Labour-Green bloc ahead of National – poll
The latest One News-Colmar Brunton poll has the Labour/Greens bloc edging ahead of National for the first time since the election.
As the largest individual party, National would still have first dibs on forming an MMP government.
But even if United and ACT retained their seats it would need the four Maori Party MPs on board to form a majority government, a scenario that might play in the back of Prime Minister John Key's mind as he manoeuvres around water rights and asset sales.
But in the complex matrix of MMP, even that scenario assumes the Maori Party maintains its three Maori electorate seats, which cannot be taken for granted given Labour ran a very close second in two of them at the last election.
The poll has National down 3% (since August 5) to 44%
Labour is up 2% to 34%, and Greens are steady on 12%.
Colin Craig's Conservative Party doubles support to 2% – level pegging with NZ First.
ACT and Mana on 1%.
If the numbers would translate to National winning 56 seats in Parliament, two less than the centre-left bloc of Labour (43) and the Greens (15).
If NZ First remained under 5% (again, no given with with party's track record of spiking around election time), National could govern if the minor parties retained their seats and it secured support from ACT (1), United (1) and the Maori Party (3).