Conservatives big winners if threshold lowered - iPredict

Colin Craig

Millionaire Colin Craig's Conservatives would have five seats in parliament if the threshold was lowered to 4%, according to users of the iPredict website.

As a result of current reviews of the MMP electoral system, traders think there is a 69% chance the threshold for seats in parliament will be reduced from 5% to 4%.

That means National would have 51 seats, Labour 42, Greens 13, NZ First 6, Conservatives 5, the Maori Party 2, and Mana 1.

Under that scenario, a 62-seat strong National-led government would be feasible with the support of NZ First and the Conservatives.

A Labour government would be possible if it went in coalition with the Greens and NZ First.

NZ First's support looks likely to be a major factor for the forming of the next government, with traders believing there is a 65% probability that the party will hold the balance of power.

As for party leaders, traders are giving ACT leader John Banks just a 25% chance of still being the party's leader at the next election.

Leaders of most of the other parties in parliament are expected to hold their positions with the exception of the Maori Party.

There is a 48% probability co-leader Pita Sharples will lead the party into the next election, while Tariana Turia is given a 45% chance.

As for the outcome, National is expected to win 40.6% of the vote, Labour 34.1%, Greens 10.7%, NZ First 5.1%, Conservatives 4%, ACT 1.5%, Maori 1.4%, Mana 1.2%, United Future 1.1% and Legalise Cannabis 0.5%.

Traders believe the Maori Party will win two electorates and the Mana Party one, while the Greens, NZ First, Conservatives, United Future and ACT will all fail to win one.  

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4 Comments & Questions

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Need to clarify who are "traders"

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the punters that use iPredict are not a cross section of the voting public; unfortunately...

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If threshold lowered, voter distribution will change to support the otherwise marginalised sentiment. 5% obstructs honest voting. As long as electorate votes are 50% of the seats there will always be a skew against proportional repseseantion. The change from 5 to 4 percent is not and cannot be predicted based on what happened last time. If voter sentiment was proportional the cannabis party would have had two members inthe house in the 1990's. Doubtless that respresentation (and media attention) would have tempered the hardline prohibitionists that have maintained status quo we celebrate to today in unintended consequences such as in "Siege" and thousands of young voters mostly male, mostly maori being disenfranchised and alienated.

Who would vote for that!

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Willie - anyone can become an iPredict trader by signing up for free at By last week, there were 7004 registered traders.

GP - it is true that iPredict traders are not a cross section of the community, but they do have money at stake and they are not being asked who they will vote for or who they want to win an election, but who they think will win. This is why iPredict will almost certainly be more accurate than random polls, as was the case in 2011 - see

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