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National still forecast to govern alone

National is still forecast to govern alone after the election, according to prediction website iPredict.

This week’s iPredict snapshot predicts National will get 48.0% of the party vote (unchanged from last week), giving it 61 MPs in a 120-seat Parliament.

Meanwhile, Labour is again forecast to get less than 30% of the party vote, dropping to 29.3% (from 29.7% last week), giving it 38 MPs.

The Greens are forecast to get 9.0% (down from 8.0% last week), giving the party 10 MPs, while Act’s forecast party vote also dropped, from 4.2% to 3.9%, which would give it five MPs.

UnitedFuture, the Maori Party and the Mana Party are forecast to get two MPs each, while New Zealand First, with a forecast 4.9% (up from 4.1% last week) and no electorate seats is predicted to miss out altogether.

If New Zealand First managed to reach the 5% party vote threshold the composition of Parliament would be significantly different.

National would have 58 MPs, Labour 35, the Greens 10, New Zealand First six, Act five and the Maori Party, UnitedFuture and the Mana Party 2 MPs each.

There would be 120 MPs, meaning National would require the support of the Act Party or the Maori Party and UnitedFuture to govern.

The iPredict snapshot also shows growth and inflation expectations are steady.  

More by Niko Kloeten

Comments and questions
6

Given the strong anti Brash sentiment within the the National Party, I don't think Act will get a look-in as a junior partner before other considerations are taken into account. I think "last cab off the rack" will apply.

Great - if National can govern alone then that would be fantastic. I am sick of the minor parties under MMP blackmailing the majority of Kiwis and having a disproportionate influence e.g. Sue Bradford, Winston Peters. MMP was good in theory - giving everyone a voice - but in theory it was a disaster. All things considered, it is better for the 'middle majority' to control the country at the expense of the fringes, cos' as we have seen, the fringes do not tend to exercise their voice very responsibily (I suppose that is why they are the minority!!).

NZ has to have Don Brash and ACT as part of the government mix. Without that influence we will continue along the road of stagnation and decline.
Sooner or later we have to make some big decisions and JK is certainly not into big decisions.

Yeah, big smiles but no balls

Hahahaaa no rhetoric from Winston .... who love to see him leave as a nobody bit like his wine box ... much a do about nothing!!

the horizon poll is the only correct poll, the media in this country is right wing, i will wait for election day to see the true result as jim bolger said bugger the polls.