National has released their 2014 Party List. I’ve done my normal calculations to show the approximate level of party vote needed for candidates to get elected. (Click to zoom)
The assumptions are:
- No change in electorate seats (I actually think there will be some, but for this exercise am assuming the status quo)
- There is 3% wasted vote
National is currently averaging 52.5% in the polls. If we assume National gets 49%, then get 63 MPs. The caucus demographics would be:
- 73% European (46), 16% Maori (10), 6% Asian (4), 5% Pasifika (3)
- 71% Male (45), 29% Female (18)
- 2% in 20s, 10% in 30s, 37% in 40s, 41% in 50s, 11% in 60s
- 38% from Northern Region, 18% CNI, 19% LNI, 17% Cant Westland, 8% Southern
Reasonably good demographic spread. I would like to see the proportion of women higher, but National has only five list only spots, so the challenge is not ranking women in winnable places (which National has done) but having more women win electorate nominations (which are decided purely locally).
Overall on a result of 49% National would have 17 new MPs – 10 electorate MPs and 7 List MPs.
The new List MPs would be Brett Hudson, Paramjit Parmar, Chris Bishop, Nuk Korako, Jono Naylor, Maureen Pugh and Fia Turner. But four of those people could well win their seats also (Hutt South, Port Hills, Palmerston North and West Coast – Tasman).
The placing of Brett Hudson (Ohariu) so highly means that you don’t have to be a clairvoyant to predict that National will endorse Peter Dunne in Ohariu.
Chris Bishop is the highest ranked male new candidate (excepting the strategic seat of Ohariu) which is a great result for him. Chris is one of the top debaters in New Zealand and will be a real asset to National in the House if he gets elected.
So potentially 17 new MPs is an excellent renewal for National. even if National only gets what the got last time (47.5%) they still get 61 MPs, which is 15 new MPs.