Forex trading: What’s coming next week

Nick McDonald

New Zealand Dollar
As I typed my last column saying I was bullish NZDUSD (the kiwi) for the week ahead, the kiwi was trading at 80.30. Today as I type the kiwi is trading at 82.85 – 255 pips higher. So is the move over?  Far from it. In fact, the kiwi is just lining up for its next push higher and I will be surprised if we don’t see it trading at 84.00 during the week of September 24. 

NZD also looks bullish versus the Japanese yen and the Aussie but don’t expect the Australian dollars to fall too far from here. AUDNZD is coming up to support and the best trades are versus JPY, USD and the EUR.

Longer term NZD prediction
Watch EURNZD to make new lows in the next 2-4 months and see it trading below recent lows put in at 1.5000.

US Dollar
The US Dollar decline is in full force and any pull backs are providing potential USD selling opportunities. We are having such a pullback right now and I expect another leg down in the week to come, hence the bullish prediction expected to continue on NZDUSD (strong kiwi, weak USD).  Also bullish on AUDUSD, GBPUSD and EURUSD plus bearish USDCAD as per below.

Key currency pairs to watch this week
Everything versus USD
AUDUSD – is set to rise from here.  Expect 1.0600 in the coming weeks (currently 1.0427) and expect the highs around 1.1000 to be tested in the coming months.
GBPUSD – Cable is one of the star performers in recent weeks and shows no sign of slowing. Sterling up and dollars down means GBPUSD is going higher again.
EURUSD – I am looking for 1.3200 in the next 1-3 weeks.

Last column’s predictions – right or wrong?
NZDUSD – behaved exactly as expected with a big rally to the upside which is still underway. 
CADJPY – hit 81.00 as predicted and is now taking a breather, 82.00 is next.
GBPJPY – broke out of the range and staged a 300+ pip move. Even better than expected.
EURJPY – was bullish as expected but did not pull back for the ideal entry point around 99.00. Missed the move.
USDCAD – broke 98.00 exactly as predicted and now pulling back into resistance and should start the next leg down from here… trade is hence just setting up.

Nick McDonald uses technical analysis and charting techniques to trade in forex markets, stock indices and commodities.
For training on the forex markets or to learn more, visit www.tradewithprecision.com

 

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3 Comments & Questions

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I doubt AUDUSD will get above 1.08 any time soon, there's a big supply level starting around 1.07.

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Your prediction of the kiwi hitting 89 US would seem to be on the cards but oh boy...big consequences for NZ

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When U.S. and Japan are printing more currency the value will keep going down. Beware , Beware !!!!! If other countries follow suit , their values will come down too and you get caught.

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NZ Market Snapshot

Forex

Sym Price Change
USD 0.7938 -0.0028 -0.35%
AUD 0.9043 -0.0037 -0.41%
EUR 0.6279 0.0014 0.22%
GBP 0.4961 0.0018 0.36%
HKD 6.1573 -0.0208 -0.34%
JPY 85.2570 0.0180 0.02%

Commods

Commodity Price Change Time
Gold Index 1248.5 1.960 2014-10-21T00:
Oil Brent 86.2 -0.850 2014-10-21T00:
Oil Nymex 82.5 -0.270 2014-10-21T00:
Silver Index 17.5 0.195 2014-10-21T00:

Indices

Symbol Open High Last %
NZX 50 5233.1 5284.3 5233.1 0.89%
NASDAQ 4359.2 4419.5 4316.1 2.40%
DAX 8934.5 8957.2 8887.0 0.38%
DJI 16406.0 16620.8 16399.7 1.31%
FTSE 6372.3 6395.2 6372.3 0.26%
HKSE 23300.5 23460.8 23088.6 1.37%
NI225 15038.2 15195.8 14804.3 2.64%