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ANALYSIS: G20 leaders add Doha kicker to US revival plan

The Pittsburgh G20 summit has pretty much turned out as the American hosts intended: with a pledge by the leaders of the world’s biggest economies to rethink their economic policies, boost bank capital to avoid future financial crises, and even kickstart the stalled Doha Trade Round.

On the economic front, the aim is to reduce the immense imbalances between export-dominated countries such as China and Japan, whose trade reserves have funded the large US deficit caused by excessive consumption and borrowing.

The US will be expected to increase its savings rate and reduce its large trade and fiscal deficits. The exporters – China, Japan and Germany – will in turn be expected to promote more domestic consumption and investment.

While Pittsburgh agreements are not binding, the International Monetary Fund will play an important role in reviewing each country’s policies. US officials spent months before the summit preparing the outcome, which was known as the framework for economic stability.

Another important outcome is confirmation the G20 summit will in future be the main forum for global economic issues, replacing the G7 of the major industrial economies (the US, UK, France, Canada, Italy, Germany and Japan). This brings together all of the world’s large economies, accounting for more than 90% of the world’s wealth generation, including China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Korea and Australia.

In a key outcome reflecting the cause of the global financial crisis, the G20 Leaders’ Statement requires higher levels of capital at banks and other financial institutions as a buffer against unexpected losses or disruptions in credit markets. The communiqué outlines a long set of principles for tougher rules, and governments pledged to develop “internationally agreed” regulations by the end of 2010.

But reflecting disagreements leading up to the summit, mainly from France and Germany where banking reserves are lower than in the US, the G20 imposes no specific amount on the level of capital reserves.

Similarly, disagreement on controlling financial industry salaries has resulted in bonus caps, as suggested by France, being rejected in favour of more flexible measures that will ensure bonuses do not solely reward short-term performance without regard to longer-term risks.

This means the payouts may be deferred for several years, though the measures do not preclude individual countries from imposing their own restrictions.

Other measures include a pledge to devise policies by the end of 2010 for closing troubled financial institutions that are considered “too big to fail” and the need to regulate financial derivatives. In general, these endorse the American framework.

Finally, the G20 will give China and other Asian nations a bigger share of the vote at the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, plus a promise to reach a conclusion to the Doha round on global trade by the end of 2010.

This will be welcomed by all agricultural exporting nations such as New Zealand, though the trade talks have proved far more intractable than financial issues due to the strong protectionist sentiments in countries from the US and Europe to India and Brazil.

Oh, and on climate change – zero. All the G20 leaders have done is to ask their finance ministers for a "range of possible options" to finance deployment of technology to curb greenhouse gases, but these proposals no longer have to be drafted before the Copenhagen summit in December. Which leaves what will the replace the Kyoto Protocol as much up in the air as before.

But the Americans achieved a goal of sorts when the G20 agreed to phase out government subsidies for the production and consumption of fossil fuels, though again no deadline was set.
 

More by Nevil Gibson

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