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For the first time the 7000 registered punters on Victoria University's political marketplace iPredict are picking the Internet-Mana Party will win five seats in the September 20 election, with Chris Yong joining Hone Harawira, Laila Harre, Annette Sykes and John Minto in Parliament.
That boost for Internet-Mana comes despite Mr Harawira’s chances of winning Te Tai Tokerau falling to a new low of 71% (down sharply from last week’s 85%), although this is balanced by Ms Sykes’ chances of winning Waiariki improving to 34% (up from 27%).
Act’s probability of winning at least one electorate seat is 84% (down from 85% last week), and its expected electorate representation is 0.9 MPs (steady). The market is pricing that its candidate David Seymour has an 83% probability of winning Epsom (down from 85% last week).
The Maori Party is still expected not to get any MPs into parliament.
Meanwhile, the major parties’ vote shares have remained broadly steady over the past week: National is expected to win 44.7% of the party vote (up from 44.6% last week); Labour is expected to win 28.3% (down from 28.6%); and the Green Party is expected to win 10.6% (up from 10.3%), meaning the combined Labour/Green vote is steady.
Of the smaller parties, NZ First’s expected party vote is 5.5% (down from 5.8% last week), the Conservative Party is on 4.0% (down from 4.2%), Internet Mana is on 3.7% (up from 3.4%), Act is on 1.8% (steady), the Maori Party is on 0.7% (steady), UnitedFuture is on 0.2% (steady), the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party is on 0.2% (steady) and the Civilian Party is on 0.1% (steady).
Winston Peters’ NZ First is again picked to hold the balance of power between National/Act/UnitedFuture and Labour/Green/Internet-Mana, and expected to choose the former.
National now has an 83% probability of leading the next government, up from 81% last week.