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National up, down in latest polls - and one has an NZ First surge to 7%

National has taken a hit from the Oravida mini-scandal, or not - pick your poll.

A OneNews-Colmar Brunton poll released this evening has National down 4% to 47%.

A 3News-Reid Research survey, also out tonight, has National up 1.4% to 45.9%.

Both polls have Labour dipping.

And both have John Key steady in the preferred prime minister stakes while David Cunliffe dips below 10% in both.

NZ First doubles
The OneNews-Colmar Brunton poll has NZ First doubling its support to 7.0% - but still not in a kingmaker role. Based on the poll's numbers, National would be able to form a government with ACT, UnitedFuture and The Maori Party, if each of the coalition partners held their electorate seats.

3News-Reid Research has NZ First falling 0.8% to 4.9%.

Dotcom on the radar
3News-Reid Research has Mana up 0.8% to 1.1%, and Kim Dotcom's Internet Party debuting on 0.4% (neither party register in the OneNews Colmar Brunton poll).

But for Mana leader Hone Harawira, his party's nationwide number means little; he must starve off a strong Labour challenge to hold his seat of Te Tai Tokerau to ensure his political survival - and calculate how a hookup with Kim Dotcom will help or hinder his chances with Northland Maori voters.

If the Mana leader does hold his seat, and does ally with the Internet Party, then based on the 3News-Reid poll the second-placed person on a Mana-Internet Party shared list would also enter Parliament.


3News-Reid Research

  • National – 45.9 percent, up 1.4 percent
  • Labour – 31.2 percent, down 2.3 percent
  • Greens – 11.2 percent, down 1.2 percent
  • NZ First – 4.9 percent, down 0.8 percent
  • Conservative – 1.9 percent, down 0.2 percent
  • Maori – 1.5 percent, up 0.3 percent
  • Act – 1.1 percent, up 1.1 percent
  • Mana – 1.1 percent, up 0.8 percent
  • United Future – 0.1 percent, up 0.1 percent
  • Internet Party – 0.4 percent, up 0.4 percent

Both polls surveyed 1000 eligible voters. See OneNews-Colmar Brunton result graphic top right.

Comments and questions
4

Seems when the General Election rolls around,most NZ voters who value stability, and peace of mind the way, National has performed over six years ,they will vote for the status quo.Just imagine the alternatives,only a person who enjoys being mental machochists would vote for any other main party where even their leader is in complete meltdown.

The general consensus is that the rich are getting richer, and the poor are getting poorer. This is largely driven by a low wage, high cost structure for those at the bottom.

Having entered globalisation, and free trade agreements with China (and their slave labour), its unlikely you'll see much growth in wages.

New Zealands running costs are greater, due to a relative lack of population, limited competition with core requirements; ie. food and energy costs, along with the high costs of borrowing.

The government have been leveraging the cost of electricity up to meet their funding shortfall. This is due to not collecting enough taxes (from the big multinational companies that don't pay their dues) to fund NZ present social system, which for the most part is due to ballooning costs of health care and super.

People are living longer, and requiring way more healthcare. This is not mutually exclusive to NZ, and unfortunately western governments have addressed the issues of funding this. As we move more towards a user pays society, the answer applies obvious.

Meanwhile, governments reduce there sending at the youth level, forgetting they are the future. Youth unemployment at an all time high. The balance is all wrong.

We need a government that is prepared to make the hard calls, and reinvest more to the younger generation, rather than the older generation. An logical grandparent would/should support this.

I would also suggest a tax on gross turnover for companies that are more than 50% owned by overseas would be a good start also. While their businesses are happy to use NZ taxpayer funded infrastructure, at present a lot of these overseas companies are not prepared to pay for their fair share.

Lastly, I would suggest we need to change the voting system, to encourage more say from society of the future. What about online voting? And its not too late for this election either.

I have an ongoing problem with the way the results of these polls are promulgated. Without details of the "Don't Know" and "Won't Say" responses we don't actually know the true % support. If, for example, 20% were "won't say" then as I understand it a 40% support response is reported as 50%.

NZ wages will never improve significantly as long as we have welfare millstones hanging around our economic neck. Over the years Labour governments have added to the necklace of millstones, none more-so that the last comrade, who demonstrated a complete lack of economic knowledge, supported by Cullen's equal ignorance.
The media compound this problem with biased reporting, selective use of facts mainly. one needs to remember that a significant percentage of the voters, are semi literate and are easily persuaded by suave glib comments from politicians.