National forecast to govern alone

National could make history at the election by becoming the first party to win a majority of seats under MMP, according to iPredict’s weekly snapshot.

National’s forecast party vote share has jumped to 48.0% this week (up from 45.0% last week), which would give it 61 seats out of a 120 seat Parliament and enable it to govern alone.

Labour, on the other hand, is forecast to get under 30% of the party vote (29.7%), down from 32.7% last week and giving it only 37 MPs in Parliament.

Meanwhile, the Greens are predicted to profit from Labour’s decline, its forecast party vote rising from 7.6% last week to 9.0%, which would give it a record 11 MPs.

Act (4.2%, down from 4.9% last week) would have five MPs, while UnitedFuture (1.7%, up from 1.5%), the Maori Party (1.5%, down from 1.7%) and the Mana Party (steady at 1.3%) would have two each.

MMP is given an 83% chance of being retained in the referendum on election day.

On the economic front, GDP growth expectations have increased slightly and inflation expectations are steady.

Fonterra's final payout for the 2010/11 financial year is predicted to be $8.15 per kilogram of milk solids before retentions (up from $8.14 last week).

The payout in 2011/12 is expected to be $7.50. Both these numbers are ahead of Fonterra's official forecasts. 

This article is tagged with the following keywords. Find out more about My Tags

Post Comment

11 Comments & Questions

Commenter icon key: Subscriber Verified

It certainly is not in New Zealands interest to have one party dominance. Little srutiny leads to massive arrogance and an aura of invincibility.

Reply
Share

whether its national or liebour, the outcomes are the same. its all window dressing to the same leaky-country-syndrome. indeed, the UN arrive today don't they?

Reply
Share

Great to see Kiwis learning how to vote under MMP to get the country in the right hands, we have had a decade held to ransom by minnows of self-interest groups, finally the system is as the intelligent people vote!!

Reply
Share

MMP the musical, with Phil Goff played by that mouse from Stuart Little

Reply
Share

MMP the musical, with Phil Goff played by that mouse from Stuart Little

Reply
Share

MMP good?

you have the minority parties (read: maori party and green party) making deals to serve their own ends, both trying to impoverish the country.

if you support MMP party system, why on earth are you here reading business news on NBR??

Reply
Share

You seem to think MMP and business cannot co-exist. It has, it will and I suspect there are plenty of business people out there like me who actually prefer an MMP system that, although its had teething problems, is actually working reasonably well for all interests. Its a bit like certain rich-lister German's proposing a wealth tax to bridge the inequality gap in that country (go figure). They are not mutually exclusive.

Reply
Share

National to govern alone only beneficial if JK gets a new set of balls.

Reply
Share

Hey BoJangles, why would John Kirwan need new rugby balls ?

Reply
Share

Dont forget key and his cronies have nobbled the MMP referendum already! vote for any other method and you automatically increase the number of Maori seats. You have to dig to find this out, its in the small print.

Reply
Share

Agree with Bojangles, J Key needs to find a backbone somewhere and not govern by personality - make something happen John for gods sake.

Reply
Share

Post New comment or question

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

NZ Market Snapshot

Forex

Sym Price Change
USD 0.7804 -0.0029 -0.37%
AUD 0.8885 0.0012 0.14%
EUR 0.6240 0.0026 0.42%
GBP 0.4890 -0.0007 -0.14%
HKD 6.0423 -0.0323 -0.53%
JPY 87.4110 1.8440 2.16%

Commods

Commodity Price Change Time
Gold Index 1198.1 -13.300 2014-10-30T00:
Oil Brent 86.2 1.180 2014-10-30T00:
Oil Nymex 81.1 -1.180 2014-10-30T00:
Silver Index 16.4 -0.844 2014-10-30T00:

Indices

Symbol Open High Last %
NZX 50 5370.2 5405.3 5370.2 0.33%
NASDAQ 4639.4 4641.5 4566.1 1.34%
DAX 9283.4 9318.3 9114.8 2.01%
DJI 17208.8 17355.7 17195.4 0.83%
FTSE 6463.6 6553.4 6463.6 1.11%
HKSE 23913.7 24046.4 23702.0 1.25%
NI225 15817.1 16533.9 15658.2 4.83%