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Nats strong ahead of Budget — poll

On the eve of the budget, a new poll says National has enough support to govern alone if an election were held tomorrow.

The Fairfax-Ipsos random phone survey of 1011, taken May 10-12, found National support only slightly dented following the Collins and Williamson controversies — a stark contrast to a recent Roy Morgan poll.

The Labour-Greens bloc was flat on around 42% as Labour leaked support to the Greens.

John Key's preferred PM rating dipped 1% to 48.6%.

Labour leader David Cunliffe fell 3.9% to 13.4%.

Late yesterday, Kim Dotcom's Intenet Party announced it had been officially registered.

The party, which is still in negotiations with Mana over a possible shared list, registered 0.6% in the Fairfax-Ipsos poll. Roy Morgan had Dotcom's Party on 1.5% — enough to bring an MP in on Mana leader Hone Harawira's coat-tails if he holds his Maori seat, and the two parties ally. However, new allegations over use of Nazi gestures and racist language by Kim Dotcom might hinder negotiations between the two parties.

Labour has faced its own mini-scandal with revelations that want-to-be Tamaki Makauru candidate Shane Taurima had carried out Labour Party campaigning using TVNZ resources. Leader David Cunliffe has backed a Labour Party Council decision to block Mr Taurima from standing in the seat. However, today Mr Cunliffe faces a challenge from the Tamaki Makauru electorate committee, which continues to back Mr Taurima as the best candidate for the Maori electorate.

Fairfax-Ipsos poll May 10-12: curiablog summary 

Party Support

  • National 47.6% (-1.8%)
  • Labour 29.5% (-2.3%)
  • Green 12.7% (+2.7%)
  • NZ First 3.7% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 1.9% (+0.8%)
  • United Future 0.1% (nc)
  • ACT 0.9% (+0.4%)
  • Mana 0.5% (+0.2%)
  • Conservative 1.6% (-0.5%)
  • Internet Party 0.6% (new)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 38
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 16 + Mana 1 = 55/122 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/122

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 48.6% (-1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 13.4% (-3.9%)
  • Winston Peters 3.4% (+0.6%)

Country Direction

  • Right 63.6% (-0.1%)

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Comments and questions

What scandals? These so called scandals are silly and minor. I have stopped listening to the NZ media trying to dig a story out of stone. One day something interesting will happen here.

Can anybody please explain the wide discrepancy between this poll and the Roy Morgan poll? seems too good to be true!!

What part of good or true would you like.

Because the Fairfax Ipsos poll is 7% out as usual. When they were called Fairfax / Research International they were consistently 7% in favour of National on 54% last election (actual 47%)

How convenient to quote selective figures that suit your pro Labour bias.
Fairfax last election poll 2011, had:
Labour at 26%, actual result 27.5,
Greens 12%, actual result 11.1%
So any way you spin it, this is a BAD result for Labour.
Fairfax were accurate re the Labour /Green combined vote share at 38% in their last poll compared to the actual 2011 result of 38.6%.
Living in denial is a common feature of the Left.

this poll seems to suggest that the Opposition (and the press) have over[played their hand and people have recognized that.

The Campbell Live "At home with the Cunliffes" was interesting in that the focus was more on Mr Cunliffe's wife than on him. Perhaps Labour should make her their leader

So how come the Roy Morgan survey is so far away from the Fairfax Ipsos survey. I note that Morgan surveyed fewer than Fairfax and their comments were gleefully pro-Labour. Is this the answer?

Simple. They surveyed different people.