Gillard gone before next election - iPredict
Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard will be replaced as leader of the Labor Party before the next federal election, according to iPredict traders.
Ms Gillard is given a 66% chance of being ousted as leader, but there is no clear consensus on her successor.
However, there are three men in the running: former PM Kevin Rudd with a 27%, employment and workplace relations minister Bill Shorten on 17% and defence Minister Stephen Smith with 16%.
Opposition leader Tony Abbott, however, appears safe in his post with an 83% probability he will still be leader on nomination day.
Labor is expected to win 37% of first preference votes and the Green Party 12%.
The Liberal Party is predicted to win 31%, the Liberal National Party of Queensland 10% and the Australian National Party 9%.
A Liberal/National coalition would deliver 52% of the vote, with Labor getting 48%.
Overall, iPredict traders think there is an 80% chance there will be a Liberal prime minister, with just an 18% probability of a Labor leader.
Traders also do not think it is clear when the election will be held, but there is a 31% probability it will be held the Q2 2013, a 27% chance it will be held in Q1, 20% in Q4 and 9% in Q3.
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Comments and questions9
I believe Prime Minister Julia Gillard will win the next election, i don't know anybody that likes Abbott he behaves like a goose er uh er uh, Mr Turnbull where are you, we don't have a lot of time before an election is called.
Gillard is a dead man standing, but she has more balls than her pretenders, so she will face off to the inevitable slaughter by the Lib cos when due 2014
Gillard has a perennial foot in mouth problem a new leader could well turn the tide for Labour given Abbott is not liked at all.
i would have hated to have had some of these characters to depend on
in w.w.2, All typical abbott supporters, " cant see the wood for the trees"
he is not fit to lead a "hari-krishna" day out, let alone a country like australia, as a political orator he is embarrassing, his economic skills
are still in grade 3, couldnt organise a p*ss up in a brewery, never made a hard decision in his life, along side of julia gillard he is still on
" P" PLATES, SHE KNOWS where she is going ,"FORWARD", !! ABBOTT,
NEEDS A WHITE STICK",& A ZIMMER FRAME", WAKE UP PEOPLE,
Labour is sucking the life out any thing that moves this could apply to brains all so by looking at some of the comments posted on this page.
Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard is half wit squandering your children's future and your own for her own gain in any other country this lot would be hung out to dry.
the Australian Labor Party ha ha ha mummy as daddys, Julia Gillard childless..house burning pink batts rudd.people-smuggling supporters greens party and kingpin, Immigration Minister Chris Bowen .and not to Mention the independents who gave there support to a There will be no carbon tax under the government i lead shame on you two.
Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard would make a good red nose clown at Maccas with the Qualifications this women hasn't got.
The woomen should be sent to Russia or china to lead