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National at record high, Labour at record low - iPredict

Gamblers on Victoria University-backed political marketplace iPredict are forecasting National's party vote to hit 50% - a new high.

Forecasts for party vote shares have National up from 49% last week. The Greens jumped to 10.3%, up from 8% the previous week.

In contrast, Labour has landed with a loss in vote shares to 28.1%, down from 30.2% last week and a record low on iPredict.

Act’s results have also declined marginally, moving down to a 2% share from 4.1% the previous week.

Those using iPredict to make bets around GDP growth have turned more pes

Members are betting growth will drop to 0.6% for the September quarter, down from 0.7% last week, 0.6% for the December quarter (steady), and 0.4% for the March 2012 quarter, which slides down from 0.6% last week.

Inflation expectations are also expected to deteriorate this week, with annual inflation expected to be 5.0% in the September quarter (steady), 2.8% in the December quarter, which is up from 2.7% last week, and 2.6% in the March 2012 quarter, up from 2.5% last week.

Current leaders of parliamentary parties have an average probability of 92% for remaining in their seats until election time. Don Brash is currently the most vulnerable of party leaders, but the market forecasting just an 8% probability he will be replaced before the election.

Brash has recently been in the spotlight regarding his radical views on cannabis decriminalisation, sparking mixed reactions not only from other party leaders, but from members of his own Act party. Brash’s recent views on the issue may be the final nail in his ‘legitimacy-coffin’ among the public and other party leaders, but only by letting the ball roll will we know for sure.

More by Robert McCambridge

Comments and questions
12

We have dictatorial allowed powers in nz

Maybe, but also English as a second language

Put the blame on Aunty for Labour's demise.

Those inept in the Labour Party are now seeing the fruits of their non-action for leaving Phil at the helm... asking the public to NOW vote for them is a total SHAM!!

Will careerman Phil be putting his hand up for a front bench opposition spot post election, so he can continue to make a difference?

Post-November Goff will be off. But the rest of Labour's rank cowards (sorry, leaders-in-waiting) should be ashamed enough to quit too.

Whether one likes it or not,Phil Goff, is an honest and hard worker, who in todays world of banker alied politicians, is hard to find. Nz, we will pay for the indecretions of banker oriantated balancing fiscal nz budget. Selling assets, to make some people wealthy, is far cry, much more to be ashamed of than an nzer , who has worked hard for nz.It seems jk, somply wants to leave when finished with being pm!How blind can the masses be when looking at all the glamour of model photoshooting!. Well, unfortunately, those born after 1980 can be forgiven for not knowing better!.

Whether one likes it or not,Phil Goff, is an honest and hard worker, who in todays world of banker alied politicians, is hard to find. Nz, we will pay for the indecretions of banker oriantated balancing fiscal nz budget. Selling assets, to make some people wealthy, is far cry, much more to be ashamed of than an nzer , who has worked hard for nz.It seems jk, somply wants to leave when finished with being pm!How blind can the masses be when looking at all the glamour of model photoshooting!. Well, unfortunately, those born after 1980 can be forgiven for not knowing better!.

he sat by for nine years and watched electricity rise 73% ... they promised not to take more than the top 5% at the the highest tax rate ... in years of surpluses they increased public sector jobs by more than 35% ... (non of which i assume added to the GDP of NZ in any substantial way). Labour is gone gone gone ... and those with the hands out on benefits continue to want this money well just how are labour planning to pay for it?? Seddon and the men who created the benefit system back in the day certainly did not see this route coming its shameful. It was supposed to be a hand up not a life style choice as many seem to view it today ....

the electricity price rise

the electricity price rise

Labour's biggest problem is they philosophically believe life should be fair and the way to do this is redistribute money from those who have more to those who have less. They have no concept of how to CREATE wealth.

National's biggest problem is going to be after the economy is put back on the right track, perhaps 3 terms in Gov, they will get complacent and Kiwis will forget what the last Labour Government did.

If National can keep improving the quality of life of Maori in particular (we can not afford a disaffected minority) then we may have a Natural Government for the country and the left will be discarded into the wilderness.