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Labour-Greens bloc dramatically closes gap on National in new Roy Morgan poll

A Morgan Poll released today shows a large fall in support for National (46%, down 5% - the lowest since May) now with a significantly reduced lead over a potential Labour/Greens alliance (42%, up 3.5%) just two months before the September 20 election.

Support for National's coalition partners has changed little overall with the Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5%), Act NZ (0.5%, unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Support for the Labour Party is 30% (up 6.5%), but the Greens are down 3% to 12%. Potential ‘king-makers’ NZ First is 5% (down 1%), the Internet-Mana Party alliance is 2.5% (up 1%). Support for the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 1% (up 1%).

Longtime poll observers will take the result with a grain of salt (all the major polls were off-beam with their final 2011 election surveys). And it comes on the heels of a warning from Prime Minister John Key that 2011 polls overestimated National support.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 135pts (down 7.5pts) with 60% (down 5.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 25% (up 2%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. The New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is substantially higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence this week rose to 99.5pts (up 9.5pts).

Gary Morgan says: "Today's poll shows a definite tightening between the governing National (46%, down 5% in a fortnight) and a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (42%, up 3.5%). Crucially, Prime Minister John Key has this week ruled out doing an electorate deal with the right-wing Conservative Party led by Colin Craig in the seat of East Coast Bays, while at the same time encouraging National voters to support United Future Leader Peter Dunne in the seat of Ohariu and Act NZ candidate David Seymour in the seat of Epsom.

“In addition, Key has also floated the possibility of doing a deal with former National Party Cabinet Minister, and current New Zealand First (5%, down 1%) Leader, Winston Peters – but that Peters must state his position on a number of issues. Today’s NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows Peters may once again hold a key position in determining who the New Zealand Prime Minister is after September’s election – as long as NZ First can gain more than the threshold of 5% support nationwide.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 818 electors from July 14-27, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (up 1%) didn’t name a party.

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Comments and questions

Expected something like this!!
Still don't like it!

How the hell can anyone vote NZ First when Winston won't state his position? Obviously the more baubles he can gain the better, and Labour will outbid National - simply because they have so few capable MPs. That means Cunliffe for PM ! God forbid.

agree with all - this is the country of the disaffected - and a vote for short-term money-in-the-pocket is the horizon..

The KDC factor together with what hugesse candies Labour will offer SouthAuckland is the scary factor..

Wooahhh.. I preferred Rodney Hide before the diet..

I predict a win for the Left at this election. The problem for National is that it has insufficient support partners to form a government with. I'm also predicting though that if Labour does build a coalition and forms the next government under Cunliffe it will be one of the most unstable and hated governments in New Zealand's post world war II history and it won't last out it's full term.

This is great news, the imminent prospect of the 5 headed hydra in a position to govern this country and plunge it either into instability or into complete impotence, has to get complacent National voters out on polling day and ensure that it doesn't happen.

This is scary, but in some ways a blessing in disguise for National.

Hopefully, this will shake any complacency from National Party supporters and motivate them to get out and vote in order to avoid the absolute unthinkable.. Comrade Russell on the Treasury benches.

That being said, I think all these poll \ coalition predictions overlook a couple of key thinks;

1. Can anyone seriously believe that Winston will play second fiddle to the Greens in some hydra coalition. They will demand this - on the basis their party vote will be double NZ Firsts. Plus, despite the media protesting his lack of transparency on coalition deals, he has consistently said one thing - he will talk first to the party with the most votes. This is always going to be National.

2. The Maori Party. How are they polling in their key electorates? How many MPs are they likely to get in (if any)? Everyone writes them off as gone burger, but does evidence support this?

3. The more Cunliffe bags the transparent electorate deals for United Future and Act, the more he risks looking like an absolute hypocrite if Labour does an open deal for Hone in Te Tau Tokerau. That, and the fact it’s hard to imagine Kelvin Davis rolling over and playing fetch, mean that Hones re-election is far from guaranteed. The whole internet mana malarkey may yet wind up a waste of time and money.

Or... these guys are called Rogue Morgan for a reason.

There's probably also a reason why they don't belong to the industry body also... Is it to save membership fees? Or the freedom and ability to "create" polls outside of usual metrics criteria?

it's just so completely convenient for the political Left this poll comes out in the last possible minute... AND it has such a huge uplift for the left...

This inspires a mental image of Roy Morgan attempting to spend months and month's trying to resuscitate and re-inflate the rotting carcass of a long-since dead ...and well flogged horse...

The Morgan poll always has a lot of noisy variability. Take this with several grains of salt until other polls are in.

The Roy Morgan polls always favour lab/Greens and are out of line with all the other polls. They poll in strong Lab/Green territory. Don't worry Nats still on travk to govern alone if they want to but will take in allies for the long term.

[Hold for Chris to approve]
If you very carefully consider where Dotcom's risk lies in this election, and how he can use his money to mitigate this risk, you start looking very closely at Hone Harawira's electorate. Specifically, at Kelvin Davis and whether he can in any way be 'persuaded' by Internet/Mana to take one for the team.

As Hooton states in the NBR this morning, its unlikely Kelvin Davis would do this on Cunliffe's urging, given his low list placing and the resultant risk of him being out of work for the next 3 years. In my mind this only leaves Kim Dotcom's dollars to do the talking. Would he jump ship to some sort of token role within one of Dotcom's entities? (this is not an indictment on Kelvin David by the way, its more of an indictment on KDC...)

Desperate people do desperate acts.

A cornered rat is never more cunning and dangerous than when wounded - knowing their freedom/life relies on their ability to fight - so fight they will do.

All those millions wont be of any use once in the slammer - so spend it now will be his approach... and just look at the piglets looking for a teat to latch onto.

The squealing once the teat is removed will be long and loud...

I wonder why, other than Radio NZ, the Roy Morgan poll has had zilch coverage in NZ Herald and TVNZ?.
Also, why is a Labour potential coalition dubbed a hydra, bu a National coalition is somehow OK.
Watch this space, the polls will get a lot closer yet!

The scariest thing for me is another three years of national. I believe it is still the most likely outcome but I'm at least feeling now that there is hope. I get rather cynical about any party claiming credit for economic success etc...all is a result of management in years gone by from left and right governments but what I can't forgive is John Key's cynical disregard for the principles of democracy. We did vote to change MMP to get rid of the coat-tailing clause but he refuses to accept that result and ignore the Royal Commission that recommended it. He will sign the TPPC and therefore weaken our sovereignty....I can go on. If you don't know what the TPPC is (Trans Pacific Partnership) that's because he doesn't think its important and has proven very adept at keeping things out of the limelight that would hurt him. It was also his government that dared to consider mining in National Parks (forgetting that the first park Tongariro was a gift to the nation from Ngati Tuwharetoa and that Aoraki/Mt Cook was also gifted to the nation from Kai Tahu after it was received by them from the Treaty Settlement in 1995...gifted and therefore sacrosanct)
Our national economic success is not threatened by any change of government but our way of life and sovereignty is threatened without one.
I have voted for every party in the past but in my opinion this PM is more scary than Muldoon (and that's saying something) so this time it's either red or green for me.
Personally I'd have preferred David Shearer but sadly he's not on offer.