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National steady or rising in 3 of 4 post-Collins resignation polls

Judith Collins resignation from cabinet seems to have helped National draw a line under the Dirty Politics controversy, rather than plunge the party's campaign into chaos.

A Fairfax-Ipsos poll released this morning has National up 3.4% to 54.2%, and Labour falling to 1.8% to 24.3% (although it has to be seen in the light of the Fairfax survey exaggerating National's support in 2011; while all polls over-stated support for the incumbent in 2011, Fairfax's poll had the biggest reality gap. Its final poll put National on 54.0%; National received 47.3% of the vote on election day).

A Herald Digipoll out this morning, also says National could govern alone. It has the party down 0.6 to 50.1

The Digipoll also has Labour failing to capitalise on Dirty Politics, with the party down 0.3% to 23.8%. 

A 3News-Reid Research poll released Wednesday had National up 1.4% to 46.4% and Labour down 0.5% to 25.9%. (up 1.4 percent compared to August 19-25 poll). Translated to election day, that would mean National would need the support of the Maori Party (not guaranteed to hold its three seats) or NZ First to form a government.

Wednesday's Roy Morgan poll had the most opposition-friendly outcome. It had National taking a three point knock to 45.0%.  However, the news is not all good for Labour, which slipped 1.5 to 26% while the Greens 4.5% to 16% — and giving Labour and the Greens a combined 42%.

The Herald Digipoll had both Key and Cunliffe rising.

Preferred PM
In the preferred PM stakes, today's Fairfax-Ipsos poll has John Key up to 2.6 points since August 27 to 57.6% and David Cunliffe falling half a point to 17.5%.

3News-Reid Research had Key up 3.7% to 45.1% and Cunliffe up 0.3% to 11.4%.

What do you think? Would a grand coalition between National and Labour be preferable to either party propped up by NZ First or other minor parties? Click here to vote in our subscriber-only business pulse poll.


Poll summaries via Curiablog

NZ Herald Digipoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 respondents

Dates: 28 August to 03 September 2014

Party Support

National 50.1% (-0.6%)
Labour 23.8% (-0.3%)
Green 11.4% (nc)
NZ First 6.0% (+1.0%)
Maori 0.4% (-0.6%)
United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
ACT 0.4% (+0.1%)
Mana/Internet 3.5% (+0.1%)
Conservative 3.8% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

National 63
Labour 30
Green 14
Maori 3
United Future 1
ACT 1
Mana/Internet 4
NZ First 7
Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

CR – National 63 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 65/123 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
CL – Labour 30 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 4 = 48/123 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/123

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Fairfax Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1000 respondents of whom 819 have a party preference

Dates: 28 August to 03 September 2014

Party Support

National 54.2% (+3.4%)
Labour 24.3% (-1.8%)
Green 12.9% (+1.1%)
NZ First 3.6% (-0.4%)
Maori 0.3% (-0.4%)
United Future 0.1% (nc)
ACT 0.2% (-0.5%)
Mana 1.3% (-0.9%)
Conservative 2.4% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

National 70
Labour 31
Green 17
ACT 1
Maori 3
United Future 1
Mana 2
NZ First 0
Total 125
This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

CR – National 70 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 72/125 – nine more than the minimum needed to govern
CL – Labour 31 + Greens 17 + Mana 2 = 50/125 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/125

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

3News Reid Research

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Poll Method: Random Phone

Dates: 26 to 31 August 2014

Party Support

National 46.4% (+1.4%)
Labour 25.9% (-0.5%)
Green 12.6% (-0.9%)
ACT 0.6% (+0.3%)
Maori 2.0%  (+1.3%)
United Future 0.1% (-0.3%)
Mana/Internet 1.7% (-0.4%)
NZ First 5.8% (-0.5%)
Conservative 4.2% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

National 58
Labour 33
Green 16
ACT 1
Maori 3
United Future 1
Mana/Internet 2
NZ First 7
Total 121
This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
CL – Labour 33 + Greens 16 + Mana/Internet 2 = 51/121 – ten fewer than minimum needed to govern
C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/121

On this poll, the centre parties would hold the balance of power. National could govern with NZ First or with the Maori Party (and ACT/UF). Labour could only govern with the Greens, Internet Mana, NZ First and the Maori Party.

Comments and questions
21

Great to think National may be able to govern alone. I think the greatest threat to stable government would be national having to 'rely' on Winston first, so I'd like to see the final result in line with the latest Fairfax ipsos poll.

The current polls are merely confirming that many voters accept that all politicians use dirty tactics. National are not the only ones and are probably the best in a bad bunch. Hager has lost the opposition three weeks where the populace did not hear much about policies which has helped National. Then David stuffs up CGT and shows his lack of intelligence and ability to think on his feet. Shane Jones was the only Labour leader New Zealand would have warmed to . How many New Zealanders are swarming David for selfies like they swarmed John in Invercargill yesterday. He is not perfect, he does play dirty, he is not brilliant intellectually but he is the best of a bad bunch and someone I could have a drink with.

Interesting that this morning on Talkback, Michael Bassett hinted that Matt McCarten might be the driving force behind the Dirty Tricks campaign.

That's been a widely held view for days - where there's smoke there's fire!

And in the most shocking revelations of all, David Cunliffe likes Joy Division and David Gray. That's certainly lost him the Rock vote

As John Ansell says in the opening passages of Dirty Politics, negative campaigning always benefits the right, regardless of the outcome or the perpetrator. People who are either poorly educated or socially alienated our downright poor take one look at this BS and go "ugh, no thanks."

And here we have it. A government fixated on nothing but increasing the gap between rich and poor, digging ever deeper into its box of dirty tricks, turning away in droves the people who would have the most to gain by voting against it.

Never has one government given so much to its own voters at the expense of all the rest. 3rd world, here we come.

You are aware the gap between the rich and poor hasn't changed on 20 years:

http://www.msd.govt.nz/about-msd-and-our-work/publications-resources/monitoring/household-incomes/index.html

'Overall, there is no evidence of any sustained rise or fall in inequality in the last two decades. The level of household disposable income inequality in New Zealand is a little above the OECD median. The share of total income received by the top 1% of individuals is at the low end of the OECD rankings.'

and:

'Over the three decades from 1982 to 2013 different income groups fared differently over different periods. The net gains over the last two decades from the mid 1990s to 2013 were similar for all income groups. Because of this similarity in net gains, income inequality in 2013 was similar to what it was in the mid 1990s.'

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/whole-latta-derp-160247

You are correct, Mr Magoo. Income inequality has not increased in New Zealand over the last 20 years. And the Left have been told this time and time again, but they just don't want to know.

If the govt. has given more to its voters than ever before, then why not become one of their voters like me?

Backlash against Labour for wallowing in the mud as expected - nothing positive about their 'dirty tricks' politicking to hide their own dirty deeds over the decades.

Yes, I bet Helen Clark's emails would have made interesting reading!

Amazing how the mere revelation of what senior National figures have been up to has been characterised as "dirty tricks".

Nothing like attacking the source to distract from what National figures have actually been doing.

See no evil, hear no evil, Honest John would never lie to us.

I have only ever voted National in my life, but will not be doing so this election.

And of course Labour has never played dirty politics. So are you still voting right in fanour of Colin or Winston or are you attempting to assist the five headed monster?

And so follows the second line of dismissal: everyone does it / two wrongs make a right.

Bill English stood in front of the press and proclaimed that he doesn't do it, and wouldn't do it. Maybe he just has more integrity than Dirty Judy and the PM's office (Was it me, was it my office? Who can know? At the end of the day I think New Zealanders care more about Snapper).

If Labour was as dirty National would not have hesitated to expose it. That would have been the easiest defence. Hasn't happened.

I wouldn't be surprised if John & Judy's side show drops NZ down a place in Transparency Internationals ranking of countries by corruption.

Labour are about to get exposed. I read an interesting comment this morning regarding the identity of Rawshark, and his connections to certain people. Notice Rawshark has just permanently signed off from Whaledump2. Labour are about to get rorted and I presume you'll be taking a similar stance against them in keeping with your comments above.

Popcorn time methinks.

If it happens - absolutely the same stance. Rawshark has been clear that he has handed everything to the press, thus has no further role.

I will not allow my loyalty to one party to make me excuse that party's unethical conduct, unlike many here in the NBR comments.

Having lived for years in a couple of third world countries, New Zealand should actively work against our leaders starting to behave like 3rd world politicians.

It benefits no one for us to have leaders who believe they are above the law, entitled to bully, and entitled to run roughshod over the spirit of our law.

"When the president does it that means that it is not illegal."

It's a shame so many here in the NBR comments are willing to excuse anything John & Judy might get up to.

As an aside, if National get in I wonder who will be our PM in 12-18 months. The most likely reason Dirty Judy was canvassing Winston was for garnering support once John Key takes off to his next job, and he does seem to be looking like he's getting ready to move on. So that leaves...Stephen Joyce? Strewth.

Labour are far, far worse.

Are you forgetting aws created by Labour to quash election spending, then the pilfering and misappropriation of approx. $840K of tax payer monies to tilt the playing field, trying to rig the election before Comrade Auntie's landslide defeat?

Surely you remember - Labour then had to change the law so as to avoid prosecuting itself.

Before that - the 6 weeks "Fat Tony" spent in Aussie trying to find "pay dirt" on Key, yet despite all the digging and digging and despite best manufacturing efforts they still couldn't find something that was never there in the first place.

If you don't think Hager and the political Left politicians and complicit media are not all colluding together - can I sell you the Harbour Bridge? There's a Friday afternoon special if you buy before 4pm.

Ah, I've seen you're increasing presence here providing National apologetics.

As noted, I've only ever voted National before. I voted National when Labour created that stupid law, and it's been very disappointing to see National keep it in place with barely any change.

What allegations do you think Hager has made up? I haven't seen National coming out and disproving any of the materials leaked. Collins has actually had to resign (final, final, final last chance) because deep down they know the materials are accurate.

Also, who deletes a Facebook account post-facto and then claims messages are forgeries? And if they are, why is an injunction then required to stop people exposing them?

Oh good, you're voting ACT

Presidential elections were held in Chile on 4 September 1970. Salvador Allende of the Popular Unity alliance won a narrow plurality in the public vote, before having his victory confirmed by a Congressional vote after the Christian Democrats voting in favour of his candidacy. Eduardo Frei Montalva and his Christian Democratic Party would later unite with Allende's opponents to form a congressional majority in an attempt to declare his presidency illegal in August 1973, catalyzing the Chilean coup of 1973 a few weeks later.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chilean_presidential_election,_1970

[Winston Peters] of the [cross-benches] alliance won a narrow plurality in the [post-election period], before having his victory confirmed by [the Governor-General] after the [Labour Party's] voting in favour of his [leadership]. [David Cunliffe] and his [Labour Party] ... would later unite with [National] to form a [parliamentary] majority in an attempt to declare his [government] illegal, catalyzing the [declaration of martial-law] a few weeks later.

In similar fashion to the one 'who flew over the cuckoo's nest' this one here has skirted around the NBR padlocks.

It's a magnificent day in the south, far too nice to be wallowing in political crud and contemplating merry dances such as we saw from Bill English on TV3 'the Nation' earlier today.

The discussion moderator did an excellent job and Labour's David Parker held his ground from a political perspective while treating us to a measure of integrity.

As to whether Parker or English has the makings of a 'leader of the people' - catch the replay tomorrow and judge for yourself.

People are voting right now. Be it contrived or simply inane, the whole shocking scenario does not point to sound and stable governance.