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Android will dominate iPhone - investment bank

A new report by US investment bank Piper Jaffray sees mobile phones based on Google’s Android software outselling Apple’s iPhone by next year.

And “ultimately” Android phones (made by Motorola, Samsung, Sony-Ericsson, LG, HTC and others) will grab 50% market share.

The report also predicts that the highest-profile Android hold-out, Nokia, will eventually “cave” and release models based on Google’s software.

The investment bank also sees potential for Nokia to have a significant partnership with Microsoft, whose major Windows Phone 7 mobile phone software upgrade is due later this year.

It’s not all bad news for Apple.

Piper Jaffray said while Apple’s smartphone market share will top out between 20% and 30%, it will grab around 50% of profit, due to its higher margin on handsets.

By contrast, Google’s takings from Android will remain relatively modest. The bank sees them at $US1.35 billion for 2012 - about a 20th of Apple's iPhone take today.

Three recent retail surveys - by Nielsen, NDP and Canalys - have found Android-based phones (which sell for as little as $US100, off contract) - outselling iPhone over the past six months in the US.

By the end of this year - looking at worldwide sales - Piper Jaffray sees iPhone still leading with 15.9% market share to Android’s 14.9%.

By the end of 2012, the investment bank sees Android on 23.2% and iPhone on 17.6%.

Comments and questions
15

My next phone will definitely be an Android

Android is a platform, not a manufacturer.

If an investment firm is making such predictions, then perhaps they can tell us exactly who they are investing in to take advantage of such growth?

(Because it is certainly not google).

I've tried i-phone, blackberry and android. Android is Definitely the best. I think those figures are way conservative - I think android will take over i-phone next year. http://www.android-phone-aps.org shows some much more detailed stats around this.

I have used I-Phone, blackberry and Android. Android is by far the best. I think Android will take over I-Phone next year, not 2011. At http://www.android-phoone-apps.org there are more detailed stats with some intersting trends.

I've had my Android for 2 months and it's the best phone I've ever owned. I learnt about these phones from http://www.Android-Phone-Apps.org they've got some really helpful apps which expand android capabilities.

And if I'd had the sense to buy Apple shares every time THEY said that Apple was on the way out, I'd be a very wealthy man !!

(And sell them when Apple's price went up a year later)

Once the iPhone goes onto other networks in the US which it will possibly in Q1 2011 its market share will remain above the Andriod. The only edge Andriod has in the US is the fact the iPhone is locked into the AT&T network.

Apple has only one phone that gets updated annually. Android has probably over a hundred targeting the full price spectrum. There is no doubt it will pass Apple but Apple will have the most popular phone model at any point in time for a long period.

Even RIM has multiple models covering different price points.

Some interesting forecasts in that PiPer-Jaffrey report.
I agree that the current and forseeable iPhone product has a market share ceiling for around 30%. the others are harder to predict.

The site linked to has an excerpt which states RIM had an internal struggle over whether to join Android or not and ultimately choose to stay with Blackberry OS. Unlike Piper-Jaffrey I think this was the right thing for RIM to do.

The proprietary nature of iOS is what is generating Apple income and RIM does the same thing with it's enterprise software. To throw this out and simply provide an overlay on top of Android (which hasn't worked for Sony Ericsson) would be madness. RIM needs to further develop it's proprietary software to ensure that iOS doesn't make inroads into RIM's core market. Imagine a BB tablet to compete with iPad for business news subscribers and VPN connections. Proprietary software done right is a goldmine as Apple has shown and running Android simply hands all the income and credit to Google.

Nokia are in trouble. Symbian has little traction in the modern smartphone market and Sony Ericsson (a Symbian Foundation member) has recently said that Android is it's main focus at present. I can't see Symbian getting any better and the experimental Maemo turned Mee-go OS seems to have sunk without a trace. Nokia SHOULD go to Android, but it's recent agreement with Microsoft over Office 2010 Mobile might cause both parties to look closer at Nokia smartphones running WP7. I think both companies need that sort of partnership.

Can't wait to see what HP does with the WebOS it gained in the Palm buyout.

I think Apple will be happy with 30% of the market for iPhone. They want the premium market and they have it. If they want other markets, they''ll just innovate like they did with the iPad and send everyone else scrambling to catch up.

I predict most of Androids sales increase will be at the expense of mid-to-high-end feature phones. The smartphone market is growing overall.

In my opinion , Iphone and adroid , no one can dominate all phone market for a long time , the IT industry is hangeable and fast , No matter which industry , No matter who become the king, competing with each other can lead to each other's progress . like the software industry , the Aneesoft and ifunia , no matter who become the king ,They are always competing with each other and make progress each other.

In my opinion , Iphone and adroid , no one can dominate all phone market for a long time , the IT industry is hangeable and fast , No matter which industry , No matter who become the king, competing with each other can lead to each other's progress . like the software industry , the Aneesoft and ifunia , no matter who become the king ,They are always competing with each other and make progress each other.

I should know as I invented them both.

Hallelujah! I was so confused about what phone to buy, but now I have seen the light. Where would we be without investment banks?

Nokia has just announced the departure of their CEO to be replaced by....wait for it.... a Microsoft exec!

Foreshadowing closer relations between the two companies?

"Piper Jaffray said while Apple’s smartphone market share will top out between 20% and 30%, it will grab around 50% of profit, due to its higher margin on handsets."

It's a no brain-er that Apple is making 50% profit from iPhone, considering the sweat blood shops their contractors (a.k.a Foxconn) are running in China, where the poor workers are locked up in their dormitory and the only place they can wander is the factory roof top where they can free themselves by jumping off the roof.

Hooray to the 50% profit for Apple, shame the Google who doesn't dare to suck up to the Chinese government for that big piece of profit.

For every piece of iPhone you buy, there is blood to be squeezed from.

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