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Nearly 100,000 new jobs in next two years, Labour Dept says

Slow, steady job growth is predicted for the next two years by a new short-term employment forecast produced by the Department of Labour, with growth strongest in Auckland, Christchurch and in skilled and professional roles.

The outlook forecasts a further 100,000 jobs will open up over the same period from people retiring and leaving the workforce, on top of the 93,700 new jobs it expects to be created between now and March 2014. Some 32,400 of the forecast increase is in the construction sector, reflecting the Christchurch rebuild and expected growth in Auckland, while 33,600 will be highly skilled positions.

The 4.2 percent increase over two years is expected to bring the official unemployment rate down to 5.4 percent by March 2014 from 6.3 percent at present. That’s a higher rate of joblessness than the Reserve Bank’s forecast of 4.8 percent in its latest monetary policy statement.

The new short-term employment prospects survey uses a new forecasting model, and will be produced twice yearly to complement other official statistics and forecasting, and is expected to assist with policy development on skills, employment and welfare issues.

“Our model complements other government forecasting as it reports on 11 regions, 28 industries and 96 occupational groups, and allows us to forecast employment growth breakdowns by region, industry and skill level,” the general manager of the department’s Labour and Immigration Research Centre, Vasantha Krishnan said.

The job growth rate ramps over the two year period, with 1.8 percent growth forecast this year and 2.4 percent in the year to March 2014, although the pace of reconstruction in Christchurch will be a key factor, and will produce a one-off surge in construction sector work. Employment growth in the year to March this year was 1.1 percent, the department estimates.

“Overall, our view is one of slow, steady growth in employment,” said Krishnan.

Agricultural processing, construction and utilities industries such as telecommunications and energy will drive job growth outside Christchurch, and be strongest in highly skilled jobs.

“Opportunities for lower-skilled workers are expected to account for more than one-third of the employment growth over the period,” said Krishnan, driven by the food processing, retailing, accommodation, agriculture and construction industries.

“Employment growth is expected to be strongest in the Auckland region, driven by growth in wholesale and retail trade, transport and storage and business services which are employment-intensive industries and in the Canterbury region, mainly in construction-related activities.” 

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Comments and questions
9

All i here is outlook for this outlook for that from all these departments, they say all these things like a lot of hot air,its been going on for years, promise this promise that and you no what nothing happens,Bollards the same, Governments are the same old same old, load of old bollocks.

Correct, but you would be amazed at how may people make a good living out of shovelling this stuff. Cheers

John Key's estimate was for 170K new jobs over 4 years and it was about as legitimate as this drivel.

“Overall, our view is one of slow, steady growth in employment,” said Krishnan.

over the next DECADE !!

Add, "Yeah Right!" after 100,000 new jobs! We can only trust the figure for the number of kiwi's leaving the country, 53,000 last 12 months plus the 100,000 in Nationals first term! These figure I have more faith in than the "Guesstimates" the government comes up with.

Usual cuckoo-land clap-trap from right-wing

Hey Comrade - you need some perpsective before you spout off!
51 000 left for OZ last 12 months. OFFSET BY.. 14 000 returning Kiwis from OZ, Natural and migratory increases of 91000 - so do some math Comrade don't just spout off a one dimensional figure. We WILL see significant job and continued population growth - see the NZ population clock and Stats NZ dempgraphic historical and projection information.

Unfortunately NZ needs to quit the negative attitude on all fronts. That's 1/2 the reason NZers leave for Australia, the other half of course being better wages for the work carried out on an equal basis.
Our negativity needs to go out the window, foster positivity in all we do, including our work place and wages, and stop moaning and do positive things. And, if something positive cant be said to uplift the spirit the nation (our people) then be soosh, or better still be creative and make something great happen.
Also, as far as wages go comparing to Oz, yes they are better, but while the $ took alot of my friends and family there temporarily, alot have stayed permanently because of the positivity that surrounds them in their everyday life, not just the money. So come on Kiwis, of all walks of life, be nice to each other, treat each other as you want to be treated, at home, at work and in business. Cut the negativity and dog eat dog depressive attitude and have a good life, and a laugh along the way

Same old claptrap expounded by National since Muldoon's day