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NZ POLITICS DAILY: Pressure on National

The pressure is on National.

Despite polling well above any other party it’s a government increasingly under siege, with issues on a number of fronts that threaten its current dominance and re-election.
 
Opinion polling out today suggests that the Government is on a knife edge – the next election could go either way. It can’t afford further bad news and to lose any more support. For the latest poll information and very useful analysis, see Tracy Watkins’ Trend good for Labour but there's a way to go. See also National no longer a sure winner – poll, and Vernon Small’s Minor parties hold sway in dead heat
 
The Skycity report is the latest vulnerability for National. If John Key still thinks the Audit Office has given him a ‘total vindication’ in the report, he really needs to read John Armstrong’s blistering critique: Banana republic stuff — but minus the bananas. The Audit Office itself is criticised by Gordon Campbell for ignoring political realities in pointing the finger at officials: ‘Get real, Audit Office. In the current public service climate, officials would have to be either very brave or foolhardy to fly in the face of the clear signals they were getting from the Beehive heavyweights, and they would also need to have alternative job options’ – see: On the Audit Office report on the SkyCity deal.
 
Nonetheless, Key appears determined to push the deal through quickly – see Dan Satherley’s Key rejects criticism of Sky City deal, and Adam Bennett and David Fisher’s Select treatment for SkyCity won't stop deal
 
There is still more to come on the Skycity issue – a debate about the more contentious trade-off of ‘pokies for convention centre’ which will require special legislation – see the Herald’s editorial, Social cost of casino deal left for public to judge
 
National is particularly vulnerable in Christchurch at the moment. As John Armstrong explains in a must-read column, the decision to backdown on some of the school closures is driven by ‘the need to buttress National's hold on the city’ – see: Partial backdown shows National has eye on election.  So was the U-turn a political success? Immediately after the announcement, University of Canterbury political scientist Bronwyn Hayward (@BMHayward) tweeted that she was so happy with the Government’s announcement she could hug Hekia Parata. Similarly, the Press editorial on the matter proclaimed, ‘The Government should be congratulated for at last properly consulting people about the plan and for taking heed of concerns’ – see: Deliver on promise
 
Yet National is still receiving a lot of bad publicity over the school closures. And Hekia Parata continues to be ‘the minister the public most love to hate’ – see for example: 71pc want Parata gone – survey. Much of the media has been baying for her to give an apology for the errors committed by herself, her Ministry and Novopay – see Tova O'Brien’s Sorry seems to be the hardest word
 
The Government is onto a popular winner with its announcement to introduce plain packaging for cigarettes (at some stage in the future, depending on what happens in Australia). Most parties have signed up for it in Parliament – with only Act and NZ First dissenting – see Newswire’s Plain packaging `a windfall for lawyers' – Peters. There’s strong support in the blogosphere too – see for example, No Right Turn: A good move, and David Farrar’s The plain packaging decision. But much of the credit is going, not to National, but to the Maori Party – see Patrick Gower’s Turia has absolutely smashed Big Tobacco
 
The asset sale issue is probably the one that National is most vulnerable on. Already this week National’s deadline for a court decision has passed – see TV3’s Court asserts authority on asset sales
 
And Matthew Hooton speculates on the reasoning behind a possible negative judgement for the Government – see: World exclusive: Top court's draft water judgment. The options for the Government if the decision goes against them are stark. Negotiations with iwi, further delays or cancelling the sales will all be politically humiliating. Legislating away the problem may be popular with National’s voter base but such a broken promise would explode the coalition deal with the Maori Party at a time when National is running low on little helpers in Parliament. An early election could be tempting – particularly if National can turn the issue into a vote on Treaty rights. An election that became a vote on the asset sales themselves would likely be suicidal. 
 
Of course, there are some indicators that National is doing quite well at the moment. A recent One News poll put the party on 49%, leading political editor Corin Dann to put forward an explanation for why the Government is doing so well: What a difference a summer can make
 
But if National is vulnerable and under pressure, then what of the state of the opposition? Labour is obviously pushing very hard on the Skycity issue. With deliberate thought to his wording, Labour leader David Shearer has proclaimed: ‘This has had John Key's fingerprints all over it and it was a shonky deal and John Key is donkey-deep in it’. On Twitter, David Fisher (@DFisherJourno) elaborated on the unusual language: ‘I'm told Labour's use of "donkey deep" is part of a subliminal "shonky" "donkey" "John Key" alliteration thing. Is that easier than policy?’
 
Labour also has its vulnerabilities at the moment. They start at the top – with Shearer, and blogger Pete George reports on his latest miscommunication in: Shearer: absolutely there’s room for MPs with homophobic views in Labour. The party also won’t be helped by the surprise resignation of Charles Chauvel yesterday – see Claire Trevett’s MP quits ahead of reshuffle. Various bloggers have outlined why this news is bad for Labour – see: David Farrar’s Chauvel resigns from Parliament, and No Right Turn’s Goodbye Charles. Cameron Slater is also running a series of blog post on the future prospects of the party’s deputy leader – see, for example, Grant Robertson, Prime Minister? – Delivering Heads
 
The bigger issue for Labour is its potential coalition partners. Senior Labour activist Greg Presland has blogged about the likely problems of working with Winston Peters: ‘How could a Labour Green Coalition include New Zealand First?  The simple answer is that it could not.  It would be inherently unstable, its policy goals would be shackled by the strange world view NZF has about issues such as climate change’ – see: Labour's Coalition Prospects
 
There is an increasing focus on the role of NZ First after the 2014 election – in particular, see David Farrar’s The nightmare for the next PM and Stuff’s Which NZ First wheel will fall off next? And if there’s any doubt about the likelihood of Peters getting his party over the line in 2014, his recent campaigning about Maori health funding is another example of his willingness and ability to exploit hot-button issues – see Brook Sabin’s Rongoa healers defend taxpayer funding. Also on the issue, see: Mathew Backhouse and Rebecca Quilliam’s Trust calls Peters' comments 'scaremongering' and the Dominion Post editorial, Monitoring needed for traditional healing
 
What about Mana? It is clearly embarrassing for Hone Harawira to have news such as David Fisher’s Harawira sons charged over attack on 12-year-old boy. David Farrar has responded to defend Harawira from being associated with the story – see: Nothing to do with Hone. Nonetheless, Fisher also reports, Harawira steps in to settle dispute
 
Other recent items of interest or importance:
 
* The blogosphere has been a bit stale lately, so its good news that Martyn Bradbury – far from retiring from blogging – is setting up a whole new blogging experiment – see his announcement: Announcing my new media project - TheDailyBlog.co.nz - read the other side of the story. But how long will it last? When Cameron Slater launched a similar venture (a collaborative blog labelled ‘Gotcha’) with Cathy Odgers a few years ago, the wheels started falling off immediately. Meanwhile, No Right Turn has just celebrated Ten years, and David Farrar is about to do likewise with Kiwiblog: A 10th birthday party
 
* Chris Trotter critiques the Living Wage campaign, suggesting that it shows just how weak New Zealand’s labour movement has become – see: Low-paid staff need solidarity. In contrast, Rodney Hide says the education unions are far too strong – see: Mad and bad unions hold us to ransom
 
* Just how much spin do politicians need? – see Bernard Orsman’s Mayor heavy on 'spin doctors'
 
* It’s not just iwi lawyers who earn big bucks from treaty cases. Tony Wall looks at who the government has paid for help since 2008 and there are a lot of ex-politicians on the list, including Paul Swain, Tukoroirangi Morgan, Jim Bolger, Rick Barker and Wira Gardiner – see: Treaty cases earn top dollar for 'top team'
 
* This had to be written, but would have been a tough task given the competition from Richard Prosser’s own pen – see Steve Braunias’ The Secret Diary of ... Richard Prosser
 
* Finally, ever since Jenny Shipley became the first New Zealand Prime Minister to attend the Hero Parade, in 1999, mainstream politicians have been frequent participants in the public celebrations of the LGBT community. This has made for some fantastic and interesting photo opportunities - some of which are reproduced in this blog post, NZ politicians at gay events – images
 

Bryce Edwards
NZPD Editor (bryce.edwards@nzpoliticsdaily.co.nz)

Today's content:

Skycity report
John Armstrong (Herald): Sky City report 'deeply disturbing'
Adam Bennett and David Fisher (Herald): Select treatment for SkyCity won't stop deal
Kate Chapman and Vernon Small (Stuff): SkyCity report slates Government ministers
Adam Bennett and David Fisher (Herald): SkyCity 'treated very differently' in tender
Adam Bennett (Herald): SkyCity cleared in convention probe
David Farrar (Kiwiblog): The Sky City reports
No Right Turn: "Vindicated"
 
Latest polling
Tracy Watkins and Andrea Vance (Stuff): National no longer a sure winner – poll
Vernon Small (Stuff): Minor parties hold sway in dead heat
Tracy Watkins and Andrea Vance (Stuff): Nats keep grip on rural voters - poll
David Farrar (Kiwiblog): Latest poll
Hamish Rutherford (Stuff): Support grows for National, Key – poll
David Farrar (Kiwiblog): Latest poll
 
Tobacco plain packaging
Isaac Davison (Herald): Plain smoke packets get go-ahead
Hamish Rutherford (Stuff): Tobacco plain packaging to be introduced
No Right Turn: A good move
David Farrar (Kiwiblog): The plain packaging decision
 
School closures
Andrea Vance, Charley Mann, and Caroline King (Stuff): 71pc want Parata gone – survey
Patrick Gower (TV3): Parata's apology 'gobbledygook'
Peter Cresswell (Not PC): Spot the contradiction
Anthony Robins (The Standard): Christchurch kids as political pawns
Kate Shuttleworth (Herald): Parata makes Novopay apology
Michael Cummings (Stuff): Parata's tenure hangs by a thread
David Farrar (Kiwiblog): Christchurch Schools details
Adam Bennett (Herald): Key stands by Parata after poll
Kate Shuttleworth (Herald): Principals: We were duped
 
Charles Chauvel
Claire Trevett (Herald): MP quits ahead of reshuffle
Claire Trevett (Herald): Labour MP Charles Chauvel resigns
Kate Chapman and Vernon Small (Stuff): Labour MP Charles Chauvel quits Parliament
David Farrar (Kiwiblog): Chauvel resigns from Parliament
No Right Turn: Goodbye Charles
Caleb Allison (NBR): Champagne Charlie's lavish legacy
 
Labour Party
The Standard: Reshuffle for unity
Pete George (Your NZ): Shearer – communication breakdown
David Farrar (Kiwiblog): Shearer on homophobes and Labour
 
NZ in Afghanistan
Kate Chapman and Vernon Small (Stuff): Keeping troops in Afghanistan 'a legacy commitment'
 
Maori politics
David Fisher (Herald): Harawira steps in to settle dispute
Vaimoana Tapaleao (Herald): Harawira quits anti-violence role
David Farrar (Kiwiblog): Nothing to do with Hone
Mathew Backhouse and Rebecca Quilliam (Herald): Trust calls Peters' comments 'scaremongering'
 
Inequality, poverty, employment
Chris Trotter (The Press): Low-paid staff need solidarity
Matt McCarten (Herald): Living wage a moral entitlement
The Standard: Species of Kiwi
Ben Clarke (The Standard): Inequality: even Treasury cares…
The Standard: Five Broken Things.
Darien Fenton (Red Alert): Wake up and listen
Denise Roche (Frogblog): You can’t live on a precarious wage.
Pete George (Your NZ): Five broken things at The Standard
Nicole Mathewson (Stuff): Prescription price rise hits vulnerable
Stevan Cowan (Against the current): Give that man a white flag to wave!
Karoline Tuckey (Stuff): Living wage 'impractical'
 
Privatisation
Kate Chapman and Hamish Rutherford (Stuff): Key defends $100m asset selldown cost
 
Richard Prosser and ‘Wogistan’
Gordon Campbell (Stuff): Taking free speech too far
Steve Braunias (Stuff): The Secret Diary of ... Richard Prosser
Sunday Star Times: Editorial – Prosser’s stupidity just the party line [not online]
Paul Little (Herald):Now, please let me explain
Simon Cunliffe (The Press): It's a joke that Prosser remains an MP
Kurt Bayer (Herald): Retreat from Wogistan
Ross Henderson (Taranaki Daily News): It's now make or break
Michele A’Court (The Press): Why I want to ban old, white men
John Armstrong (Herald): Prosser saved by the realpolitik bell
Scott Yorke (Imperitorfish): A special thank-you to Richard Prosser
The Standard: Walking the talk
David Farrar (Kiwiblog): The nightmare for the next PM
 
Education policy
Kate Shuttleworth (APNZ): Parata avoids Novopay apology
Andrea Vance (The Press): It's not all Hekia Parata's fault
Andrea Vance (Stuff): Pressure is on Parata
Adam Bennett (Herald): Parata should have gone, says poll
Catherine Woulfe (Listener): Education: Testing times
 
NZ First
 
Defense
 
Mainzeal Collapse
 
Privatisation
Hamish Rutherford (Stuff): Asset-sales costs reach $26m mark
 
Census
Ele Ludemann (Homepaddock): Time to Count Kiwis
Caleb Allison (NBR): Does the census matter any more?
 
Housing
Deborah Russell (Tellingitleft): Nice try, but it won’t work
Shane Gilchrist (ODT): Castles in the clouds
Hamish Rutherford (Stuff): Review of council development fees
 
Economy

 

Comments and questions
7

Look in the rear vision mirror Johnnie.

Hehehe. Shearer and Team Curran have to use pathetic pseudo mind control neuro linguistic programming methods to associate John Key with 'donkey' and 'shonky' (they copied shonky off Penny Bright) yet Shearer has the perfect name that is in and of itself a perfect word to associate its bearer with the reality!

Shearer and the left wish to fleece old people and the middle classes.

Shearer the Fabian ... most apt for a member of a society which literally uses the logo of a wolf in sheep's clothing yet underneath his false fleece is merely another envious and chippyex-UN apparatchik who loathes the notion that there are people who find his joke ideology hateful and can succeed without it.

If you are struggling for an answer it is really easy.

They hate because anybody who is successful does not need socialism. In order to maintain popularity, socialists have to keep people in the very conditions that they are committed to lifting them out of. At this they have been a complete success.

As far as their so-called objective of lifting people out of the lower echelons goes, they have been a complete failure.

Success for all, absolutely not (except for those on the politburo). Drag everybody down to the lowest common denominator, absolutely yes.

How Shearer the middle class hater-of-freedom who styles himself a 'man of the people' must loathe John Key, the working-class boy raised in a state house by a wonderful single mum who escaped socialism and the gulag of the mind.

Try harder.

If John Key lost an election it will not be because of what he has done.

It will be because of what he has not done.

Give John his knighthood and tell him to go.

There's simply too much PR space and vacuum that National are silent on that the leftie media then go running to the likes of either the Greens or the unions for "informed and credible" populist sound bites... Without any balance.

Besides here on NBR and Whale Oil Beef Hooked, the rest are plainly left leaning and only slant the angles the unions want regurgitated. Case in point is TV3's unbalanced articles on the Christchurch school closures. Every night we hear how "traumatic" it is for intermediate school kids to have to move to another school. Not because the earthquakes totally munted their school, but because of National/Parata not consulting/informing/including the community enough. The fact intermediate school kids move school after a few years anyway is never mentioned, nor the $1 billion NZ Inc is investing into the Chch education infrastructure. Nor are the 230 or so school closures by Mallard under Labour at a time of no earthquakes and a $20 billion surplus... Yet these inconvenient truths don't help the propaganda spouted by the unions and Greens. The leftie MSM are so slanted to the left, they don't even bother with moderate Labour any more. They go straight to the unions and the Greens for their inflammatory rhetoric sound bites.

The PR vacuum only exists because National have been too quiet for too long. Admittedly, focusing energy and time on the real issues - however, there's an adage about spouting enough bullsh*t for long enough to many people and eventually some will start to believe it.

Please make no mistake, National. It is a propaganda war being waged against you in any way possible. It's high time you started comparing performance and achievements, presenting facts to the public to drown out the puffery and populist sound bites the MSM runs to the unions for.

Agree wholeheartedly.

The biggest issue that's pricked National's bubble (not mentioned in the article) is the housing crisis in Auckland. Labour's policy was popular with 70% of people nationwide. National has made noises on the issue - but done absolutely nothing. If they keep doing nothing, and leave this territory for Labour and the Greens to take they will lose the next election - gauranteed!