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Blood Diamond - Barclays Bank and LIBOR

I am a total political banking geek. As all decisions in banking are ultimately political and I quite like politics and money - in reverse order and how they relate. Understanding banking is one of the reasons I follow politics. Interest rates make people happy or sad, richer or poorer. Control an interest lending or borrowing rate and you control a government, its policy and with it the voters. Conflicts between borrowers mortgage rates and lenders savings rates, old and young(er) are fascinating in any economy.

I deal with banks every day in my job for some ten years often at a Senior level and to this day have never met anyone from a Compliance division despite even taunts worldwide in every meeting internationally when it gets sticky and oblique that I attend that banks don't even have people in the Compliance division, just computer based algorithms and tick boxes. For research purposes and out of desperation in dealing with the invisible "men" I popped a few calming Panadol and even applied for a rather Senior job in the Compliance division of an international bank here a few years ago just to see whom I would physically meet. It was a remarkable experience. I had three very formal interviews really about nothing and still then never met anyone I would have theoretically worked with. It remains one of life's mysteries who mans the Compliance divisions of banks.

Generally I have no sympathy for borrowers as they borrow in a competitive market and contractually accept floating or fixed interest rates. Usually to buy an over leveraged house most cannot really afford which pushes up housing prices for genuine borrowers with C.harlie Ash whom have to bid not against another person, but their credit line. Yes, I am a devout saver. Most of my clients are savers or investors and if a borrower then business not of the bog standard residential property type.

My opinions are pro-saver and I believe a large amount of lending should never be made as the borrowers are not worthy of having the money and are a contingent disaster on a bank's balance sheet.

Like a good politico-banking geek tonight I rushed home 100m from the bar from the fabulous State of Origin match to watch Bob Diamond's testimony on CNN and sat still through the whole thing until the three hour coverage was over on the news channels I subscribe to. It was a fabulously solid performance and I often wondered why Diamond quit, although questioning would be even more rigorous and snarky if he hadn't resigned and deemed the events "reprehensible". Diamond answered all relevant questions from academically capable MPs, sidestepped whining irrelevance from stupid, emotional MPs and took responsibility where he had to with comprehensive dialect with the more intelligent M's. The MPs in general were tossers reading from cheat sheets.

The funniest but most pertinent moment for me was when Diamond was accused by Scottish MP John Thurso of being like loathsome English Cricketer Geoff Boycott, two and a half hours at the crease and not a lot of movement. That in itself was a compliment. Diamond then kept his innings going til the Umpire pulled stumps.

Remember these are MPs who ultimately rely on happiness and sadness of savers and lenders to make them feel wealthier or poorer at election time to vote for them. Think along those lines and politicians and bankers become totally reliant beasts. Property being the largest asset and expenditure of most constituents. In some electorates it is SME - small and medium sized businesses but they are few and far between. Banking is therefore crucial to their re-election chances. MPs walk a thin line criticizing bankers as they rely on them and influence their profits through confidence in the credit markets.

Diamond is right, Barclays is just the tip of the iceberg. In a "competitive" market for lending there must be collusion by definition for the allegations he quit over to ring true over LIBOR. Consumers have a choice and can go somewhere else.

Compliance in a bank is a moving often impossible target. It is very well in hindsight to say they "should" have found the LIBOR behaviour. Some of it may be group bloke think, well hidden and ultimately criminal. Authorities will now investigate that. Diamond took the stick up his bum as any head of such a large institution should on that salary and bonus. Middle Managers and a "Gang of 14" appear to have hidden the problems from Upper Management. Diamond seems to have sacked the 14 before he quit.

The easy target and cheap MP pop is bitching out about Diamond's salary and bonus. Barclays is a huge multi-national organization that not many people worldwide are remotely qualified to run. I have dealt with them on a Middle Management level and they are no less or more competent than any other bank, nor their fees or rates from what I have seen higher or lower. Diamond was paid a fortune to take this three hour utter buggering from MPs, many whom don't even understand the banking industry so I did not feel sorry for him. He was accused of being incompetent by MPs who claimed constituents have asked if they should get their money out of Barclays. Then MPs whom whinged Diamond should donate his money to charity so people would like him more.

MPs scrutinizing the "culture" of banks makes me laugh. Are they kidding? What about their culture as law makers? A banker bonus and profit culture is no more or less worthy or cretinous than an MP or Political Party who takes taxpayers' money and buys an election with outrageous and poorly costed spending promises they may or may not keep. They call that "sensible" in politics and all entirely moral and legal. It is a shame Diamond as a banker didn't round out on some of the UK MPs dodgy Parliamentary cultural practices in this session.

Remind us not, nothing will make the world love bankers more. It is a stupid proposition. If I was a banker I would take all the money and run. Giving it to starving African orphans will not redeem you. Why bother?

Bankers will never get any love. Until normal Joe Bloggs' out there require a mortgage for a house they cannot really afford. Then banks are marvelous and the bank manager is your best mate. Until again the interest rates increase. Again, why? Political. Banks are in essence simple beasts. Risk, rates and lending drive the bank profit, dividends, salaries and bonuses. If people and corporates do not pay them back, the banks fail.

The entire community therefore is responsible for banking failure. Although no one wants to ever admit that. MPs trade off bashing banks and bankers.

If people pay back their contractual obligations then there is not a problem as borrowers and investors get their money back and the bank makes a profit. The GFC underlying was caused by a domino effect of people who did not pay back their mortgages and other obligations wrapped up in more complex products. The basics were easy - mortgage default.

But enough of that. Diamond is the first of many I think who will face the grill. Barclays will be the first in a long line of alleged banks. A geek during the commentary suggested their exposure in civil action would be £5-6 billion, then in the next breath said it would be hard to prove. Barclays and bank shareholders can breathe a bit easier. If anything the courageous savers should get the payout, one assumes their interest rates have been lower than they should have been on margin.

Of more interest to New Zealand in following the tweet feed I saw one from chatty National MP Melissa Lee. After further interrogation of where she was situated Lee told me to look three rows back from Diamond so I did and found her on CNN - the participants from Lockwood's Speaker tours. Here they are in the Daily Mail. Making news this week along with hipster Laura McQuillan's now famous disco pants.

Good to see our left wing anti-business MPs behaved themselves accordingly refraining from protest. I don't know how Parliamentary it is to tweet from the room (but witnessed UK stiffs doing it) but it was yet another example of how global social media really is. I doubt Fenton will worry but watch the loathsome Hughes go back to Parliament and whinge about banks, corruption and interest rates when Parliament resumes. I am surprised he hasn't already asked for an inquiry from this seating position.

After hours of interrogation by UK MPs on Diamond, I may ask, are New Zealand MPs up to the task of being televised and monitored on their performance vs a trained, intelligent CEO of the quality of Diamond? These UK MPs weren't that great and did not ask all the "right" questions. How would our lot go? .

Cathy Odgers is a lawyer based in Hong Kong. She blogs as Cactus Kate.

More by Cathy Odgers

Comments and questions
18

So, in your view Cathy, everyone else is greedy, corrupt and/or incompetent.
What a smug, arrogant piece of writing. I'm sure you're very pleased with both it, and yourself.

Actually, it's a nice piece of writing #1, and if anythings sums up what a mess the West is in today, and why, it's the highlighted paragraph. I wish someone would put it on sticky outside the door of our parliament so the MP's mentioned might be able to read it when they get home from their junket.

I continue to find it absolutely incredible that Cathy is apparently a top (or to use her favourite, ever-capitalised word "Senior") lawyer. She never fails to display a rambling, barely coherent writing style and the standard of grammar you'd expect from an 8 year old in a decile 1 school.

She makes some good points though and I totally agree with her comments about the standard of questioning and her priceless description of the MPs as "tossers reading from cheat sheets".

Tossers of the same ilk were very much to the fore at the Committee enquiry into News International and their huffing and puffing and feeble questions were effortlessly batted away by the Murdochs. The QC doing the questioning at the Leveson enquiry didn't seem much better despite his cool yellow framed glasses and air of smug, detached intellectual superiority. Looked like a Guardian reader to me.

LIBOR takes out the min and max then averages the rest.... when will we see the other big banks get dragged into this... they all played a part in farming us poor wage slaves

Wow. What a lot of hot air a poorly written article can evoke. Shame Anonomous Five takes it upon her/himself to attack Decile One Schools. My own experience is that poor grammar is now the domain of anyone who has become part of the modern social media epidemic. I can assure you that poor grammar comes out of schools of all decile rankings. Pity A5 could not stick to the self serving article.

A comma is required after "Pity", unless, you are asking the readers to feel sorrow for the poster, A5.

I gave up reading after the first few paragraphs - the use of English is so mangled that the message is indecipherable.

If you cannot express yourself effectively what is the point in inflicting your opinions on the rest of us?

Interesting, NBR - why was my last comment taken down then - mhubbard@ihug.co.nz

Good to see NBR reacting positively to remove spam.

Yes, there right to remove my post, but my defence of bloggers against the pedants above was a valid one.

I wonder if NBR could put the comment back up, minus the link to my site (because let's pretend the Internet doesn't exist, like Granny Herald).

Or was the fact this was first a blog post, before being published here, the problem? Because that would be even more absurd?

Just interested, NBR?

Oh, see what I mean about blogging quickly ... Their right ...

When all else fails, have a conversation with yourself.

Mmm. Well, talking to myself again, if nothing else to annoy #12 and #9, I feel a post to my own blog coming on about the cowardice, and pointlessness, of anonymous commenters. I don't spam; I'm always on topic. And a post, also, about the MSM in general, which persists running Internet sites operating on the raison d'état that the Internet doesn't exist. And then wondering why their business model is failing. Although Granny Herald has always been worse at this, until my post this morning NBR has never deleted a comment of mine, I'll give them that. I'd just be interested, for future reference to know what the problem was. I'm a bit dog and bone on these things. In the comments fields, the Internet is one big discussion: you're either part of it, or excluding yourself from it. More than 50% of my online time is now spent on blogs, less and less on the MSM ...

What goes around, comes around; when it comes to Bob Dimond. He gave the impression that he could save Lehman Bros., but threw them an anchor instead of the promised lifesaving ring. He rogered poor ol' Dick Turd (or was it Furd?).

LIBOR is used to price over $800 trillion of products. The major banks have been manipulating it on a daily basis since 2005.

To be dismissive of this conduct is ignorant. This was a criminal act and should be punished accordingly.

The reality is that the vast majority of banks are insolvent and the only thing saving them is taxpayer handouts and mark-to-myth accounting.

In my opinion the interbank market is still frozen. The situation in Europe is extremely complicated, banks are not lending money to other banks few quarters ago (which shows that there is no confidence in the current financial system). Although the situation in America and England is better than in Europe, we know that fear no knows limits and is often irrational like the sometimes existing panic, as we have seen during these last years of crisis.In the case of Barclays, personally I think that one of the causes that occurred to behave worse than rest of the sector (comparing the situation with other banks) is the sale of Barclays Global Investors (BGI) division to Blackrock in June of 2009.
This is the evolution of the major British banks in the last five years
-Standard Chartered (-12%)
-HSBC (-38%)
-Barclays (-76%)
-Lloyds (-94%)
-Royal bank of Scotland (-96%)

Knowing that cases of Lloyds and RBS are extreme (they received massive aid to avoid bankruptcy), we see that Barclays has performed six times worse than Standard Chartered and twio times than HSBC.I think the process to bring back the bank to the elite and restore confidence to the market is make real transparency and much work from the new Board of Directors.

http://oribe90.wordpress.com/

This is an interesting article, until she gets to the part where she patently does not know what she is talking about:

"The entire community therefore is responsible for banking failure. Although no one wants to ever admit that. MPs trade off bashing banks and bankers.

If people pay back their contractual obligations then there is not a problem as borrowers and investors get their money back and the bank makes a profit. The GFC underlying was caused by a domino effect of people who did not pay back their mortgages and other obligations wrapped up in more complex products. The basics were easy - mortgage default."

It's time to wake up love - this is an enginnered crash. Pull your head out of the sand now because the global financial system is coming down right now and the truth will soon be undeniable and you'll have egg on your face.

Yesterday 07:43 AM
Incremental Risk Charge: An analysis: Going forward how much will the Libor scandal cost Barclays Bank and who will be chosen to lead its affairs.
Answer: See No.5 below.
In the aftermath of the Barclays Bank Libor scandal (financial Hiroshima) and their greed and subsequent cover up tactics, we studied the future impact on the bank and its franchise in the next 6-8 months using the ## Monte Carlo method and the capital asset pricing model. This has been developed using variable analysis on a common measure of the volatility of its ongoing business, i.e. its beta--which is determined using linear regression. These have been applied to the latest audited Barclays Bank balance sheet, their Libor rate rigging scenario and inferences drawn with 95% accuracy. The result highlights the following 5 points:
1. In the next 12 months, as its market standing and franchise has suffered, the Barclays Bank group will have to make a loan loss provision of USD 5.75 billion.
2. Their combined exposure (including paper transactions) is USD 1.35 trillion which they need to unwind at the earliest and reconcile their financials/book of accounts within 24 months. Overall loan losses to be written off could be around USD 3.5 billion and thus their paid up capital will be affected.
3. Their International trade, LC and LC confirmation business, correspondent banking business will reduce by about 40 % in the next 12 months as their price/rate quotation/covenants/IM will be seen with suspect.
4. As a result of (3) above, their overseas operations will reduce (some businesses will have to close down) by at least 30 % globally. This will open up a new avenue wherein, in the next 24 months, their overseas business will very likely be acquired by 2 Chinese and 1 Australian banking consortium.
5. The above points indicate that they will definitely need UK Government bailout well within a year. The UK government is already planning to nationalize the bank and make it a pure local British deposit taking bank going forward with an Australian as its head. Deposits/customers will come back to the bank only if the banks' Investment Banking activities is completely spinoff. The Americans will make this happen.
## Methodology: I also used the Levy distribution - a continuous probability distribution which is unbounded below and above. The normal distribution is a special case of this with the parameter being one half of the variance. The Levy distribution, or Pareto Levy distribution, is increasingly popular in finance because it matches data well, and has suitable fat tails. The tail of the distribution decays like . Mean = and Variance = .