National up, down in latest polls - and one has an NZ First surge to 7%
"Without details of the "Don't Know" and "Won't Say" responses we don't actually know the true % support. If, for example, 20% were "won't say" then as I understand it a 40% support response is reported as 50%."Featured comment
National has taken a hit from the Oravida mini-scandal, or not - pick your poll.
A OneNews-Colmar Brunton poll released this evening has National down 4% to 47%.
A 3News-Reid Research survey, also out tonight, has National up 1.4% to 45.9%.
Both polls have Labour dipping.
And both have John Key steady in the preferred prime minister stakes while David Cunliffe dips below 10% in both.
NZ First doubles
The OneNews-Colmar Brunton poll has NZ First doubling its support to 7.0% - but still not in a kingmaker role. Based on the poll's numbers, National would be able to form a government with ACT, UnitedFuture and The Maori Party, if each of the coalition partners held their electorate seats.
3News-Reid Research has NZ First falling 0.8% to 4.9%.
Dotcom on the radar
3News-Reid Research has Mana up 0.8% to 1.1%, and Kim Dotcom's Internet Party debuting on 0.4% (neither party register in the OneNews Colmar Brunton poll).
But for Mana leader Hone Harawira, his party's nationwide number means little; he must starve off a strong Labour challenge to hold his seat of Te Tai Tokerau to ensure his political survival - and calculate how a hookup with Kim Dotcom will help or hinder his chances with Northland Maori voters.
If the Mana leader does hold his seat, and does ally with the Internet Party, then based on the 3News-Reid poll the second-placed person on a Mana-Internet Party shared list would also enter Parliament.
- National – 45.9 percent, up 1.4 percent
- Labour – 31.2 percent, down 2.3 percent
- Greens – 11.2 percent, down 1.2 percent
- NZ First – 4.9 percent, down 0.8 percent
- Conservative – 1.9 percent, down 0.2 percent
- Maori – 1.5 percent, up 0.3 percent
- Act – 1.1 percent, up 1.1 percent
- Mana – 1.1 percent, up 0.8 percent
- United Future – 0.1 percent, up 0.1 percent
- Internet Party – 0.4 percent, up 0.4 percent
Both polls surveyed 1000 eligible voters. See OneNews-Colmar Brunton result graphic top right.