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The economy has been tepid in the second half of the year and the sluggishness should extend into next year, the latest ANZ Truckometer indicator shows.
The latest report by ANZ senior economist Sharon Zollner says despite a bounce in October and November, in annual growth terms both Truckometer indexes agree the economy has lost momentum in recent months.
"The headwinds the economy is facing would make such a slowdown quite understandable," the report says.
"But the recent pick-up in traffic lends support to the assertion that we are not looking at a re-run of 2008.
"In addition, traffic data cannot be expected to pick up the Christchurch rebuild, which anecdotes and, increasingly, regional data suggest is starting to really kick into gear."
The truckometer uses traffic flows of light and heavy vehicles as economic indicators.
The heavy traffic index rose 1.4% in November, while the light index rose 0.7%, suggesting a negative third quarter could be followed by a "considerably better" fourth quarter.