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National forecast to govern alone

National could make history at the election by becoming the first party to win a majority of seats under MMP, according to iPredict’s weekly snapshot.

National’s forecast party vote share has jumped to 48.0% this week (up from 45.0% last week), which would give it 61 seats out of a 120 seat Parliament and enable it to govern alone.

Labour, on the other hand, is forecast to get under 30% of the party vote (29.7%), down from 32.7% last week and giving it only 37 MPs in Parliament.

Meanwhile, the Greens are predicted to profit from Labour’s decline, its forecast party vote rising from 7.6% last week to 9.0%, which would give it a record 11 MPs.

Act (4.2%, down from 4.9% last week) would have five MPs, while UnitedFuture (1.7%, up from 1.5%), the Maori Party (1.5%, down from 1.7%) and the Mana Party (steady at 1.3%) would have two each.

MMP is given an 83% chance of being retained in the referendum on election day.

On the economic front, GDP growth expectations have increased slightly and inflation expectations are steady.

Fonterra's final payout for the 2010/11 financial year is predicted to be $8.15 per kilogram of milk solids before retentions (up from $8.14 last week).

The payout in 2011/12 is expected to be $7.50. Both these numbers are ahead of Fonterra's official forecasts. 

More by Niko Kloeten

Comments and questions

It certainly is not in New Zealands interest to have one party dominance. Little srutiny leads to massive arrogance and an aura of invincibility.

whether its national or liebour, the outcomes are the same. its all window dressing to the same leaky-country-syndrome. indeed, the UN arrive today don't they?

Great to see Kiwis learning how to vote under MMP to get the country in the right hands, we have had a decade held to ransom by minnows of self-interest groups, finally the system is as the intelligent people vote!!

MMP the musical, with Phil Goff played by that mouse from Stuart Little

MMP the musical, with Phil Goff played by that mouse from Stuart Little

MMP good?

you have the minority parties (read: maori party and green party) making deals to serve their own ends, both trying to impoverish the country.

if you support MMP party system, why on earth are you here reading business news on NBR??

You seem to think MMP and business cannot co-exist. It has, it will and I suspect there are plenty of business people out there like me who actually prefer an MMP system that, although its had teething problems, is actually working reasonably well for all interests. Its a bit like certain rich-lister German's proposing a wealth tax to bridge the inequality gap in that country (go figure). They are not mutually exclusive.

National to govern alone only beneficial if JK gets a new set of balls.

Hey BoJangles, why would John Kirwan need new rugby balls ?

Dont forget key and his cronies have nobbled the MMP referendum already! vote for any other method and you automatically increase the number of Maori seats. You have to dig to find this out, its in the small print.

Agree with Bojangles, J Key needs to find a backbone somewhere and not govern by personality - make something happen John for gods sake.