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National, Key take knock in post-Hager Digipoll

National and John Key have both taken knocks in the first post-Hager Herald Digipoll.

The fall is relative, however. The party could still govern alone if NZ First misses 5%, or with a single MP from a partner if Winston Peters' party does just tip over the MMP threshold.

The poll of 750 was taken August 14 to 20, capturing reaction to the release of Dirty Politics including the furore over Judith Collins releasing civil servant Simon Pleasants' name and contact details to Whale Oil, but not yesterday's kerfuffle over whether the PM knew about the rush-release of SIS documents under the Official Information Act to Cameron Slater.

It also took in the period of Labour's campaign launch an its new policy expanding free GP visits to include everyone under 13, pregnant women and over-65s.

And the Greens' campaign launch which included a $1 billion package to address child poverty, a promise to hike the top tax rate to 40%, and free public transport for students in off-peak hours (a policy perhaps aimed at shoring up youth support as Internet Mana pledges to wipe student loans).

It found:

Party vote

National 50 (down 4.9)
Labour 25.2 (down 1.3)
Greens 13.7 (up 3.8)
NZ First 4.3 (down 0.3)
Maori Party 0.7 (up 0.2)
Mana-Internet 2.1 (down 0.1)
ACT 0.6 (up 0.6)
United Future 0.4 (up 0.4)
Conservatives 2.6 (up 1.4)

Preferred Prime Minister

John Key Nation 64.8 (down 8.5)
David Cunliffe Labour 14.6 (up 4.1)
Winston Peters NZ First 5.1 (down 0.4)
Russel Norman 3.5 Greens (up 1.5)
David Shearer 1.5 Labour (down 0.7)
Helen Clark 1.4 former PM (up 0.9)

Seats in the house

National 64
Labour 32
Greens 18
NZ First 0
Internet Mana 3
Maori Party 1
United Future 1

The final Herald-Digipoll before the 2011 election put National on 50.9%. On election day, the party received 47.3% of the vote.

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Comments and questions

Interesting times ahead

Nice to see most preferred Prime Minister John Key September 2013 56% August 2014 65%.The voters of NZ know that for the country to continue its prosperity they need John Key, a lot more than any other pretender.The country is sick of being fed a diet of stolen personal emails,even one that mentioned the death of a persons mother, from cancer.The MSM daily newspapers have scored an own goal with their stolen emails being printed ad nausem.Labour have taken a hit.National could still rightfully govern alone.

Good that you are anonymous as the stupidity of your post needs no outside mockery. Keys chances of winning are hemorrhaging as the scandals role in The HMS National Titanic was thought unsinkable.....

A perceptive comment,cutting through all the spin!

More importantly is Labour is down. Despite all claims, nothing proved. Main stream media like NZ Herald are being made to look stupid.

Interesting times all right. With the original Seekers coming here next year, perhaps the election theme song for Mr Key should be their big hit, The Carnival is Over?

Which American president said "you can fool some of the people all of the time or you can fool all of the people some of the time,but you can't fool all of the people all of the time"?
Perhaps the carnival is over?

National and Key have just come back to where they were before the last poll which seemed an aberration at the time anyway.

Nice increase for the Conservatives. They definitely have momentum.
This result 2.6% is double what the digipoll before the 2011 election had them at.

Why is it that Conservative acolytes repeatedly appear to seize on what might very well be unrepresentatively sampled, outlier polls to herald their leader and his dubious entourage?

That poll is fatal news for Labour.

It has been great to hear that the guy known as Selwyn Manning from a left wing blog site The Daily Blog also got the same correspondence fast tracked by the SIS.Seems the conspiracy theory of right wing favouritism has been real and truly put to bed.Manning got the same advice as Cam Slater,without going through PMs office.

You shouldn't be so fast in celebrating Labour's demise, because, believe me, it will be replaced with something far worse (from your perspective). Bad news for Labour is good news for the Greens.

And the faster you trash the finite supply of primary resources, the Greens will enjoy growing support.

I really haven't wanted to vote national for a long time now but with all this left wing crap being thrown, I feel I am yet again backed into a corner and have no choice but to vote for them.

Oh, poor me! Why don't you utilse your brain power and consider the policieso of the major parties and then vote based on your preference!

Yep studied the policies, National have espoused theirs, Labour are a non starter their policies have either been knocked back or been devoid of any growth for NZ content, Greens more of the same tax more and give to their pet schemes, NZ First divide and rule xenophobes. So National win my vote.

All politicians will use blogs and strategic leaks of information so it comes down to who can Govern, John Key or the multiple headed hydra. It's a no brainer.

Clearly, because it's more complicated than that. A vote for National is a vote for National, because they will dominate their coalition.

However a vote for Labour is a vote for Russel Norman, Kim Dotcom, and Hone Harawira. If one is a middle class salary earner Labour says they will only tax you 36pc, yet the Greens say 40pc. Mana/internet want even higher taxes, plus whatever a "luxury tax" might mean. So how do you know where that might end up in a negotiation where Cunliffe is desperate to take his only chance of being Prime Minister? Basically, their stated policies are meaningless, because they are subject to their coalition partners.

It's the devil you know versus the multi-headed hydra you don't...

didn't I read the other day that the Greens expected to have the co-deputy PM role in any government with Labour? How do they get round that if we are unfortunate enough to have a change of government next month?

Easy. Norman will be deputy in first, third, fifth, seventh, ninth and eleventh months, with Ms. Turei taking the other months. 2016 will be a bit of a challenge as it is a leap year, so a coin toss should sort that out. This will promote NZ on the world stage like nothing before it. The ultimate in gender equality. The idea should spread like wild fire throughout the planet.

This very negative attack on National will do irreversible damage to the left wing parties who are all driving it including the Greens. Everyone knows politicians are power crazy and are very keen on their personal perks including their gold plated super which was voted into law one night many years ago while we all were asleep. They were so embarrassed by its generosity to themselves they could not do it while we were awake and capable of criticising it. We just want them to get on with introducing policies and laws that improve our lot. The average kiwi has a very modest lifestyle and they want it improved. Who can blame them when they see our politicians enjoying a much higher standard of living than the vast majority of the population.

For the public to have confidence in Government at the highest levels, we must have genuine transparency, accountability and the 'highest ethical standards'.

The FACTS that have been revealed through Nicky Hager's 'Dirty Politics' prove that New Zealand's 'perceived' status as the 'least corrupt country in the world', is meaningless garbage.

In my considered opinion, the party political, unregulated Office of the Prime Minister, is completely out of control.

In my considered opinion, and clear understanding, it's the supposedly apolitical, impartial DEPARTMENT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET (DPMC) that should be handling OIA requests/ replies and dealing with the SIS - NOT the Office of the Prime Minister.

Why is no one else focusing on this pivotal issue?

Where is the 'Rule of Law' / regulations / protocols and procedures that are supposed to guide how things are to be done in a proper way at the highest levels of Government in New Zealand?

How are Ministers to be held accountable to the 'highest ethical standards', by the Prime Minister (as set out in the Cabinet Manual), when the moral compass of John Key is apparently stuck on Wall Street?

ie: No laws / rules / regulations/ ethics / morals - just unbridled free-market casino capitalism at its most debauched?

How does Prime Minister John Key who has come directly from that Wall Street banker environment, detoxify, and transmogrify into a decent, honorable Statesman, committed to serving the public and the public interest?

It appears that he doesn't / hasn't - and now our New Zealand has been contaminated at the highest levels with these 'Wall Street' ways.

Time for a HUGE clean out?

I think so.

Penny Bright

Penny are you telling us that the PM department will improve when Labour/Greens/Mana and Internet are in power. They are all the same including National.

She is saying change policies so this doesn't happen again. Quite refreshing really.

Penny your sanctimonious attempt at claiming the moral high ground and the perspective from such a high ground is completely eroded and dissolved by your selfish and deluded "protest" of not paying your fair share - not paying anything towards all the amenities you use.

Pay your rates you freeloader!

Come on PB, what sort of transgression do you think Labour and the Greens would deliver us. Hone! Now there is someone who would work in the background to deliver racially pure marriages, Lilla she is in Kim's pocket do you think that will deliver clean politics.

National will take this opportunity to sharpen their processes and will as a result not only get elected for a third term but they will gain a FOURTH with John Key standing but offering to transition to Steven Joyce during the 2017 to 2020 National Government. By that time Kim will be doing porridge and David Cunliffe will be in the wilderness having been hung drawn and quartered in 2015 by his friends in the opposition cacus.

Well said,Penny!
We deserve better than the current main party offerings.

Wow, first time I've ever seen anyone agree with Penny Bright. Amazing. You must have been one of the 5 who voted for her over the last five years in various elections?

Interesting to see the Green party doing better when Russell Norman is kept off TV and only Metira Turei fronts. Norman does better as preferred PM when he is off the TV too.

Still waiting though to see journalists doing stories on the botched future budget figures the Greens released. They are trying to pretend they are playing with the adults, but can't do sums yet.

If there ever was a time that the invisible government appointed Transparency International were commenting, isn't this it.

David: Have you seen the Herald poll, God Almighty what do we have to do to, kneecap Key?
Russell: Kneecap?, I don’t think that’s enough maybe we can put about he hates animals,
Metiria, Animals? That wont help heck Brownlee is as big as a elephant and Joyce has a head like a bald eagle, What about we show him with a big gas guzzling hummer, while going thru a Carl’s Jnr drive thru?
Hone, nah that’s no good, no Carl’s whatever up north, and anyway then all the Bros would vote for him, There must be something
Lila, I know lets dress him up to look like a ‘sugar daddy’, does anyone know what they look like, I mean Key may look good in black like my ‘sugar daddy’
A collective sigh goes thru the ranks and Annette Sykes not one known to be patient especially with the Pakeha says ‘David, look to the words of that famous philosopher, George Gregan, “FOUR MORE YEARS”’

errr..... you may be unaware of this FACT - but in the 2013 Auckland Mayoral campaign - I polled 4th with nearly 12,000 votes.

11,723 votes - to be precise.

Not bad for an Independent?

Fascinating how many of my future Helensville constituents I'm meeting who voted for me last year :)

Kind regards,

Penny Bright

How many are we taking here? Six or half a dozen?