MPI lifts forecasts for dairy, meat, forestry exports on Chinese demand

The Ministry for Primary Industries has raised its forecasts for exports of dairy products, meat and forestry, citing growing demand and limited supplies of milk, lower US and European beef production and high prices for logs.

The ministry raised its forecast for total primary sector exports in the year ending June 30 by 15.6 percent compared to its estimates last June to $36.5 billion and its 2015 forecast by about 8 percent to $35.7 billion.

The revisions are led by dairy products, which are seen generating $16.69 billion in the current year, up $2.7 billion, or 19.5 percent from its original forecasts last June. The forecast for meat, pelts and wool was lifted by $1.2 billion, or 22 percent, to $6.6 billion and forestry is revised up by $820 million, or 19 percent, to $5.1 billion.

"New Zealand exporters are able to direct product into emerging markets to meet rapidly growing demand," the ministry said in the report. "This is predominantly increased volume of exports to China."

At the same time, "supply constraints among our major export competitors (are) causing rising prices on international markets. This is largely due to US and EU diminished dairy and beef production."

More modest revisions include a $109 million, or 3.4 percent, increase in horticulture exports to about $3.3 billion for the year ending June 30 and a $52 million, or 3.4 percent gain to $1.58 billion for seafood.

(BusinessDesk)

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