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Election predictors show mixed forecasts

Differences between Pundit and iPredict forecasts illustrate one of the risks in basing projections on market behaviour: The assumption that markets are uniformly efficient and that all market participants are rational, with both of these assumptions having beenproven wrong many times.

iPredict Forecast
Five days from the nation’s general election, John Key’s National Party is forecast to be able to govern with the support of one of the Greens, ACT, Maori Party or UnitedFuture.

National is predicted to receive 48% of the total parliamentary vote (60 total seats), followed by Labour with 28.5%, the Greens at 11.7%, and New Zealand First with 4.7% of the vote.

The Greens are forecast to get a total vote share of 11.7%, which would boost its seats in Parliament from 9 to 14. In contrast, Labour would lose parliamentary seats from the current 42 down to 36 seats.

Chances of Winston Peters’ New Zealand First party which returning to Parliament, which currently has no seats, are up to 43%, up from 36% the previous week.

Pundit Predictions
Predictions released today from Pundit show a promising outcome for the National Party, with New Zealand First still under the percentage of votes required to make its comeback.

Predictions made by Pundit’s recent ‘Poll of Polls’ show National of having an absolute majority of the total vote, although it is a small one of 50.8%. Additionally, there is a 74% chance that National will get over 50% of the overall vote come election day.

Estimates for New Zealand First see the party receiving 3.8% of votes, with a 95% confidence rate that the party will get between 2.3% and 5.2% of the vote. However, predictions show only a 4% chance of New Zealand First receiving over 5% of the vote when Election Day finally arrives.

The Greens are also expected to rise in popularity with Pundit predicting the party to receive 11% of votes on Election Day, resting on the longer term prospects of whether they will be able to get their 12th to 15th ranked MPs into Parliament. 

More by Robert McCambridge