National forecast to govern alone
National could make history at the election by becoming the first party to win a majority of seats under MMP, according to iPredict’s weekly snapshot.
National’s forecast party vote share has jumped to 48.0% this week (up from 45.0% last week), which would give it 61 seats out of a 120 seat Parliament and enable it to govern alone.
Labour, on the other hand, is forecast to get under 30% of the party vote (29.7%), down from 32.7% last week and giving it only 37 MPs in Parliament.
Meanwhile, the Greens are predicted to profit from Labour’s decline, its forecast party vote rising from 7.6% last week to 9.0%, which would give it a record 11 MPs.
Act (4.2%, down from 4.9% last week) would have five MPs, while UnitedFuture (1.7%, up from 1.5%), the Maori Party (1.5%, down from 1.7%) and the Mana Party (steady at 1.3%) would have two each.
MMP is given an 83% chance of being retained in the referendum on election day.
On the economic front, GDP growth expectations have increased slightly and inflation expectations are steady.
Fonterra's final payout for the 2010/11 financial year is predicted to be $8.15 per kilogram of milk solids before retentions (up from $8.14 last week).
The payout in 2011/12 is expected to be $7.50. Both these numbers are ahead of Fonterra's official forecasts.