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NB = notebook; DT = desktop PC
New IDC analysis says PC shipments will turn south this year - but also names the date of an expected turnaround.
Following a slow start to the year, IDC has revised its forecast downward.
The IT market tracker is now picking PC shipments in New Zealand will decline 3% in 2009 over 2008.
If it pans out, the fall will represent “the first noteworthy contraction since 1996,”IDC Associate Analyst Stefan Nordbruch tells NBR. “In 2001 [after the tech wreck], the market remained literally flat year-on-year.”
The recession and crashing Kiwi dollar (graphically illustrated by the pricing of Apple’s new Mac Mini) are fingered for the slow down.
Global PC shipments
IDC's headline picture:
2008: 295.2 million units
2009: 282 million units (est.)
2010: 300.9 million units (est.)
For the rest of the world, IDC is now picking the PC market to decline by 4.5% during 2009 to 282 million units - a more pessimistic figure than December, when the market researcher was picking a 3.8% contraction over the 295.2 million PCs shipped in 2008 (IDC has not, however, become as pessimistic as its rival, Garner, which sees an 11.2% contraction in PC shipments this year).
Desktop PC sales have trailed off sharply; the fall balanced in part by growing notebook sales. The world-wide shipment of laptops will total 148.6 million in 2009, a lift over the 142.6 million units shipped in 2008 - largely fuelled by super-hot sales in the emerging netbook category.
The better news: IDC says put-off upgrades this year will lead to renewed growth during 2010 as pent-up demand is unleashed and kicks off a new upgrade cycle that should see 300.9 million PCs shipped in 2009, and a whopping 50% growth worldwide between now and 2013.
PC makers will be hoping that the release of Windows 7, at an un-named date later this year, will be one of the factors fuelling the comeback.
State of the PC nation, further quarter 2008
Back on home turf, looking back Oct-Dec last year, Mr Nordbruch says there was a 2% rise in New Zealand PC shipments against the year-ago quarter, but a 7% decline against the preceding quarter.
Consumer desktops PC shipments were the prime offender, dropping 25% year-on-year to help drag the entire market below IDC’s expectation.
Shipments of desktop PCs aimed at the business market remained relatively steady, however, dipping just 1%.
The net result was that, overall, desktop sales fell 10% year-on-year and 9% quarter-on-quarter to 67,844 units.
Portable PC shipments, at 90,991 units, grew 15% year-on-year but fell 3% quarter-on-quarter.
Mr Nordbruch says a 1% increase in consumer laptop sales was offset by a 9% decline in business models.
IDC Q4 2008 charts: another HP sweep
IDC's tables stay very similar to Q3 2008, bar Lenovo - which has had a focus on low-power consumption, small footprint models - jumping to number 4 in the desktop chart, and Apple leap-frogging Dell in the portable standings.