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Another poll knockback for Labour (3News-Reid Research)

National 49.7% (-0.6%)
Labour 27.2% (-2.2%)
Green 12.7% (+2.5%)
ACT 1.4% (+0.8%)
Maori 1.5%  (+0.9%)
United Future 0.0% (nc)
Mana/Internet 1.8% (+1.0%)
NZ First 3.6% (-2.0%)
Conservative 2.8% (+0.5%)

Yet another poll has shown National with enough support to govern alone, and Labour dipping.

The 3News-Reid Research survey was taken June 19 to June 25 as National and the NZ Herald pressed new donation allegations from Donghua Liu — but did not capture reaction from Mr Liu and the NZ Herald backing down from their original claims, nor Labour's new tax policy.

Labour leader David Cunliffe has labelled the Liu allegations a smear campaign, and challenged Mr Liu and other accusers to front with evidence.

Whatever its merits. The Greens — up 2.2% as Labour fell 2.5% — appeared to be the beneficiaries of the latest Liu scandal.

The poll also found Mana and the Internet Party on a combined 1.8%, enough to bring two MPs into Parliament if Mana leader Hone Harawira holds Te Tai Tokerau (where one survey found him behind Labour's Kelvin Davis).

NZ First (3.6%) and the Conservatives (2.8%) both fell short of the 5% MMP threshold.

This morning, Prime Minister John Key said a decision would be made "relatively soon" on his party's strategy for the Auckland seat of East Coast Bays, where Conservative leader Colin Craig is standing against National's Murray McCully. 

The poll gave Mr Key his highest rating as preferred Prime Minister since November 2011, with 46.7% support.

 Mr Cunliffe was down 0.2 percent to 9.6%.

Curiablog summary

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds: Not specified

Dates: June 19 to June 25

Party Support

National 49.7% (-0.6%)
Labour 27.2% (-2.2%)
Green 12.7% (+2.5%)
ACT 1.4% (+0.8%)
Maori 1.5%  (+0.9%)
United Future 0.0% (nc)
Mana/Internet 1.8% (+1.0%)
NZ First 3.6% (-2.0%)
Conservative 2.8% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

National 63
Labour 35
Green 16
Maori 3
United Future 1
Mana 2
NZ First 0
Total 122
This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

CR – National 63 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 65/122 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
CL – Labour 36 + Greens 16 + Mana/Internet 2 = 54/122 – eight fewer than minimum needed to govern
C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 0/124
On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Comments and questions

trust tax changes won't go down well with many in country. we are a country of trusts, and not just those on 150K. Lot of working people who have set up trusts for relationship purposes or asset protection will be unhappy.

To be honest, the trust changes will only impact where income is retained by the trustees and if it is an income generating trust in the first place. Your standard trust holding the family home won't be affected.

problem is every trust with assets is a potential income earning trust ie sell house-put money in bank.

And unless the beneficiaries earn near or over $150k then any interest income is allocated to them and taxed at their marginal rates. So no tax at 36%.

NEVER trust a TRUST, for they are setup only by people who want to rort the tax system and/or control other peoples lives from the grave.

"NEVER trust a TRUST, for they are setup only by people who ... control other peoples lives from the grave."

Absolutely - we used to get to make our final wishes known with a will and testament but seeing as the courts seem to want to interfere with our choices, then for sure I am happy to choose the trustees and make it clear thru my statement of wishes what my choices are without someone deciding that the courts have ultimate jurisdiction over my estate.

My wife and I built the wealth and sure as hell, we are going to decide who receives it.

if you are one of those people that separate re-partner separate re-partner... or have a child with an addiction then a trust is very useful. Many trustees do not distribute income but chose to pay tax at the trustee rate retaining earnings in the trust. Welcome to 36% tax rate middle NZ!

Inland Revenue stats show that they have 323,300 tax filing trusts, hardly an insignificant number. That affects a lot of Kiwi's.

I find it amazing that in an interview on RNZ this morning, Mike Williams said that Labour would find this result quite comforting.

Probably because 2/3rd's of Labour want Cunliffe rinsed and gone...

At least Cunliffe has some job security until the 21st…

Although, this is a very sorry indictment on at least two counts for the Labour Party…

Firstly, that a once proud and credible Labour Party actually got themselves into such a situation in the first place. And secondly, the lack of talent waiting in the wings means Labour are forced into an election with a lame duck leader 2/3rds of the caucus don’t like, or respect.

Worse, the entire Labour Party morale is such that OSH and the ERA really should investigate workplace bullying and excessive stress levels in the workplace within Fraser House. Being forced to work in a toxic workplace at such a time, would not be nice and more staff are likely to resign in the lead up to the election.

…and these people can’t turn to the unions for help. They shouldn’t lose their jobs through what amounts to constructive dismissal – they need assistance from OSH and the ERA.

Come on Cunliffe get Labour down to a single know you can do it...just keep talking

My take on it is that if Labour's intelligentsia [sic] hadn't panicked and made the disastrous decision to dump David Shearer for David Cunlife, but had allowed him a bit more time to grow into the role and become familiar to New Zealanders, and if they had dumped the lawyer's CGT policy for a more sensible targeted taxation policy aimed at property speculators, they would now be in the lead and have won this election. And I'm sure there will be many in Labour who know that.

Two Davids - one is seen as a self-serving arrogant pontificating hypocritical prick while the other is seen as a decent but weak and waffling loser.

Bring on the third David!

Cunliffe still has time.....

Still TOO MANY career Pollys in the Liebour caucus - new young blood is needed for youth interest in NZLP

Won't trouble Cunliffe, one teensy bit, because he's been in a state of denial from day-one.

CL - Centre-Left?

What is "Centre" about the coalition of the envious? Labour WERE centre-left, a long time ago. It is now Labour 2014 with Cunliffe in charge (sic). They constructively-dismissed Jones, and, after yesterday, OConnor must be in their sights again.

Labour left the centre a long time ago.

Winston Peters, not Colin Craig, is the only MP with the intelligence to be warning us of the danger threatening this country from the policy of big money buying preferential immigration.

Multculturalism? The theories have done enormous damage overseas - but we're still slavishly endorsing them.?

NZ- now The Stupid Country, where the mindless bay slogans like "xenophobia ", while we watch our moral and cultural heritage under attack.

And it's no accident, is it?

Winston is a Lion in opposition and a lap-dog in government. He's been in Government 3X and what has he achieved?
He's as useful as a cup of water to a drowning man.

Of couse it may well be that Labour doesnt want to win this election.
Short term and shallow thinking means the bubble is going to burst. Basing an economic model on an earthquake and cows is not the way to sustainable economic growth.
Even stephen Joyce would have to concede that the future looks rather bleak when you look at recent economic growth patterns shown in his regional economic activity report.