National steady or rising in 3 of 4 post-Collins resignation polls

Herald Digipoll

Judith Collins resignation from cabinet seems to have helped National draw a line under the Dirty Politics controversy, rather than plunge the party's campaign into chaos.

A Fairfax-Ipsos poll released this morning has National up 3.4% to 54.2%, and Labour falling to 1.8% to 24.3% (although it has to be seen in the light of the Fairfax survey exaggerating National's support in 2011; while all polls over-stated support for the incumbent in 2011, Fairfax's poll had the biggest reality gap. Its final poll put National on 54.0%; National received 47.3% of the vote on election day).

A Herald Digipoll out this morning, also says National could govern alone. It has the party down 0.6 to 50.1

The Digipoll also has Labour failing to capitalise on Dirty Politics, with the party down 0.3% to 23.8%. 

A 3News-Reid Research poll released Wednesday had National up 1.4% to 46.4% and Labour down 0.5% to 25.9%. (up 1.4 percent compared to August 19-25 poll). Translated to election day, that would mean National would need the support of the Maori Party (not guaranteed to hold its three seats) or NZ First to form a government.

Wednesday's Roy Morgan poll had the most opposition-friendly outcome. It had National taking a three point knock to 45.0%.  However, the news is not all good for Labour, which slipped 1.5 to 26% while the Greens 4.5% to 16% — and giving Labour and the Greens a combined 42%.

The Herald Digipoll had both Key and Cunliffe rising.

Preferred PM
In the preferred PM stakes, today's Fairfax-Ipsos poll has John Key up to 2.6 points since August 27 to 57.6% and David Cunliffe falling half a point to 17.5%.

3News-Reid Research had Key up 3.7% to 45.1% and Cunliffe up 0.3% to 11.4%.

What do you think? Would a grand coalition between National and Labour be preferable to either party propped up by NZ First or other minor parties? Click here to vote in our subscriber-only business pulse poll.


Poll summaries via Curiablog

NZ Herald Digipoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 respondents

Dates: 28 August to 03 September 2014

Party Support

National 50.1% (-0.6%)
Labour 23.8% (-0.3%)
Green 11.4% (nc)
NZ First 6.0% (+1.0%)
Maori 0.4% (-0.6%)
United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
ACT 0.4% (+0.1%)
Mana/Internet 3.5% (+0.1%)
Conservative 3.8% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

National 63
Labour 30
Green 14
Maori 3
United Future 1
ACT 1
Mana/Internet 4
NZ First 7
Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

CR – National 63 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 65/123 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
CL – Labour 30 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 4 = 48/123 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/123

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Fairfax Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1000 respondents of whom 819 have a party preference

Dates: 28 August to 03 September 2014

Party Support

National 54.2% (+3.4%)
Labour 24.3% (-1.8%)
Green 12.9% (+1.1%)
NZ First 3.6% (-0.4%)
Maori 0.3% (-0.4%)
United Future 0.1% (nc)
ACT 0.2% (-0.5%)
Mana 1.3% (-0.9%)
Conservative 2.4% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

National 70
Labour 31
Green 17
ACT 1
Maori 3
United Future 1
Mana 2
NZ First 0
Total 125
This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

CR – National 70 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 72/125 – nine more than the minimum needed to govern
CL – Labour 31 + Greens 17 + Mana 2 = 50/125 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/125

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

3News Reid Research

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Poll Method: Random Phone

Dates: 26 to 31 August 2014

Party Support

National 46.4% (+1.4%)
Labour 25.9% (-0.5%)
Green 12.6% (-0.9%)
ACT 0.6% (+0.3%)
Maori 2.0%  (+1.3%)
United Future 0.1% (-0.3%)
Mana/Internet 1.7% (-0.4%)
NZ First 5.8% (-0.5%)
Conservative 4.2% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

National 58
Labour 33
Green 16
ACT 1
Maori 3
United Future 1
Mana/Internet 2
NZ First 7
Total 121
This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
CL – Labour 33 + Greens 16 + Mana/Internet 2 = 51/121 – ten fewer than minimum needed to govern
C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/121

On this poll, the centre parties would hold the balance of power. National could govern with NZ First or with the Maori Party (and ACT/UF). Labour could only govern with the Greens, Internet Mana, NZ First and the Maori Party.

This article is tagged with the following keywords. Find out more about My Tags

NZ Market Snapshot

Forex

Sym Price Change
USD 0.7743 -0.0004 -0.05%
AUD 0.9483 -0.0021 -0.22%
EUR 0.6328 -0.0008 -0.13%
GBP 0.4950 -0.0007 -0.14%
HKD 6.0052 -0.0021 -0.03%
JPY 92.5330 -0.0510 -0.06%

Commods

Commodity Price Change Time
Gold Index 1195.4 -2.890 2014-12-19T00:
Oil Brent 61.4 1.580 2014-12-19T00:
Oil Nymex 57.1 2.910 2014-12-19T00:
Silver Index 16.0 0.096 2014-12-19T00:

Indices

Symbol Open High Last %
NZX 50 5527.8 5553.7 5527.8 0.25%
NASDAQ 4752.6 4782.1 4748.4 0.36%
DAX 9827.3 9880.4 9787.0 0.86%
DJI 17778.0 17874.0 17778.2 0.15%
FTSE 6545.3 6620.9 6545.3 0.96%
HKSE 23264.0 23478.9 23116.6 1.26%
NI225 17685.5 17692.6 17621.4 0.08%