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Labour-Greens move ahead of National as scandal engulfs govt

The latest Roy Morgan poll shows a big fall in support for National (42.5%, down 6 percentage points) now well behind a potential Labour/Greens alliance (45.5%, up 5.5%).

Support for John Key’s coalition partners is little changed with the Maori Party 1% (unchanged), ACT NZ (0.5%, unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%).

Support has improved considerably for the opposition with the Labour Party up 2.5% to 31%, the Greens up 3% to 14.5%, New Zealand First 6% (up 0.5%), Mana Party 1% (unchanged). Support for the Internet Party is now at a record high 1.5% (up 0.5%), seemingly at the expense of the Conservative Party of NZ 0.5% (down 1.5%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the potential Labour/Greens alliance would be elected.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 135.5pts (down 7.5pts) with 62% (down 3%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 26.5% (up 4.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Pollster Gary Morgan says, “Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a large drop in support for National (42.5%, down 6%) after the scandals plaguing National claimed their first victim. Minister for Building & Construction, Customs and Statistics, Maurice Williamson, resigned his Ministerial posts last week after it was revealed Williamson contacted a top ranking police officer following the arrest of businessman Donghua Liu on domestic violence charges.

“Although Williamson has denied it, the clear inference drawn is that Mr Williamson was attempting to influence the police investigation of the matter to produce a favourable outcome for Liu. Williamson had allegedly told the police officer Liu was ‘investing a lot of money in New Zealand’. Parliament has this week extensively debated the furore surrounding Williamson’s decision to resign.

“In addition to Mr Williamson’s resignation, Justice Minister Judith Collins is taking ‘four or five days’ off work to rest and recuperate as questions continue to surround Collins regarding a dinner she attended with Oravida executives in Shanghai. Her husband, David Wong-Tung, is himself an Oravida director. Labour spokesperson for Internal Affairs, Trevor Mallrd, has used Parliamentary privilege to accuse Collins of making up to $500,000 by incorporating Oravida into her trip to China last year.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 847 electors from April 21 – May 4, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 6% (up 1%) didn’t name a party.

If Mr Morgan's scandal theory is correct, there could be worse to come for the government. His company's poll was mostly wrapped up by the time of Maurice Williamson's resignation, and missed the latest Oravida developments (Maurice Williamson resigned on May 1; the PM said Judith Collins would take a "refresher" break on May 6).

The govenment will be hoping the May 15 Budget — which is expected to show a return to surplus — will act as a circuit-breaker.

Comments and questions
55

I'm Voting Labour and so is my Wife, Too much under the table with National Every time they get in there always a problem

And everytime Labour gets in, they aggressively expand state control, social welfare dependency, red tape bureaucratic growth and leave the country poorer for their experiments.

and justice for all..................that is the very matter we dont get under the Tories........justice for all

They say immigrants are not the reason for such high house prices........I say what bollocks..........we are not all naive

Don....and everytime we get a Labour govt, we get social engineering along with the state control. Weak "justice" continue to cater for the namby pamby who care more the convicted than the victims. Poorer state indeed. Poorer in welfare and poorer in economy.

Don, you got that wrong....National keeps pretending the Chinese aren't responsible for massive Auckland house price rises.....

The Chinese are not always foreigners as you imagined. This is a country made by migrants. The Chinese has had a history contributing to this country, and has come here legitimately as lawful immigrants. Why can't they buy houses in this country? Why haven't I heard people complaining about the Autralians, the Americans, the Britons etc buying up the country? I have had enough of this discrimnation espoused by so called left wingers who are supposed to be advocating for justice and equality. You are real hypocracies. I am glad we have a National Party that does not behave like you lot!

You've got that exactly backwards. Try reading the news instead of making it up.

Whats the difference if he makes up the news? thats what the "news" does half the time anyway

"In other news, the State Services Commission has reported the number of Wellington-based bureaucrats increased by more than 900 over the last year to reach 18,493 – the most since 2000."

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/joyce-doing-numbers-bd-155670

Oh!! And the "arrangement" Labour has with Unions buying the right to choose the leader doesn't bother you? Whatever! This poll should at least dampen investors enthusiasm for our currency and exporters should be happy with that!!!

Good luck with the Greens!!!

You may want to look at Cunliffs record on Phillip Field - before endorsing him to lead the country.

Oh yes, and what short memories the Labour supporters have with all the scandals and lies from Labour. Including of course their leader's "false" CV!

Too much self interest in housing etc convinces me to not vote National this time

Rogue poll.

They aren't known as Rogue Morgan for no reason.

His polls are up and down like a w****'s drawers...anyone who believes Roy Morgan polls are accurate and that Kiwi voters flip flop on their support every two weeks is retarded.

Roy Morgan isn't even a member of the Research Association of NZ nor do they subscribe to the NZ political polling code. http://www.mrsnz.org.nz/webfiles/MarketResearchSocietyNZ/files/Research_Association_NZ_Media_Release_-_Political_polling_code_-_Mar_2014.pdf

In the UK non-members aren't included in poll of poll averages and give the extreme volatility of Roy Morgan polls I don;t believe they should be taken credibly here either.

I agree you need more than one poll to confirm a poll.

On the broader issue of each polling company's accuracy, Gavin White of UMR did write a post looking at each major firm's final published poll, vs the election day result.

He found:

National:
Actual 2011 election result: 47.3%
UMR: 48.6%
One News Colmar Brunton: 50.0%
Herald Digipoll: 50.9%
Roy Morgan: 49.5%
TV3 / Reid Research: 50.8%
Fairfax / Research International: 54.0%

Labour:
Actual result: 27.5%
UMR: 28.2%
One News Colmar Brunton: 28.0%
Herald Digipoll: 28.0%
Roy Morgan: 23.5%
TV3 / Reid Research: 26.0%
Fairfax / Research International: 26.0%

Greens:
Actual result: 11.1%
UMR: 12.4%
One News Colmar Brunton: 10.0%
Herald Digipoll: 11.8%
Roy Morgan: 14.5%
TV3 / Reid Research: 13.4%
Fairfax / Research International: 12.0%

NZ First (the only other party to pass or come close to the 5% MMP threshold:
Actual result: 6.6%
UMR: 6.0%
One News Colmar Brunton: 4.2%
Herald Digipoll: 5.2%
Roy Morgan: 6.5%
TV3 / Reid Research: 3.1%
Fairfax / Research International: 4.0%

See Gavin's full post here.

Dont suppose it could be anything else contributing to the volatility? Like the masters recent indiscretions?

Goodness,

Someone brought up the Unions.

I thought that worry went away years ago.

They hardly rate in N Z anymore.

Why our incomes have taken a hit and may well be why our debt burden has blossomed.

Time for a powerful Presidentail system! Then straight vote, Cunliffe or Key!

If by some incredible chance labour/green was in power NZ would pay a very high price.
I shudder at the possibility.

Desperation - next thing it will be a dictatorship and only one person to vote for - Key !!!

Mmmmm...oleaginous swivel-eyed Fabian Cunliffe with an identity-politics stranglehold on all economic/cultural/educational channels...or JK who has not once categorised any group of Kiwis for being evil for thinking differently to himself...you've got your definition of what constitutes a dictator wide off the mark Doctor.

"JK who has not once categorised any group of Kiwis for being evil for thinking differently to himself"

You must have forgotten about that time he called the opposition 'the devil-beast'.

Calm down dear!

This poll, like every other political, simply confirms that being a human of a certain age is no sound criterion for determining eligibility to cast a vote. This is a fundamental flaw with democracy and the 'one person, one vote' hypothesis. A far better model would be one similar to that of shareholder's rights to vote, based on taxes paid, but perhaps some other component that accounts for other societal values (but always remembering that it is the persons that pays that should have the say, for anything else is theft). This would inject some intelligence into the system, and encourage those who wanted a greater voice to knuckle down and make something of their lives.

Are you a real person or some kind of cartoon villain?

I'm a real person with the ability to think critically, Henry. I'm also wondering how your comment does anything but add to the veracity of what I have to say.

Great idea!

"It is the persons that pays (sic) that should have the say" ...

Sounds like you would fit in very well with the way National operates.

Thank you. I'm pleased to see that you appear to both have spotted the typo (persons) and also appear to agree with my statement since, like Henry, you don't have any valid suggestions as to why this would not improve the outcomes of New Zealand's political system.

The idea of voting power based on amount of taxes paid is worth exploring given the failure of "democracy" particularly under MMP.
However, any such study is unlikely to see the light of day as it would be like asking turkeys to vote for an early christmas!
paleo martin

Thanks Paleo. The proposed system is not dependent entirely on taxes since it is attaches a real value to any contribution. There is, as far as I know, for example, nothing stopping a citizen from gifting funds to IR or any other public organisation. The Morgans have been quoted (here on NBR I recall) saying that it's 'unfair' that they are not required to pay more tax. If it is the case that any taxpayer can pay more tax (and IR does not refund on over-payments unless the taxpayer requests it), then comments such as those made by the Morgans are ill-informed at best.

I think a vote weighted by you IQ score would be better than how much tax you pay. After all many rich folk are clever enough to pay very little tax in relation to what they really earn and we would want to disadvantage them, would we.

A political system draws a distinction between the voter and those who are voted in. The ideal is to have intelligent people both voting and being voted in. The ideal situation, particularly for a small and export dependent nation like New Zealand, would be for those contributing (based on economic input) to vote in proportion to their contribution. Those being voted for would operate as a Board, running New Zealand for the benefit of the voting contributors. There is no valid reason for non-contributors to have a say in the make-up of the Board. This is currently the case in New Zealand with those incarcerated ineligible to vote, so this is not new. Under this system there is also no reason that elections would be every three years, and no reason that the entire Board be changed at once. Anyone with an understanding of the roles of Directors and CEOs will understand how and why this system is superior to democracy.

As Benjamin Disraeli is purported to have said, ‘Lies damned lies & statistics’. The time to worry about the polls is a week out from the election. The will be up and down until then.

JK has been saying for a long time now this election will be tight because of MMP. While it's still very early days and I don't really care about that polls are trending this early in the game, however, Labour/Greens possibility is very real, and a very scary one at that. Just wait for the election bribes to come out from both sides.

Considering all the money powers are right wing and we are still in the Gfc, policies aside it might pay we go left wing for the sake of balancing things out and not have a trader share broker agent smith running the country (pillaging it)

Rule of thumb:
People first, profit second in a recession - left wing.
Profit first people second in a boom time - right wing gets vote.

(And from this you can see we should have had nats earlier millenium and labour now (recession wise). The opposite has happened these last 15y hence we have sold everything foreign investors including the kitchen sink, we are turning the country into a giant dairy boob to feed the world monoculture, we have the emergence of the working poor and record high youth suicide, domestic violence and child abuse, not to mention an unsustainable health and super system collapsing under the weight of the aging population.

The actual evidence pretty much all points the other way Prince William - violent offending is down, more ops being done in the health sector, households less indebted, etc, etc but don't let the facts get in the way of your incredible prejudices! Sure, not all is rosy but things certainly aren't worse than when Labour was booted out!

And not sure NZ First would prop up a Labour/Greens alliance!

People are realising that National is looking after their own self interests and the very wealthy to the detriment of the majority.
They have turned a blind eye to the severe housing crisis in Auckland as most politicians have property investments and have cozied up to the wealthy Chinese business people.

I will not be voting for them again!!

This nit picking scandal mongers on the other side of the room should try and figure out how they will be able to make life so golden for all the poor people instead of filling the House with salacious comments that do nothing constructive for those watching the play, John Key is a great leader and we should all be pleased we have him.

Go Conservatives!

Be careful what you wish for, as it looks like they could be on their way :(

I am confused. How can the majority of intelligent commenters on this site have such an abhorrence of socialism whilst simultaneously supporting a party that has NZ cosying up to the largest and most powerful authoritarian communist state in history? Explain to my poor dumb brain...

Simple, China makes just about every piece of hardware consumers need and they buy a lot of stuff we produce. Why not make the best of the situation? What would you have us do?

Blind eye. Let me explain.

Socialism doen,t work. There isn,t a country on earth that has been built from socialism. Capitalism isnt perfect but you will never have prosperity without competitive free markets and free enterprise.

NZ already has more people on transfer payments than it has people providing the taxes to allow it to happen. Taxes only come from individuals providing goods and services that people actually want, under open competition of course.

NZ is also unique in that it has only a small percentage of the population actually bringing home the bacon and even a smaller percentage paying most of the tax.

Take the , key off your keyboard and turn it round; then that , might be '.

Very regretfully,Key and co have severely damaged the mid-right brand with their lack of honesty and "memory fades"
Anyone who had the misfortune to watch Key's "smart-alec" performance in parliament yesterday would be left in no doubt as to the true nature of the person we currently have in the prime minister's role; it was shameful to watch.
And unfortunately that dismissive attitude sets the tone for his followers.
We deserve better!
The speaker also displayed his clear bias,whereas he could have,as he is supposed to do,kept things on course by being more independent and keeping the sneering to a minimum;but unfortunately that was beyond him,either unintentionally or by design.
Frankly, the only person who displayed the proper respect for our parliament was Winston Peters
Our prime minister would do well to take behaviour lessons from him.
The polls are now starting to reflect the true nature of our government.
Whether Key and co can hold things together through to election day will be interesting to see;personally I doubt it.
paleo martin

Respect for Parliament? Winston Peters? Hahahahahaha

Mr Winston 'NO' Peters and respect for parliament?

Remember Owen Glenn affair and Peters lying to Parliament?

You have just collapsed all your comments into self-delusion on a grand scale!

National have screwed us by voting Yea on all of Labour (Louisa Wall's) social pollicy and getting in bed with China. CC screwed his chances by being a mumma's boy. There isn't a moral conservative option left to vote for with a real chance. Really feelilng like the only option is NZ First, not because they're good, just because they'll get in the way of everyone else who is worse.

Oh dear, what happened to an informed electorate discussion important issues? All these political shenanigans from whatever shade of beige just detract from real issues - rebalancing the economy to something that reflects our latent ability, making sure that all New Zealanders have an equal opportunity to share in wealth creation, making sure out kids are equipped for the next fifty years and making sure that there is an adequate safety net for those that are less fortunate and that society (remember that word) needs to help out.

The rest is just posturing and prevaricating in the hope of hanging on to/ gaining power - it should be a privilege to serve and when you have nothing more useful to contribute stand aside for those that have - this sentiment would seem to apply to most of the useless inhabitants of the beehive these days.

Safety nets, grace and compassion have been abused to create a victim culture.

Having read up on the movie Idiocracry I want to see a mean, tough love government that withholds health care for flawed lifestyle choices. If you drive fast and crash, you pay for your own recovery. If you smoke you only get health care for non-smoking related issues. If you're born with diabetes you get help but not if you develop diabetes through bad eating choices.

If the less intelligent breed in higher numbers than the more intelligent then over time the majority gets dumber and dumber. It's a major flaw with democracy. Just ban voting rights from people with an IQ under 115.

The silver lining in the dark cloud of a possible Labour/Green/Winston/Mana government is that a new generation of voters will learn the lesson (the hard way) that pre-1984 style tax and spend/excessively statist policies are disastrous. Unions hanker for a return to labour laws that protect slackers, collective bargaining that will bankrupt employers etc. Left-leaning voters have not learned that the high unemployment rates in Southern Europe are because of labour laws that make it impossible to fire workers to keep businesses afloat.

And Labour/Green/Winston compete with each other to bash Chinese despite the fact that New Zealand's current prosperity is largely due to our links with China, including Chinese fee-paying students and tourists.

As they say a week in politics is a long time.

Notably cunliffe did not have to contribute much...national own goals. If Collins continues to gift labour votes then she will have to go.

Don't count any chickens yet though....given their track record, after several clear weeks labour must be due to put there foot in their own mouth soon.