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National to squeeze in for third term – iPredict

The odds are favouring the National Party for another term in government, but only just, according to predictions by the Victoria University's political market website iPredict.

The first iPredict snapshot of the 2014 general election suggests a very slight advantage to incumbent prime minister John Key, most probably leading a National/Conservative/UnitedFuture government, with or without the Maori Party.

Overall, the market gives a 53.3% probability of a National prime minister after the next election and a 45.1% probability of a Labour prime minister.

According to the snapshot, taken at 9.32am today, National is expected to win 43.0% of the party vote, the Labour Party 34.5% and the Green Party 9.5%.

National’s advantage here compares with the last ONE News/Colmar Brunton Poll, taken in October, which had the party polling 45% support.

iPredict indicates no other parties are expected to reach the 5% threshold under the MMP electoral system. The Conservative and NZ First parties are both expected to win 4.6% of the party vote, the Maori Party 1.5%, Act 1.3%, Mana 0.7%, UnitedFuture 0.6% and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.3%.

Stocks for the proposed Civilian and Kim Dotcom parties will be launched in the near future, iPredict says.

Based on iPredict’s forecasts parliament would consist of National with 54 MPs, Labour 44 MPs, Greens 12 MPs, the Conservative Party 6 MPs, the Maori Party 2 MPs, UnitedFuture 1 MPs and Mana 1 MP, for a total of 120 MPs.

A government is required to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply.

Under this scenario, National, the Conservative Party and UnitedFuture could form a government with 61 MPs. Were the Maori Party involved, such a government would be supported by 63 MPs.

Were the Conservative Party not to win an electorate seat, a Labour/Green/Maori Party/Mana government could be formed with 62 MPs.

The election is most likely to be held in November, according to iPredict.

Meanwhile, economic growth is expected to be strong during the year, but with rising interest rates. 

More by Duncan Bridgeman

Comments and questions
15

What is overlooked is the growing underclasses being formed by families of homebuyers now being locked out of the overpriced Auckland market and rising interest rates.
Normally these people would not be bothered to vote.
I know several in this position.
No matter how strong the economy grows, interest rates and unafordablity of homes will become more important as the election gets nearer.

Nice try bro. Keep spreading your negative comment.

So they will come out and vote labour to weaken business and consumer confidence, get fired as the economy languishes, and make their housing dreams even less likely?

It's so hard to find cheap housing in Herne Bay, isn't it.

Probably the best prime minister and politician we have ever had but could we please have John Key the man and leader before he was elected.

The need to crawl on all fours with our MMP system has stripped decision making and real leadership. Policy is entirely for the future of the parties in Government, not New Zealand

With strong economic growth coupled with a lacklustre Opposition, ipredict has got it right.

A lot of hope in this prediction is being placed here on a good showing by the Conservatives. However, the centre vote this time is more likely to go left rather than right. Others, particularly younger males, will protest vote for Dotcom, given the ineffectiveness of polices around relating to connectivity.

Some simple moves (such as overseas buyers restricted to new builds) and more support for SMEs could have avoided this situation. National should be a whole lot more worried than they are.

Good to see the Conservatives doing so well.

I wouldn't read too much into it. There is a large self-selection bias here; and moreso the influence of these results by the $$ you choose to put on your individual prediction

The fact it is for real money means that people are more likely to reflect what they believe will happen rather than want to happen.

I believe that prediction markets like this one are almost always more accurate than polls.

iPredict? More like iWish!

Sadly for National John Keys sucking up to the USA has done him and his party no favours.

Go CONSERVATIVES!!!

Yes, please go Conservatives.

You silly people, obviously it should be Party Vote - ACT