Canterbury’s post-quake rebuild will sustain the nation for several years yet.
An ANZ report scotches the idea the reconstruction is an economic flash in the pan that will end in the next year or two.
Perversely, the delays and frustrations of Cantabrians with insurers, repair companies and the glacial rebuild of the central city will be good for the whole country.
The ANZ report says there is a growing perception the economy will fall into a hole when the rebuild stimulus fades after 2017.
But the authors say the buildup has been slower than expected and will be slower on the downside.
“We suspect the rebuild will take longer, but irrespectiv of thate, people know it will peak in the coming years and this gives them time to adjust and plan accordingly.
“As the rebuild fades, so too will the negative impact of contractionary fiscal policy.
“Christchurch stimulus is currently being offset by fiscal austerity; the fiscal stance has been negative since 2010/11, and the stance is projected to be negative to the tune of 2.4% of GDP over the next four years. That’s a major headwind to the economy.
“The spill-overs from higher construction sector activity will take time to boost other sectors and diffuse through the wider economy,” ANZ says.
The bank also highlights other growth sectors such irrigation in the Canterbury region.