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Hobbit poll shows Kiwis think film will do well, but not that interested

Only 1% of New Zealanders expect the Hobbit film to be a box office flop, according to a UMR Research poll released today.

UMR’s fortnightly Omnibus Survey shows 84% of New Zealanders expecting that it will be successful at the box office, including 64% who believe it will be a major success.  15% are unsure whether it will be a success or failure.  

The numbers suggest, however, that the film may face challenges in terms of translating this optimism into actual attendance.

Only 18% of New Zealanders say that they have been closely following the build-up to the Hobbit movie.

To put this in context, interest in the build-up to the Hobbit ranks only 108th out of the 112 news stories UMR has tracked interest in so far this year, and 871st out of 896 news stories tracked since 2003, UMR says.

The news may give TV3 pause (though NBR doubts it) as the network prepares for a stonking three and a half hours' coverage of The Hobbit's premiere in Welllington tomorrow (a special from 4pm to 6pm, followed by a 3News Special live from the red carpet 6pm to 7.30pm fronted by Samantha Hayes and John Campbell, and live-streaming throughout via; TV One will cover the premiere from 5pm).

As TV3 reporter David Farrier quips, the network's marathon coverage will be longer than the film itself. How long can you interview Richard Taylor? The nation may be tested.

The UMR Research Nationwide Omnibus Survey was conducted November 22-26. It has a nationally representative sample of 750 New Zealanders 18 years and over.

Comments and questions


I'm dreading the wall-to-wall TV love-fest coverage of all things Hobbit tomorrow.
Will instead watch end to end commercial free Big Bang Theory :-)

Dammit - no Simpsons tonight!

The Hobbit is just PR hype. It is as boring as Dotcom, and the Shonky Donkey doing the forgetful quickstep.

Nothing is as boring as Dotcom.

Does TV3 do a news show?

Not really. It's an hour and a half opinion piece. Caroline Robinson is the only thing worth watching though.

When did TV 3 start doing a news show?

About 15 years ago... when TVNZ stopped doing theirs.

TV3's coverage of this really shows what sort of news show they are now. The fact that Kim Dotcom was their lead story for weeks and then John Key's red shirt was also a massive news item for them. I used to be a big fan but have now moved to One as I can't stand there constant attacks on the government and the tabloid news they present.

Us Kiwis will get right into the Hobbit mood once the movie is released.

I can't wait to see this movie and I really hope it does well.

Given the high level of subsidies provided we sincerely hope the film is successful so we can recoup some of the cost - time will tell.

No subsidies, just a tax break. So we are already well ahead on the financial side and tourist revenue for the next few years will be worth even more.

Why stop at Hobbit mania when there's The Wombles of Wimbledon to come? Peter Jackson's The Man: purveyor of CGI eye-candy.

Nonetheless, TV3 morning news is much better than TV One's.

If I do go to the Hobbit thing, it will be to see how our wonderful scenery is portrayed. On some overseas trips, it has been the NZ scenery which gained the most comment.