Member log in

Labour's tax plan would see debt balloon - Joyce

National has attacked Labour’s tax plan, saying it would leave a huge hole in taxpayers’ finances over the next 15 years and add $18.5 billion dollars to net Crown debt.

Labour recently announced its plan to introduce a capital gains tax and hike the top tax rate to 39% while taking GST off fresh fruit and vegetables and making the first $5000 of income tax-free. 

“A financial analysis of Phil Goff’s tax and borrow ideas shows they are hugely hopeful and would in fact require taxpayers to borrow billions of dollars more," Associate Finance Minister Steven Joyce said.

Mr Joyce said putting the numbers through the Treasury’s models, which are used to produce the economic and fiscal projections of every budget, showed Labour’s tax increases would raise about $21 billion of extra revenue out to 2024/25.

“Over the same period, they would forgo about $28.5 billion in revenue.

“That leaves a $7.5 billion revenue hole, on top of another $7.5 billion in extra interest costs Labour would have to pay on their higher debt. In addition, Labour would need to borrow billions more if it doesn’t proceed with the mixed ownership model for SOEs, pushing total net Crown debt $18.5 billion higher by 2024/25.

“And that is all on the assumption they could start a capital gains tax in 2013 and raise billions of dollars despite all their complicated exemptions and loopholes.”

Mr Joyce said Labour had underestimated the costs and overestimated the revenue from almost all of its promises and had no basis for adding in $300 million a year from tax avoidance measures.

He said Labour failed to include extra interest costs on its higher borrowing and hadn't factored in the need to borrow billions of dollars more to maintain the government’s level of capital investment, in the absence of proceeds from the partial sell-down of State Owned Enterprises.

"To make matters worse, they have hidden in their numbers an Emissions Trading Scheme based on a $50 per tonne price for carbon across the entire scheme. That would mean Kiwi households would have to fork out four times as much for the ETS as they do currently under the National-led government’s more balanced scheme," Mr Joyce said.

“And, of course, Labour has already admitted it will spend more. It is yet to announce its spending promises but has railed against every decision this government has made to contain spending. Any new spending would add even more to Labour’s debt each year,” Mr Joyce said.

Signup to free NBR email alerts here

Comments and questions
15

Prime Minister John Key is more rattled by Labour's capital gains tax proposals than he lets on.

That's obvious by the way he has quickly drafted Steven Joyce - who is not even yet on his front bench - into the front-line to run interference for the Government on Labour's potential election game-changer.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10739555

And this is why only 27% suppport labour in the latest poll despite nearly 50% supporting a CGT.

They dont trust Labour to implement it.

Not sure about figures adn whose workings are more correct - but I know from past expereinces with a Labour government that they are anything but honest or transparent - so in terms of credibility - National's figures based on treasurey's models would seem more correct than Labour's.

Typical of Labour though - bleat about government spending on one side of their face, then out the other say the opposite whilst preparing to spend even more than National.

Hypicrital parasites that couldn't run a hot bath - let alone a government or country!

In response to John S | Wednesday, July 20, 2011 - 11:11am

Actually it's because John Key is overseas at the moment.

A marginal tax rate of 39%, GST @ 15% and a CGT. The first $5,000 of income tax-free and no GST on Fruit and Vegetables...

Trust tax rate of 33%, PIE at 28%, Company tax rate at 28% with significant step to 39%.... despite what Cunliffe might huff and puff about anti-avoidance, it's all creating the toxic environment to move income around under various structures to reduce taxes.

There's a net fiscal drag from compliance costs to start with, let alone sticking the 10% of households who actually pay 71% of the net income tax with more burden.

Even if the fruit of all the tax effective structuring ends up being for nought, we're paving the road to endless IRD litigation (such as Penny and Hooper), uncertainty and incentives to inefficient investment (preferring tax efficient to productivity efficient ones).

Really dumb when at the moment we are moving closer to having an income tax rate, trust tax, company tax and PIE rate that are relatively close.

This is maddening given how close we are to aligned tax rates and again motivating me and others to move my tax residency (plus my income and spending) over the ditch yet again.

Every time, the NZ IRD wants to stick me for more than half my income then I will follow the philosophy of Sir Michael Caine and find somewhere else to be tax resident where they don't want to have a greater share than what I get to spend for my hands' toil and the sweat on my brow.

Why is Bill English completely silent on this issue. Is it because National have muzzled the idiot?

Why does a salaried individual pay more tax than a property speculator for the same annual income?

Clearly vested interested are at play in opposing CGT.

What the average guy isn't being told is.... come on work it out. NO rich prick as M Cullen so eloquently put it ... will take a 15% loss lying down of course the will be a cost to try recover it .... trhey also have the resource and contacts to reduce it!! the the poor sucker on the street will have this passed onto them.... best wishes Labour and the smart voters who 'believe' you. there kids will not beable to afford home in 10 years time look a sydney. Tax does not come from nowhere - cost of production goes up ... cost of goods go up taadaa. So instead of looking to raise more taxes ... how about finding ways to cut spending!!

In response to Anonymous | Wednesday, July 20, 2011 - 1:39pm

Because the typical salaried individual gets paid from a job created by someone else's capital (often including other taxpayers in the case of government employment), without risking any of their own capital. Not every investor in property is a speculator, and nor is all investment in property speculation. The biggest issue with Labour's new tax policy is not CGT. It is the rort on top taxpayers (achievers) in order to increase the subsidies for non-achievers, and the complexity of removing GST on fresh fruit and vegetables (pure window dressing), with no long term impact on the nation's health.

Wonder if Goff will tell us about the cover up on Darren Hughes as well as Annette King,tell us the true story about the phantom of Haitaitai.The unusual happenings on that fateful March night in the house of Annette King,and how he tried to keep the allegations quiet.

How is 15% on profit so bad?

I dont this will stifle enterprise. A top personal tax rate of 39% might. Those workers are of course welcome to create their own enterprise, which some of them do by hiring themselves out as companies anyway.

I myself have a mixed income, and will have to pay 15% for my enterprise. I am not a speculator, however do think this CGT will not only level the playing field, get rid of distortions regarding the investment markets and most importantly discourage speculation and fraud for that matter (which adds no value, just cost).

I have come to a point I dont listen to politicians. They rarely tell the truth, and are mostly self serving. So take little from Joyces comments with a grain of salt. Treasury rarely get it right, and are mostly US educated; which says it all. The US advocates freemarket policies, yet rarely practise it.

NZ has a deficit of over $10 billion income per annum from overseas investors, through controlling stakes in much of the monopoly charging companies; ie. banks, insurance, food, infrastructure companies. This rarely gets discussed, and putting this in perspective Fonterra earnings are only $10 billion a year, not profit. You'll find most of their earnings leave this country in interest payments.

This is NZ's biggest problem, because you can not extract this level of profit annually without flow on consequences; i.e. Poorer education, health care, justice etc.

Selling more state assets; especially at the wrong time of an economic cycle, will only see more of a deterioration in our public services. Shares are traded internationally, and will eventually come into the hands of overseas investors (along with the dividends), which have more money than us locals. Its a given.

Our Governments have shown themselves to be poor at regulating monopoly practises, so lets not provide large companies the opportunity in the first place.

Why go down that road when a CGT will provide the equivalent or more in revenue over the medium term. While I am in a position to personally fund private services, alot of my fellow men arent. And what will be their problem will become my problem.

People are so short sighted these dates. They should be thinking of the long term consequences of the current government policies, rather than the short term economics those behind the US government are promoting; largely for the benefit of a few.

While I'm not traditionally a Labour voter, I see not option this time round (remembering its only a 3 year term), given the very evident consequences of the previous state asset sales that the present government is driving.

Acknowledging a vast number of people can always leave the country when the cost of living becomes too high, you'll never replace the quality of life this country has to offer. This is what I'll trying to protect for my children & future grand children.

Dont kid yourself that Aussie is better. They have higher retirement age, polution, taxes and real estate prices than us, and/or a much longer commute and less water. They only better thing they have is compulsory super, and this could be implimented by any government if they had the balls.

In response to Richard S | Wednesday, July 20, 2011 - 7:53pm

Forget the politicians but, If you do not understand how capital gains will stifle (with the current level of consumption stifilism....)......any chance you can look at the full dimensions of what you say?

New Zealand's biggest problem is UN based stiflism which, if you do some research, the prompter behind the CGT. Its not a matter of National or Labour.

In response to John S | Wednesday, July 20, 2011 - 11:11am

Shaking in his boots buddy i can see JK now crying in his coffee... because the voting public all 27% of them love it ... you can smell Labours desperation

Who knows if a CGT is a good idea? But I do know that as long as Goff is leader, we won't be having any decisions made by a Labour government. Keep him on I say!

Can someone nail the Liebour brigands and get them to explain the proposed back door inheritance tax on properties left to the families of the deceased.Fact seems if inherited and then on sold the damp squib proposed Liebour CGT WILL KICK IN,even if the property was bought 50 YEARS AGO.

Post new comment or question

Login to use your NBR member name
Full HTML is not supported but you can use the following tags in your comments:
Link: <url>link</url>
Quote: <quote>text</quote>