiary sector means students will pay through the roof for a degree and would mostly likely go overseas for employment as they would not be able to afford to live in Australia.

Having to wait 6 months if your under thirty for welfare when you have lost your job is

This us a cowardly government that has no idea and us out if touch with the general population of Australia. Think long and hard about whether this is the NZ you want.

I'm sure people are capable of looking after themselves and adapting to change - they were in New Zealand, just look at the dairy industry.

As a young apprentice during the Douglas reforms, my whole trade that I was working in pretty much disappeared as the result of the economic reforms. I adapted, changed course, and think the reforms were a good thing - I can now buy a cheap, quality imported car free of import tariffs.

As someone who is now self employed, if I want welfare then I would probably have to wait 6 months to receive it in NZ. The reforms the Australian govt is implementing is already the New Zealand we live in, and we are a stronger economy than theirs and nobody is suffering as you suggest. The change is always painful (i.e. cold turkey for the socialist junkies), but voters understand that they need to be made which is why the Labour party that implemented Rogernomics was voted in again by a landslide in 1987. The socialist junkies will just have to adapt and history shows they will.

Good on Abbott. The mark of a strong and honest leader is making the tough and often unpopular decisions for the long term good of the country, not bribing people for their votes so they can stay in power for the next electoral term.

The Australian media other than Murdoch are very left wing and have always hated Abbott who they said would never be PM they were wrong and now angry as he discontinued Rudd's habit of running the country by media releases. Thus they are to get him
However- Costello's first budget cleaning up Keating's mess saw such anger that the crowds broke into parliament , breaking glass doors etc and covering the floor in blood.
They got over it and he was an exemplary treasurer
So don't join the Oz media circus - just see how it pans out

Graeme Edwards

The Fairfax Press may well be left wing
As an ex-pat kiwi living in Melbourne for a number of years, you could be right, but I disagree with your "very left wing" attribution. I'm not left wing. I stopped reading the Murdoch press 5 years ago

Two issues

(a) In the state of NSW there has been running an ICAC investrigation into corruption of the political process with devastating implications. It has been widely reported by 2 of the most widely respected Fairfax Investigative journalists in Australia, Kate McClymont and Michaela Whitbourn. The Murdoch Press has been singularly silent. It has not reported any findings of 7 hearings over the past 2 years. If it wasnt for the Fairfax Press we wouldn't event know it was happening.

Even hard-right shock-jock Sydney's 2GB Allan "The Parrot" Jones is now taking up the cudgels against the corruption and cover-ups and lack of press coverage.

(b) Since attaining power, Tony Abbott has developed a dismissive style similar to John Key, and it isn't going over too well.

David you normally have good instincts, but you've been suckered here. Abbott's cleaning out the stables and getting it over and done with in one go. Aussie is not anywhere near as badly off as their media, mostly licking the wounds of how their Labor favourites stuffed up and got dumped so unceremoniously, are painting and tainting it.

Turnbull is a very good operator - he actually doesn't have to do anything as he knows Abbott will grenade on his own
As much of a clown Abbott is , Turnbull is professional and has some powerful friends in high places - he will be Prime Minister, of that there is no doubt - Just like John Howard was on the backbenches for a l;ong time and then a great PM, Turbull very similar

I'm afraid the problem for the Liberals is that Abbott should never have been selected as leader in the first place. He was largely the beneficiary of a string of state-based long-term incumbency fatigues that led to the impression that he was a competent leader. However, on his own, he has been revealed to be a facile, unco-ordinated populist. David is absolutely spot-on about this. Question is whether Turnbull will move before or after the next Australian federal elections? As I've said before, I suggest that it will be a bad Coalition result in Victoria that may set the caucus room dominoes falling.