iPredict picks five Internet-Mana Party MPs in post-election parliament

Hone Harawira (TV3)

For the first time the 7000 registered punters on Victoria University's political marketplace iPredict are picking the Internet-Mana Party will win five seats in the September 20 election, with Chris Yong joining Hone Harawira, Laila Harre, Annette Sykes and John Minto in Parliament. 

That boost for Internet-Mana comes despite Mr Harawira’s chances of winning Te Tai Tokerau falling to a new low of 71% (down sharply from last week’s 85%), although this is balanced by Ms Sykes’ chances of winning Waiariki improving to 34% (up from 27%). 

In other electorate contests, Labour has edged ahead again in Palmerston North, while National remains fractionally ahead in Port Hills.

Act’s probability of winning at least one electorate seat is 84% (down from 85% last week), and its expected electorate representation is 0.9 MPs (steady).  The market is pricing that its candidate David Seymour has an 83% probability of winning Epsom (down from 85% last week).

The Conservative Party, the Greens and NZ First continue not to be expected to win electorate seats.

The Maori Party is still expected not to get any MPs into parliament.

Meanwhile, the major parties’ vote shares have remained broadly steady over the past week: National is expected to win 44.7% of the party vote (up from 44.6% last week);  Labour is expected to win 28.3% (down from 28.6%); and the Green Party is expected to win 10.6% (up from 10.3%), meaning the combined Labour/Green vote is steady.

Of the  smaller parties, NZ First’s expected party vote is 5.5% (down from 5.8% last week), the Conservative Party is on 4.0% (down from 4.2%), Internet Mana is on 3.7% (up from 3.4%), Act is on 1.8% (steady), the Maori Party is on 0.7% (steady), UnitedFuture is on 0.2% (steady), the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party is on 0.2% (steady) and the Civilian Party is on 0.1% (steady).

Winston Peters’ NZ First is again picked to hold the balance of power between National/Act/UnitedFuture and Labour/Green/Internet-Mana, and expected to choose the former.

National now has an 83% probability of leading the next government, up from 81% last week.

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