Auckland will dominate as NZ heads toward 5.3m by 2031

Aucklanders: there will be more of them, says Stats NZ

Of every 100 people in New Zealand, 38 will be living in Auckland in 2031 compared with 34 in 2011, Statistics New Zealand said today.

New sub-national population projections indicate Auckland will continue to be New Zealand's fastest-growing region and account for three-fifths of the country's population growth between 2011 and 2031.

Auckland would then have almost 2 million of New Zealand's 5.2 million people.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) is projected to account for two-thirds of Auckland's growth, and net migration (arrivals minus departures) the remaining one-third.

Of New Zealand's 16 regions, only Auckland will have more births in 2027-31 than in 2007-11. But all regions will have more deaths as the population ages.

"Auckland has a slightly younger population than other regions, and younger populations tend to have more births and relatively fewer deaths," population statistics manager Andrea Blackburn says.

Of New Zealand's 67 territorial authority areas, 44 are projected to have more people in 2031 than in 2011.

However, population growth rates will slow over the projection period for all areas because of the contrasting trends between births and deaths.

The fastest growth between 2011 and 2031 is expected in Selwyn and Queenstown-Lakes districts (up an average of 1.9% a year).

Despite an estimated population loss of 8900 in the year ended June 2011, Christchurch city is projected to increase by an average of 1500 a year during 2012-16 and 2,500 a year during 2017-31.

The projections are not predictions, but an indication of the size and composition of the future population.

Statistics NZ produces low, medium, and high growth projections for every local area every two to three years to assist planning by communities, local councils, and government.

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We desperately need a more populated Auckland and a city with 'all the trimmings' if we hope to become the worlds most liveable city - we are competing for international talent and arrivals.

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It's very odd indeed that NZ Herald screams from the balcony about their so called 'exodus' yet when we get news of future population growth etc - they relegate it to the sub sections - hmmmmmmmmmmmm

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Auckland is not really a liveable city.

First, Auckland does not have enough green space. Instead of parks having been planned as centre pieces of the city from inception, as most Empire cities were, Auckland parks were after-thoughts, located on marginal land, as if no one ever expected Auckland to grow beyond being a port town. Meyer's Park (previously a shanty town, bought for the city by the Meyers family) is tucked out of the way in a gully. Albert Park is difficult to access. The Gorge is a cemetary. The Botanical Garden is not actually in the CBD proper.

Even though I live in the CBD myself, I still need a car. The best shopping is outside the city, in the suburbs. To get there, you have no choice but to drive, as public transport is not enough,since it doesn't really work. Yet very few city apartments have car spaces.

Building codes are another serious problem. Apartments are simply too small, too few, too expensive, and not ergonomically designed. Balconies are rare, expensive and dangerous. Many apartment windows do not open sufficiently to allow proper ventilation. Kitchens are tiny, and too closely located to apartment fixtures and furnishings. And air conditioning and heating are also rare. Developers are clearly building to the minimum standard and creaming profits.

Zoning regulations are also in danger of destroying the city - Grey's Ave, particularly Pitt and Vincent Street, which are premium tree-lined are residential areas which could be easily gentrified. But they have been zoned for the sex and liquor trade. The local brothels attract shabby clientelle and destroy the environs, driving out up-market residents. Once it gets a foothold, the sex trade usually extends, and is almost impossible to root out. That will spell the death of these areas.

If Auckland is to be a world city, it needs to attract quality residents with quality housing stock. Otherwise, it will deteriorate into a sprawling ghetto before it is allowed to develop the character it aspires to. Failing that, it will become a broken slum, run for the convenience of slum-lords and brothel owners. Once that happens, the sordid character of Auckland will be very difficult to change.

Make Auckland a better city, with better codes and standards, and better amenities, before it's too late.

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As the only non aucklander here I would like to point out that the London effect is well and truly underway in NZ. Auckland is a lovelly place to visit but I would hate to live there (I did for several years and dont want to repeat the exercise).

As the most populous city in NZ, Auckland is syphoning a growing amount of funding and energy out of the rest of the country which is where 2/3rds of New Zealanders live (yes Auckland isnt the centre of the universe like a growing number of jaffas would have you believe).

Sadly Auckland is where business is going and also jobs. This brings more people and leads to an upwards spiral ultimately at the expense of other cities in NZ. Sadly the cost of living in Auckland is horrific - home prices are stratospheric and you need a car to go anywhere as public transport is at best abysmal.

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What effect are these new population projections going to have on the 'superannuation' debate? Will we have more younger people around to support the oldies making National Superannuation more affordable for the nation? I see that there is a projection by the Dept. of Stats. that the death rate may start to outpace the birthrate in later years. That's got to make National Super more affordable, correct?

I also see that the Dept. of Stats are being very careful to point out that their numbers are [b]projections[/b] not predictions. Try telling that to the Treasury and the blabbertariat in the media e.g. Bernard Hickey, who take these projections as unshakeable Gospel truths about what the population will be in the future and that we need to start panicking about their implications now.

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