National still forecast to govern alone
National is still forecast to govern alone after the election, according to prediction website iPredict.
This week’s iPredict snapshot predicts National will get 48.0% of the party vote (unchanged from last week), giving it 61 MPs in a 120-seat Parliament.
Meanwhile, Labour is again forecast to get less than 30% of the party vote, dropping to 29.3% (from 29.7% last week), giving it 38 MPs.
The Greens are forecast to get 9.0% (down from 8.0% last week), giving the party 10 MPs, while Act’s forecast party vote also dropped, from 4.2% to 3.9%, which would give it five MPs.
UnitedFuture, the Maori Party and the Mana Party are forecast to get two MPs each, while New Zealand First, with a forecast 4.9% (up from 4.1% last week) and no electorate seats is predicted to miss out altogether.
If New Zealand First managed to reach the 5% party vote threshold the composition of Parliament would be significantly different.
National would have 58 MPs, Labour 35, the Greens 10, New Zealand First six, Act five and the Maori Party, UnitedFuture and the Mana Party 2 MPs each.
There would be 120 MPs, meaning National would require the support of the Act Party or the Maori Party and UnitedFuture to govern.
The iPredict snapshot also shows growth and inflation expectations are steady.