Half a recession?

Latest research indicates New Zealand is only experiencing “half a recession,” research and consultancy company Windshift Communication says.

Windshift surveyed 500 New Zealanders aged 15+ and investigated six socio-economic groups to find that while businesses were pessimistic about the economy, New Zealanders in general weren’t.

Windshift’s research uses a proprietary 8 Tribes model that involves a wide range of focus groups from low-paid third world migrants to wealthy high achievers.

“Despite the demand-side taking a beating, with high fuel costs, mortgage interest rates and food prices, people’s confidence in their personal situation remains high. They generally see trouble as happening to other people, not to them,” director Jill Caldwell says.

The research seems to essentially argue that confidence in the job market is the reason for the disparity.

Having monitored the country’s mood since 1991, Ms Caldwell has detected little decline.

“Even though people are personally adapting to the current situation, they seem to see the worst of the effects as happening to somebody else,” she said.

“While employment remains high, and personal circumstances remain relatively comfortable, these sentiments will remain intact.

“What we might call the supply-side of the household economy is OK right now – give or take a few investment companies.

“People on lower incomes talked about taking on more work or moving elsewhere to take up more lucrative work – because they can. It’s still out there to take on.”

The research also found people not eating out as much, implying that summer barbecues, home entertaining and picnics will become even more popular.