Ken Ring still can't predict earthquakes - Skeptics
The 5.1 magnitude after shock last night was not the quake "Moon Man" Ken Ring predicted, the Skeptics Society's Vicki Hyde told NBR this morning.
She said the Society had always said aftershocks would be expected and that Mr Ring’s prediction had been for a huge earthquake just before noon on March 20, when the Skeptics, ACC and environment minister Nick Smith and corporate media trainer Sean Plunket had lunch at the Sign of the Kiwi in Christchurch - the highest stone building close to the February 22 epicentre.
(Earlier, the cafe's owner slightly undermined the event - and underlined the Moon Man's popular pull - by telling NBR there may be "some truth" to Mr Ring's claims.)
Ms Hyde said Mr Ring’s predictions had become more vague as March 20 neared and had changed his original prediction to a date range (19-21 March) and then to the possibility it might not happen at all.
Last night's quake was magnitude 5.1.
Originally on his website's earthquake chart, Mr Ring had predicted a "7+" quake for March 20.
Since the original Canterbury quake, there have been 22 aftershocks of 5.1 magnitude or greater; GNS scientists held that there was a 5% chance of one on Sunday.
“That’s kind of like having a weather forecast telling you to cancel your midday beach BBQ because it’s going to be sleety and hail and a terrible howling south westerly and it’s a beautiful fine day but sometime later that night a small shower goes through.”
She said when earthquakes were tracked against the full moon, there was no correlation between the two, something highlighted at the lunch, which Ms Hyde said went “very well” and was packed to over-flowing.
She said clinical psychologist Mark Ottley had spoken “very movingly” at the lunch about some of the issues he had seen with his patients who had had additional stress and anxiety heaped on them by what Ms Hyde called “pseudo-predictions”.
Ms Hyde said that her children had been hassled by their peers on the social networking site Facebook for suggesting that according to scientific data, Mr Ring could not predict earthquakes and that such knee-jerk reactions were “objectionable".
“I’ve lived through many end of the world events, in my lifetime, whether they were massive earthquakes or cometary impacts or the rapture, the end of the world or when Christ comes again, none of them have happened. This was another thing that didn’t happen,” she said.
Mr Ring could not be contacted for comment.
Geonet had an expected range of aftershocks of magnitude 5.0 and greater of zero to two, and of magnitude 4.0 to 4.9 of two to eleven, for the week of March 15 to March 21.
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Comments and questions148
Here is a summary of Ken's approach...
I predict an earthquake on 260 days out of the next 365. Also take into account that I allow 1-2 days leeway on either side. In a year of 365 days, I am in fact predicting 520 days of earthquakes. So, all I need is one earthquake to occur and I am proven correct.....too long for a tui billboard ?
Haha well said. Tui board slogan for sure!. Im still awaiting his reports on giant bats entering somewhere in which only Ring maintains the knowledge of where. Guess Sea Gulls could be mistaken for bats. People like Ring show why freedom of speech in many countries is axed.
he didn't change it,its been like that since day one,19-21.Stop bullying this guy and get a life!!at least hes trying to help people unlike Geo Net!!
Sceptics and Nick Smith got it wrong - 5.1 was the biggest aftershock since 22 February and fell on 20 March and the timeline indicated by Ken Ring 3 days before and 3 days after isn't over yet.
Sceptics and Nick Smith got it wrong - 5.1 was the biggest aftershock since 22 February and fell on 20 March and the timeline indicated by Ken Ring 3 days before and 3 days after isn't over yet.
Ms Hyde (and Nick Smith) should go back and read Ken Ring's prediction - if they're going to spout off, they should at least get their facts right. The lack of tolerance and close-mindedness is spectacular. All of these people are coming across as Inquisitors who seem to forget that there is a right to free speech. How is it that politicians (and skeptics) can shoot their mouths off about whatever they like, but Ken Ring isn't allowed to say anything that they disagree with?.
If he's wrong. We all hope that he is and should be grateful her is not pleased he is for the wrong reason. Its 1 persons opinion, we all have an opinion to listen to him or not to listen to him. Thats MY opinion. If hes write, well..... I just hope he isnt cause my thought of the victims of this quake should be the ones out TRYING to prove him wrong. Again, thats my opinion
Say the ground is going to move. He made that prediction way back. Maybe the 22 feb moved a little and the 20 March was meant to originally be bigger but thank-fully we moved so much in feb that this one wont be as big.
maybe it's time for the sceptics and assorted geo-physicists to finally acknowledge their own bollocks and stop criticising others'.
Dont you just wish they could be a little more open minded and not so quick to condemn. Its the scientists vs. the astronomer types. Instead of getting together and discussing all aspects they do nothing but poke holes at each other.
Anonymous 2:02pm, it's not about free speech, it's about scaremongering. Is yelling 'fire' in a crowded theatre when there isn't one a free speech matter also?
Mr Ring is making public predictions and has a considerable following. He has caused unwarranted fear, when there is no statistical basis to his claims.
if it wasnt for geonet and other science based websites then you would not have known the size of last nights aftershock. instead you would run round praising Ring saying it was "the one". Its not ignorance its pure science. The moon was not at its closest nor furthest in japan and if i remember correctly they had a... what was it??? o yea a 9.0!!! yet lets not go into that has i feel deeply for the people of japan as i do my hometown chch who is being tormented by a muppet up in auckland!
I predict that theres going to be an earthquake in Ken's ring if he ever goes back to Christchurch. HAHAHAH the RIng that he's been talking oout of will be RINGING!!!! hahahahahaha
It is the same moon for the whole planet. Surely Mr Ring should have predicted the Japanese earthquake if he is so good at it.... I note that earthquake was no where near full moon.
You mean "astrologer" don't you? Astronomers are actual scientists. You moron. Why do you, and many more posting here, even feel able to comment on this issue. You don't know who does what, can't get basic terminology right or even spell basic words correctly. Shut up. Bugger off. Go learn some stuff, then come back and try again.
If your spelling is that bad, how can you even read this article? How can you even have an opinion if you're that ignorant?
I don't believe anyone would be stupid enough to join a Skeptics Society. not skeptic just cantankerous.
I don't get way you people still are finding ways to say he is wrong, He said there would be a earthquake on the 20th of march, and there was. He was right, maybe it wasn't exactly what he predicted but it was pretty damn close, knocked things over in our house, few things broken. And sure you can think he is a nutter and not believe his predictions, but stop trying to deny that he was correct. Because he was pretty damn close. He's not an idiot. Honestly I'm not even a believer or have any opinion, but I just hate how all these reports say how he is still wrong when he predicted a good size quake for the 20th of march and it happened.
I don't get way you people still are finding ways to say he is wrong, He said there would be a earthquake on the 20th of march, and there was. He was right, maybe it wasn't exactly what he predicted but it was pretty damn close, knocked things over in our house, few things broken. And sure you can think he is a nutter and not believe his predictions, but stop trying to deny that he was correct. Because he was pretty damn close. He's not an idiot. Honestly I'm not even a believer or have any opinion, but I just hate how all these reports say how he is still wrong when he predicted a good size quake for the 20th of march and it happened.
do you know how many "moon men" are out there. Ken ring may seem like a nutter, but they have thousands of people in the states saying the same thing.
there still could be a big one in the next 2 days, its not over yet, just like articles that came out yesterday at like midday saying ken ring was wrong about an earthquake today and then it happened later at night.
there still could be a big one in the next 2 days, its not over yet, just like articles that came out yesterday at like midday saying ken ring was wrong about an earthquake today and then it happened later at night.
Like it or not, his 'prediction' turned out to be correct.
John Campbell & the skeptics tried to do a big hassle on him -- trying to overstate the multi-day window he stated, trying to overstate the uncertainty as to location, depth, intensity etc.
These are all logical errors, by the way.
His predictions are probably based on pseudo-science; but falsifying the case against him, demonstrates how little rationality the skeptics possess.
Still want to know why ken ring let thousands of people die without having the courtesy to warn them. Is he racist?
Ken Ring is still effectively a tea-leaf reader - he is an ASTROLOGER. His methods cannot work no matter what anyone says. You may as well ask my cat when the next earthquake will be.
Isn't it already a science believe that gravifty affects the earth. The solar system planets are held in place by gavifty and there pull or push against other planets. The moon is held in place by gravifty. The tides happen due to the moons pull on the earth. The centre of the earth in liquid magma logically this would be affected? Wouldn't this movement put stress on the earths plates, clausing stress fractures (earthquakes). Seems some of this affect should be predictable. It wasn't that long ago people where burned at the stake for claiming the earth was round or the earth went around the sun. I think Ken's putting 1 and 1 together and getting much closer to 2 than the accepted systems. Good on you Ken your a brave man.
To all the people urging us to go back and read Ken Ring's original prediction, this is what he said originally (7 September 2010):
“Next year, the morning of 20 March 2011 sees the South island again in a big earthquake risk for all the same reasons. This date is the closest fly-past the moon does in all of 2011. The node arrives on the 20th at 9.44am. As that date coincides with lunar equinox this will probably be an east/west faultline event this time, and therefore should be more confined to a narrower band of latitude. The only east/west fault lines in NZ are in Marlborough and N Canterbury. All factors should come together for a moon-shot straight through the centre of the earth and targeting NZ. The time will be just before noon. It could be another for the history books.”
Was the earthquake yesterday in the morning? No. Was it one for the history books? No. Was it in Kaikoura or North Canterbury? Again no. He was wrong on all counts. He may have revised and broadened his prediction at a later date as Vicki Hyde said, but this original prediction was quite clear, and quite wrong.
Man people are Idiots. This Ringpiece is a fraud and anyone who believes it please visit my Website and buy my cure for cancer. Its only $20.00
Can you let us know what your cat says? I will send John Campbell around to interview it.
Much of what you say is correct - the moon definitely has an effect on the oceans, and it's not ridiculous to suggest it might have an effect on the Earth's crust. In fact it does: the surface of the Earth goes up and down about a foot in response to tidal effects. (Remember that the Earth is thousands of kilometres through, so this is an insignificant amount.) Do tidal forces cause earthquakes? It's an obvious question, and one which has been thoroughly investigated by seismologists. It's straightforward (if time-consuming) to plot the times of all the earthquakes against the times of full and new moons. This has been done, years ago. The answer is that there is a very slight correlation between the timing of spring tides and small, shallow earthquakes, but no relationship at all between tides and large earthquakes. This is something we already know. Knowing the position of the moon gives us no information on when we might expect the kinds of earthquakes people need to worry about.
You got it wrong. The 5.1 on 20 March was the 3rd largest aftershock of the 6.3 sequence (a 5.9 and a 5.7 were 1st and 2nd), and the 5.1 rated 12th equal with 6 other quakes in the full aftershock sequence since the 7.1. It was just another quake, certainly of no consequence compared to Ken Ring's publicity about it. Living in Christchurch, it rated as a "woke me but didn't get me out of bed" on my personal scale. On the other hand, Ken Ring and his supporters rate very much as the incompetent leading the insignificant.
Ken Ring was wrong because he predicted an event and it didn't happend. What's that? It did happen? Oh, well then perhaps the opposite of my first statement must apply. Of course I think he also said that the movement of the moon affects the water in the seas.That can't be true - the moon doesn't even touch the water.
The skeptics are the high priests of the scientific religion, now known as scientism. They should be more open minded, instead of condemning "heretics" to the stake.
The skeptics are the high priests of the scientific religion, now known as scientism. They should be more open minded, instead of condemning "heretics" to the stake.
You could always disregard what Ken Ring says if you choose. Get over it and get a life...
Well aren't the so called scientists screaming now ? They have spent yrs promoting there scientific background, so that there funding doesn't dry up, and along comes Ken Ring, who not only makes a mockery of there weather forecasts but also warns people of a real possibility of another quake months before hand. And our so called scientists said NOOOO he can't do that !!!! well he did and he has made you lot once again look like idiots. It's no wonder big companies take his advice when planning significant events. As it is HE who has the track record for accuracy Not our precious over inflated scientists.
Well aren't the so called scientists screaming now ? They have spent yrs promoting there scientific background, so that there funding doesn't dry up, and along comes Ken Ring, who not only makes a mockery of there weather forecasts but also warns people of a real possibility of another quake months before hand. And our so called scientists said NOOOO he can't do that !!!! well he did and he has made you lot once again look like idiots. It's no wonder big companies take his advice when planning significant events. As it is HE who has the track record for accuracy Not our precious over inflated scientists.
Can the scientists please tell us when the next major earthquake will be in Christchurch? Thought not.
there are a lot of us out there that love cars, but dont know how to change a flat tyre, some people do with limited knowledge, and some people are experts like the car dealers, but the point is you dont have to be an expert car dealer to change tyres, just learn form those who understand the mechanics of doing such a thing. Maybe Ken has the understanding of the way the earth is in balance with all forces, be they the moons influence, wind, gravity, pressure within the earths crust or unusual temperature zones around the world that have an influence upon the earth. We live in a very delicate balance between all these forces here on earth, so cut Ken a little slack you ignorant people.
too true
I still think Nick Smith is a greater threat to our peace of mind.
geonet only states facts, unlike ken freaking ring, hes tried being a magician a fortune teller and written a book on reading your cats paws, weather prediction is just another fraudulent skill he claims to have.
If your cats out of character, there probably is something going to happen.Animals senses are way better than ours.My cat sleeps on the back of his head, rains everytime.
What a joke, Ken Ring can't predict earthquakes, his theories have been tested on countless occasions and have proven wrong. But why take my word for it? Read it for yourself: http://sciblogs.co.nz/the-atavism/2011/03/01/ken-ring-cant-predict-earthquakes-either/
Ken Ring is taking advantage of already stressed and frightened people and is only causing trouble. I live in Canterbury and know of people who have spent money they do not have to get away from Christchurch this week because they believe in Ken Ring's theories. All of this to get away from a mere 5.1 tremor. Certainly not a quake for the history books as predicted by Ken.
So who are you going to listen to - New Zealand's top seismologists, who have extensively studied plate tectonics? Or a man who reads cats paws and predicts quakes based on dis-proven theories?
oh please, so weather forecasters get it wrong every day but your cat knows when its going to rain? seriously? cats sleep 90% of the time so i guess the chances of your cat getting the weather rite are just as good as ken rings.
do you not know that the aftershocks from the 7.1 triggered off a new fault line which was the 6.3.. so these are different aftershocks now!! so yes it is one of the biggest since the 6.3.. not the 7.1
do you not know that the aftershocks from the 7.1 triggered off a new fault line which was the 6.3.. so these are different aftershocks now!! so yes it is one of the biggest since the 6.3.. not the 7.1
I guess that everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but these forums certainly show where all the sceptics are hiding. Ken Ring seems to have broached the subject of being able to warn of impending quakes. Sure his 100% accuracy level is less than normal, but you have to ask yourself, who protests the loudest? What answers or opinions have the geologists given us? Or dont' they have the balls to have an actual opinion instead of running Ken Ring down?
This isnt news
Dear NBR staff
here is a little something you might not know.
Predict - Say or estimate that (a specified thing) will happen in the future or will be a consequence of something
Ken Ring predicted an earthquake. FACT!!!
At least change your headline.
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