As March 20 looms, Moon Man backs away from quake prediction
The Skeptics Society is all set for lunch in Christchurch on Sunday with ACC Minister Nick Smith, media spokeswoman Vicki Hyde said today, and has absolutely no worries about Ken Ring’s earthquake prediction on the same day.
Ms Hyde told NBR that while it is likely Christchurch will suffer an aftershock on Sunday, the day Mr Ring predicted an earthquake at noon, there is no scientific credibility to his predictions.
“If Ken’s predictions are true to form, we shouldn’t even get an aftershock at all.”
The reality is, Ms Hyde said, “we can’t predict earthquakes, bugger it!”
Ms Hyde, a resident of Christchurch for 20 years, said the Skeptics Society thinks it is important to have an understanding of the world not based on bias, assumptions or wishful thinking.
“In order for his quake prediction to be accurate, we’d have to have an 8.2, at noon, in Canterbury or Marlborough. If it’s not there, it’s not there. If it comes, we’d be really interested, we’ll want to hear what his next prediction is and test that too.”
However Ms Hyde said Mr Ring had now gone back on his original prediction and had become more vague. She said Mr Ring was fear mongering and that people should not have to put up with it. The Moon Man is now talking in terms of a 4 to 6 magnitude quake - a commonplace occurance in the aftershocked cit rather than "one for the history books" as Mr Ring originally put it (see below).
Unethical
“I really think he should consider very carefully the ethics of what he’s doing, he is frightening people and frankly we’re frightened enough," Ms Hyde said.
"We shouldn’t have to be frightened by somebody who has taken a belief form and tried to make it sound as if it’s really factual.”
Some truth
Another person who feels she could do without Mr Ring’s predictions was Janice Thornton, leasee of Sign of the Kiwi, where the Skeptics plan to have lunch on Sunday.
She said she had noticed a huge drop in customers since the earthquake and felt that a bit of normality was needed in the lives of Christchurch people.
Ms Thornton told NBR it was business as usual for the Sign of the Kiwi and that while there may be some truth in Mr Ring’s theories, she was very much an optimist.
“If we lived our lives thinking like that, we’d never do anything.”
Ring: "increased chance of earthquake activity"
Mr Ring said this morning in an email to NBR that his opinion had always been that there would be an increased chance of earthquake activity around the full moon/closest perigee period which spans 19-25 March.
In his original post on the topic, the forecaster said:
Next year, the morning of 20 March 2011 sees the South island again in a big earthquake risk for all the same reasons. This date is the closest fly-past the moon does in all of 2011. The node arrives on the 20th at 9.44am. As that date coincides with lunar equinox this will probably be an east/west faultline event this time, and therefore should be more confined to a narrower band of latitude. The only east/west fault lines in NZ are in Marlborough and N Canterbury. All factors should come together for a moon-shot straight through the centre of the earth and targeting NZ. The time will be just before noon. It could be another for the history books.
On Australian television, Mr Ring told people to avoid New Zealand between the March 19 and March 21.
Today Mr Ring told NBR, “If there is no damaging event in New Zealand then no one will be more pleased and relieved than me.”
He said he was unable to comment further as media had made it impossible for him to have a public opinion on the topic as it had been labelled as “scaremongering”.
The UCLA study
Earlier, on March 15, Mr Ring told NBR that universities around the were working on the lunar link to earthquakes and promised to send a list of studies on the subject (he did foward links to a series of magazine articles; see it here).
One link was to a National Geographic article, Are Earthquakes Encouraged by High Tides?, that describes a 2004 paper by University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) graduate student Elizabeth Cochran.
Howerver, Ms Cochran told Kiwi FM breakfast host Glenn Williams that while the UCLA research drew a link between tides and earthquakes under certain conditions, it could not be used to predict earthquakes (see video clip below).
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Comments and questions79
I'd be careful about linking Ken Ring's "original" posts as he often updates them without giving any indication it's changed.
In isolation ie specific dates, Ken will laways fail under scrutiny. Over the course of a year wher he maes 250 predictions (plus or minus 1-3 days) he is bound to appear right. The old saying that the sun shines ona dogs ar*e at least once in his life is correct. Although you could argue that he was right when he said Penny Bright would be dead last in the Botany bi-election.....
In isolation ie specific dates, Ken will laways fail under scrutiny. Over the course of a year wher he maes 250 predictions (plus or minus 1-3 days) he is bound to appear right. The old saying that the sun shines ona dogs ar*e at least once in his life is correct. Although you could argue that he was right when he said Penny Bright would be dead last in the Botany bi-election.....
What saddens me is that we seem to be a nation of kooks who take all sorts of stuff and nonsense like this seriously. When will we grow up and learn to use logic and intellect rather than rely on charlatans and silly faith based rituals for guidance?
I'm a bit tired of media trying to give both sides to stories. If one side is clearly wrong, and is in fact scaremongering, why doesn't the media just report that? Can't they do the journalism to determine that one side of an issue may be pure nonsense? I thought that what they were supposed to do.
ie. "Ken Ring is a fraud who scares people." -- NBR
I'm just tied of this whole business - we have a nuclear disaster happening and political uphevals and yet we fixate on this snake oil salesman...
I've leaned never to trust anyone, who sports a beard, a mo' etc.
And I never trust people who can't spell Duckman
The Herald astrology site says otherwise should I trust them as well or buy a rabbit’s foot and or prey?
@ramboky. Correct on Moon man. Irony is though - resembles the same behaviour as dick Smith's consistency on the Global Warming/ETS scam eh
Couldn't care less one way or another re Ken Ring....but let us not forget "D'ick Smith and his attempt to resurrect some credibility for his own situation re the ETScam...Not a Chance...Smith you are a *head and nothings going to change my opinion on that fact.
He's watered it down to "More likely to be a 4-6mag." within 500km of the Alpine Fault and more recently to "However, as we have said, it could be anywhere in NZ, or it may not even happen at all.", dropping any reference to magnitude or location, e.g. http://sciblogs.co.nz/code-for-life/2011/03/07/ken-rings-predictions-what-happens-on-march-20th-doesnt-matter/ Since then he's closed down comments on his Facebook page, and limited his new Predict Weather facebook page to those who register.
Nick Smith pushes Global Warming from C02, Ken Ring pushes Earthquakes from the moon... who's the bigger fool?
At least Ken Ring has not imposed a tax from his beliefs.
Here, Here!
'Course if he's right, we'll have to see if he floats and if he does, that's because he's made of wood. And what do we do if he's made of wood?
The whole thing is SO delightfully Pythonesque.
Dear old Uncle Alan Hubbard couldn't do anything wrong.
Plays down? What a load of rubbish. On 8 September I copied his prediction to my calendar to test his prediction: "the morning of 20 March 2011 sees the South island again in big earthquake risk for all the same reasons. The node arrives at 9.44am. It could be another for the history books" Ken Ring's story is the same as it was then, but I have since seen the news media misquote, misinform, and then assert he changed his story.
wait and see all you people the man is doing his best after all if you were told a earthquake possible by the powers that be imagine the panic bad enough as it is but i believe you moon man
wait and see all you people the man is doing his best after all if you were told a earthquake possible by the powers that be imagine the panic bad enough as it is but i believe you moon man
wait and see all you people the man is doing his best after all if you were told a earthquake possible by the powers that be imagine the panic bad enough as it is but i believe you moon man
3 times an idiot then.
Basil Wood,
The quotes I gave earlier are direct quotes from Ken Ring. As you can see he's offered several different versions over time, with a trend—if we can call it that—of weakening his "prediction" as this current fiasco grew. Regards "wait and see", it doesn't matter what happens on the day if his "predictions" are meaningless.
Where does he find these sort of earthquake predicitons?
He just pulls them out of Ken's Ring.
Ken Ring is full of shit
Take a look at http:// www.palmerston-north.info and tell me who is the biggest fool, Smith or Ring
Take a look at http:// www.palmerston-north.info and tell me who is the biggest fool, Smith or Ring
Hmmmm...IF nature decides to deliver-up on Ken Ring's predcations of a major tremor in or, around the Christchurch area on or, around March 20, chooks and bakers will be VERY busy.
Fascinating: Ken Ring seems to attract nutters - there's both the Alan Hubbard supporters and some crazy worried about a wind farm on Palmerston Norths water supply (!!??) in the above posts! I LOVE IT! How many other weird causes do his followers also believe in???
Ken - thanks for your help. As a widower with three young children who have all heard your crack pot predictions, and have cried to sleep tonight believeing the world is going to end - I really appreciate your predictions.
hi. just wondering if he predicted the japan earthquake or the one off fiji??? tried to google and couldn't find anything.. this is all just scare tactics... what ever is meant to happen will happen..
Bad moon
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/bad-moon-rising-2245362.html
Hes an idoit! No quallyfications what so ever.
watever happens we'l get through as we had in the past
take care
lets just send Ken to the moon by the next available rocket!
Wouldn't be surprised if there is a M5.5 in the next 24 hrs
It is a little disconcerting being asked by your youngest child ~ Mum.." am I going to get to grow-up ? Just 3 days before the Feburary event he came home from School saying he had been told in the playground that we ( linked to rural ChCh ) were going to get WIPED OUT by the BiG OnE. I am a reality chick...I don't lie to my children but it comes back to " what they hear at the dinner table"......even if it is the only scaremonger free 15 minutes that they have twice a day...it needs to be about ANYTHING BUT about natural disaster / s.
Don't buy his books unless you like fiction...
I guess we'll all know soon enough huh!!
everyones entitled to their own opinions. so many people have completely blown what this guy is saying out of the water. hes just making comments from some research hes done with alignments etc. if hes right, bam! earthquake in your face, now whos the stupid one. if he wrong, then theres no earthquake, noone has to die. dont need to be so hateful people. get over it
Ripley's believe it or not! Such a lot of hype for one old mans belief. Nick Smith and the media are the idiots who are scaremongering not Ken Ring. I should think that we are capable of making our own minds if we wish to believe Ken or not. Don't be fooled because the media are having a field day with this story. As for those mongrels having lunch on Sunday shame on you.
brilliantly said. if people don't like what he has to say then don't read it.. nothing ken ring has said is a prediction, it's more what statistics, facts and intense studies are showing that if it will happen it is more likely to be around that day then any others
It might happen, it might not. But as long as he keeps saying "there will be an earthquake", he'll eventually be right.
I fully support sending him to the moon :)
statistics? facts? intense studies?
Actually there are none of those things in Ring's "predictions".
I agree Smith is hardly helping to down play the scaremongering with such pork-chop antics.
It is not just one mans prediction by the way. You know what's crazy? Answer: A person who claims to know for sure something can't be true, yet hasn't bothered to research it. The sort of people that believed the earth was flat, or cannot tell the difference between a building that has failed i.e Haiti earthquake, (buildings fell over), and buildings that blew up i.e 9/11 (pulverised into billions of pieces). These people believe whatever they are spoonfed by the media and are incapable of independent thought. Ken Ring is offering his opinion. The last significant planetary alignment was 11 March and look what happened to Japan. It wasn't one of Mr. Rings predictions, it was someone else's based on the same theory. It is on youtube and was posted December 2010. Wake up Sheeple.
Are you guys just scared? I hope he is right. It will put a bullet through the head of status quo thinking. Ken Ring has come out with an alternative opinion, one which isn't to the liking of people because they realize that he isn't predicting something nice. For the most part his prediction should be reflected upon as a warning for the future. There will be more seismic activity. If he is wrong so be it, he is being honest in his own thoughts. There is no need to rubbish him. There clearly is a scientific proof that there will be larger tides tomorrow. So why wouldn't it effect the earth's plates? For all the theorists in the world nobody can predict anything. I think Ring's ideas simply challenge the status quo and thats what scares people, that maybe the education system which indoctrinates society isn't the only way of thinking in the world.
Whether he is right, or not right, it is certainly NOT RIGHT to frighten already completely traumatised people.....who will no doubt be anxiously expecting another quake anyway, after the repeat performance that we had........he has cost people a lot of money by frightening them so much they have left the area until after the predicted dates. As if they needed any more burden on their pockets. Wish all these soothsayers or whatever would keep their thoughts to themselves.
How much have got to contribute? Richman....
Note that there is a significant difference between those who determined the world to be round/the sun to be at the centre of the universe etc and Mr Ring. The aforementioned changes in thinking were the result of extensive scientific research and observation - and they were based on previously accepted scientific principals.
Further a quick review of NASA's website would note that no significant planetary alignment has occurred in the last decade nor will one occur in the next decade - youtube, as it turns out, is not the most reliable source.
How do we know that scientists haven't been incorrect all this time?
You don't need to have a qualification to be passionate enough to voice your 'opinion' about something, who said its a prediction. It might rain later, thats my opinion, not a prediction. There might be an earthquake later to.
Coming from someone who can't spell correctly?
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