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Nats touch 50% in latest poll

National is within spitting distance of 50% support, according to the latest poll.

A Fairfax-Ipsos survey (full results here) finds:

National: 49.4% (Oct 2013 Fairfax-Ipsos poll: 50.2%)
Labour: 31.8% (33.6%)
Greens: 10.00% (10.7%)
NZ First: 3.6% (2.3%)

Other parties were in margin-of-error territories, led by Colin Craig's Conservatives, which was up 1.3% to 2%. Kim Dotcom's putative Internet Party drew no support.

In a now familiar patten, the poll found a new Labour policy holding a degree of appeal (48.5% supported the $60/week baby bonus scheme) but without translating to any bounce in list vote support.

Despite National's slight dip in support (in the Fairfax-Ipsos universe), more New Zealander's thought the country was on the right track: 63.7% compared to the October Fairfax-Ipsos poll's 59.5%

Assuming ACT, United Future, Mana and the Maori Party all retain the seats they currently have, Parliament would be made up o 124 seats (with four in overhang).

National would hold 64 seats - enough to govern outright.

A National-led government's majority would increase to 66 with the inclusion of United Future and ACT, and to 69 if current coalition partner The Maori Party holds its three seats and maintains its support.

Ipsos polled a representative sample of 1018 people by random telephone survey, February 8 to February 10.  The poll had a margin of error of +/- 3.0%.

Its result contrasts with a 3News-Reid Research poll carried out in the last week of January, catching only partial reaction to Labour and National's state-of-the-nation speeches and policy launches. 3News-Reid Research had National on 44.5%, behind a combined Labour-Greens vote of 45.9%. The survey had NZ First in a kingmaker position with 5.7% of the vote.

In January, Prime Minister John Key extended an MMP olive branch to Winston Peters, indicating National was now open to working with his party.

Their relationship has been under stress this week, however, over with Mr Key revealing Mr Peters met with Kim Dotcom on three occassions. TheNZ First leader in turn sided with Mr Dotcom over his allegation that the Prime Minister knew about the January 20, 2012 raid on his rented mansion before it occured. Mr Peters also accused the government of spying on him.

Comments and questions

I am not surprised to read this percentage. A party that enjoys its kiwi popularity simply because someone looks nice on tv and is said to be such a nice successful man, and my mum & dad always voted for blue (or red). Contrasted with a rabble of opposition that too often come across as nutters. I suppose the country is getting what it deserves. Mediocrity.

Perhaps National enjoys its Kiwi popularity because they are not Labour or The Greens, and offer the only way to keep that dreaded combination out of power, rather than anyone's supposed nice looks on TV.

So say all of us common sense NZ voters ,who know which party rewards workers with realistic economic decisions,keeping NZ top of the pops.Would be a disaster for the good ship NZ, if the nation came under the clutches of opposition parties, who would rather NZ follow the North Korean mentality, and mirror their social engineering dogma..

The country will certainly get mediocrity if the great unwashed succumb to the Cunliffe' drivel, which is what will happen if the MSM keep promoting him.

The three major parties all have lower support and most of the minor parties have seen their support increase. This is the highest faifax poll result for the Conservatives as was the November poll results for TV3 and UMR and shows them as a party on the rise.

The Conservatives will get nowhere until they drop their binding referendum policy. They should look hard at Switzerland's latest debacle.

Yeah, 'cos democracy and the will of the people should be irrelevant.

Thank goodness for this!! could you imagine the alternatives running the place, in fact do we have an alternative?? looks as though commonsense is going to prevail, as the Country by World standards and comparisons is in pretty dammed good shape!!
Gifts from taxpayers to have babies, have you ever seen anything to equal it!!! spare us the torture of that standard of governess

Yes, we do have an alternative. And it looks like North Korea, Cuba, Zimbabwe and Greece.

'nuff said.

I suppose there is always Ecuador or Russia. I think ill be shifting country if the usa gets in again

We will take our chances without you ( especially if you want New Zealand to be more like Ecuador and Russia ). If the hard-left get in, there will be many more other people heading for the airport - people like business owners, entrepreneurs, etc.

Just look at what is happening to France who elected a left govt last year. Now the most unpopular on record with record unemployment and no one will invest.