Conservatives big winners if threshold lowered - iPredict
Millionaire Colin Craig's Conservatives would have five seats in parliament if the threshold was lowered to 4%, according to users of the iPredict website.
As a result of current reviews of the MMP electoral system, traders think there is a 69% chance the threshold for seats in parliament will be reduced from 5% to 4%.
That means National would have 51 seats, Labour 42, Greens 13, NZ First 6, Conservatives 5, the Maori Party 2, and Mana 1.
Under that scenario, a 62-seat strong National-led government would be feasible with the support of NZ First and the Conservatives.
A Labour government would be possible if it went in coalition with the Greens and NZ First.
NZ First's support looks likely to be a major factor for the forming of the next government, with traders believing there is a 65% probability that the party will hold the balance of power.
As for party leaders, traders are giving ACT leader John Banks just a 25% chance of still being the party's leader at the next election.
Leaders of most of the other parties in parliament are expected to hold their positions with the exception of the Maori Party.
There is a 48% probability co-leader Pita Sharples will lead the party into the next election, while Tariana Turia is given a 45% chance.
As for the outcome, National is expected to win 40.6% of the vote, Labour 34.1%, Greens 10.7%, NZ First 5.1%, Conservatives 4%, ACT 1.5%, Maori 1.4%, Mana 1.2%, United Future 1.1% and Legalise Cannabis 0.5%.
Traders believe the Maori Party will win two electorates and the Mana Party one, while the Greens, NZ First, Conservatives, United Future and ACT will all fail to win one.