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My 2014 predictions

Here’s my 20 political predictions for 2014:

  1. Colin Craig will be a Member of Parliament by the end of 2014
     
  2. The election will be held in October 2014
     
  3. Genesis Energy will be sold by May 2014
     
  4. There will be two new Ministers before the election
     
  5. At least one electorate Labour MP will be successfully challenged for their party’s nomination (or will withdraw before the vote)
     
  6. At least two more National MPs will announce they will retire before the election
     
  7. Brendan Horan will not be an MP by the end of 2014
     
  8. The 2014 Budget will project a surplus of between $100 million and $250 million for 2014/15
     
  9. NZ will not win the election for the UN Security Council
     
  10. At least two Green MPs will be ranked outside the top 15 on the Green list
     
  11. The Maori Party will have at least two MPs after the election
     
  12. Len Brown will go
     
  13. Hone Harawira will attend less than half the House sitting days in 2014
     
  14. National will campaign on tax cuts and Labour on tax increases
     
  15. Jamie Whyte will be elected the Leader of ACT and candidate for Epsom, but ACT will not make it back to Parliament
     
  16. Peter Dunne will be re-elected MP for Ohariu
     
  17. NZ First will have fewer MPs after the election, than they got in 2011
     
  18. A prominent journalist will stand as a candidate for the Kim Dotcom Party
     
  19. National will both gain and lose electorate seats at the election
     
  20. After the 2014 election, Parliament will be at least 38% female, up from 34%

Read also: Scoring my 2013 predictions

Political commentator David Farrar posts at Kiwiblog.

Comments and questions
7

hmmm some interesting statements, though point 20 is probably well overdue and while it stands to reason that NZ will experience a small economic boom as the 7 year global recession cycle begins to recover in an upward swing again, we also hope the corporates and NZX Boards follow suite in 2014 and offer more CEO and Board positions to the scores of very adequately qualified women in this country.

Happy NY ! Thanks for an uplifting blog.

Expat SA/Kiwi

No cigar for prediction 19!

No predictions on the outcome of the John Banks electoral fraud trial in 2014?

(Potentially could be quite a significant political event?)

Wasn't predicted in 2013 that John Banks would ever face trial for alleged electoral fraud?

Happy New Year!

Kind regards,

Penny Bright

Very good David.
Can I help with a few you have overlooked?
John Banks will be convicted.
Winston will not retire..
Peter Dunne will be superfluous to
political requirements
A National MP will be as embroiled in a scandal as Brown has been.
Palino,Minto or Brewer will not be Mayor
Cameron Slater will still not be seen by other than his oily fanbase as a journalist.
Fewer and fewer will believe polls.

Australia has changed Governments so if we look back at history of Auss and NZ governments you will find that they are never the same ,My prediction is that the Nats are gone here in 2014 the Dictatorship will be over....

The dictatorship ended in November 2008 - we now have fewer laws, less bureaucracy and lower taxes (as well as a booming economy). Have you been sleeping?

I predict the lag effect of asset sales will end Key's National lead Government.

A public backlash at the last asset in Genesis Energy being sold before the election which will cause near riots with a hero unfolding.

The election will be held in the first week of August.

Winston Peter's will discount runing with National beating Key to right him off.

Labour will follow a world tread and turn further Left in it's stance, which will be very popular with voters.