Only 1% of New Zealanders expect the Hobbit film to be a box office flop, according to a UMR Research poll released today.
UMR’s fortnightly Omnibus Survey shows 84% of New Zealanders expecting that it will be successful at the box office, including 64% who believe it will be a major success. 15% are unsure whether it will be a success or failure.
The numbers suggest, however, that the film may face challenges in terms of translating this optimism into actual attendance.
Only 18% of New Zealanders say that they have been closely following the build-up to the Hobbit movie.
To put this in context, interest in the build-up to the Hobbit ranks only 108th out of the 112 news stories UMR has tracked interest in so far this year, and 871st out of 896 news stories tracked since 2003, UMR says.
The news may give TV3 pause (though NBR doubts it) as the network prepares for a stonking three and a half hours' coverage of The Hobbit's premiere in Welllington tomorrow (a special from 4pm to 6pm, followed by a 3News Special live from the red carpet 6pm to 7.30pm fronted by Samantha Hayes and John Campbell, and live-streaming throughout via 3News.co.nz/Hobbit; TV One will cover the premiere from 5pm).
As TV3 reporter David Farrier quips, the network's marathon coverage will be longer than the film itself. How long can you interview Richard Taylor? The nation may be tested.
The UMR Research Nationwide Omnibus Survey was conducted November 22-26. It has a nationally representative sample of 750 New Zealanders 18 years and over.