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Milk prices at Fonterra auction head in all too familiar direction

Fonterra may need to give its crystal ball a polish, as dairy prices continue to spite predictions of a great turnaround.

In the latest online auction, prices for whole milk powder (WMP), averaged across all three contract periods, fell by 12.0% to $US1886MT.

Last month the price fell by a more ambiguous 4.1%, but with a second month of falling prices, the positive movement seen earlier this year is looking more like a blip on a consistently steep downward trend.

Fonterra’s assertion in April that firmer prices at the time indicated that supply and demand fundamentals were coming into balance is a view the dairy giant is unlikely to repeat in the near future.

Last month, chairman Henry van Heyden pointed out that prices are bouncing along the bottom, but the latest result suggests further hidden depths.

In March, there was a rise of 16.6%, followed by a 3.5% rise in April, but those gains have almost been wiped out by the losses in the following months.

The auction sell yet to be produced milk in three three-month blocks, and all three contract periods saw losses.

The August contract period fared the best, down 7.7%, but the September-November and December-February contract periods were down 12.4% and 14.2% respectively.

More by Robert Smith

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