NZ POLITICS DAILY: World Cup Final result will impact election

Influencing your vote - whether your consciously aware of it or not

After much hype and expectation, the Rugby World Cup final is upon us. The question of its political impact is once again being asked.

Two Victoria University of Wellington academics have a lot to say about this – see: Peter A Thompson and Marc Wilson’s Winning the World Cup – does it make a difference? and the TVNZ items Expert believes RWC result could impact election and The Cup and the media (3:51). Audrey Young has also written a useful backgrounder here: Rugby World Cup unlikely to affect election

There should be no doubt the result of Sunday night’s game will have some impact on the election campaign.
 
Obviously people don’t consciously make deliberate voting decisions on the basis of sporting wins or losses, but those sporting results do have an influence on the emotional mood of the electoral, which definitely then impacts on voting behaviour to some degree.
 
And a win will definitely produce an element of elation in the national mood/psyche over the next few months. This has to be good for the incumbents. Of course, those that have already firmly decided to vote for parties other than National are not likely to change their vote as a result of the win. But those undecided voters will be slightly more easily won over by the National government’s attempts to convince the electorate things are getting better, and that therefore no change is needed.
 
Also, the tournament has been a big success – apart from the opening night – and so this has also left the country slightly buoyant. We’ve had a national party so-to-speak, and people have enjoyed the festivities and games and this probably makes people conducive to retaining the status quo in government.
 
However, the impact of a win could be diluted by other factors. The Rena oil spill still has a long way to go before its looking like it can be safely resolved. And similarly, the Treasury’s PREFU statement comes out this coming week, which is basically the Treasury opening the government’s books prior to the election to show just how good or bad things are.
 
So if the PREFU and the Rena spill are also pointing towards negative futures, then the World Cup win will be slightly overshadowed – or at least the gloss is less shiny, and that opens up Labour’s chances of making an impact with their argument that the government hasn’t improved people’s lives in New Zealand. 
 
And a loss on Sunday would definitely produce an element of depression in the national mood, and this has to be bad for the incumbents.
 
Again, those that have already firmly decided to vote for National are not likely to change their vote as a result of the loss.
 
But those undecided voters – or even the many ‘soft National supporters’ will be slightly less easily won over by the National government’s attempts to convince the electorate things are getting better, and that therefore no change is needed.
 
And when people are in negative moods are they are more receptive to negative election advertising, and that will advantage the Labour Party, which is campaigning on the basis of the need to change the government. And, of course, the impact of the loss could be compounded by those other factors such as Rena and the PREFU. 
 
If the All Blacks lose, Labour might also be tempted to make something of the fact that the underdog has won, and they’ll want to draw the parallel with the fact that so many commentators and voters have written off Labour as being destined to lose the election. But they’ll have to be very careful in drawing such parallels, which in the current sensitive emotional mood could go down very well, and could be seen as anti-patriotic. 
 
For another political take on the Rugby World Cup, see Simon Collins’ article, Deep divisions over $1000 for a Rugby World Cup game as poverty grows
 
Act in peril in Epsom
The big political story of today is about the Act Party’s precarious existence due to its reliance on its so-called dirty deal with National over Epsom. Today’s NBR carries some important poll results and analysis in the following stories: Hide wins similar support as Banks. Key will decide ACT's Parliamentary futureKey too fuzzy on Epsom, and Voters punish ACT. Act’s situation is also dealt with very well by TV3’s Lloyd Burr – see Key will not vote for Banks in Epsom and Patrick Gower: Key and ACT's Epsom deal is just so filthy. In the ODT, Dene Mackenzie also asks: Brash staging Act finale?
 
Other important items today include: John Hartevelt’s A campaign subplot, Danya Levy’s Labour promises to protect Kiwi farms, John Pagani’s National's empty words, David Farrar’s Work and wages policy is no surprise, Derek Cheng’s Labour and unions sing same tune on contracts, Bill Rosenberg’s New Zealanders get low wages, Chris Trotter’s Resistance is not futile, and Ben Heather’s Red-zone challenge proposal scrapped.
 
There are also some very interesting items about the issue of ‘gay marriage’ coming on to the election agenda – see: Pro-gay marriage protest hits ParliamentCalls for gay marriage to be on election agenda and Deborah Russell’s Gay, straight, bi - marriage should be for all
 
 
Bryce Edwards, NZPD Editor (bryce.edwards@otago.ac.nz

Today’s content:
 
Act Party and Epsom
Rob Hosking (NBR): Key too fuzzy on Epsom
Rob Hosking (NBR): Voters punish ACT
Andrea Vance (Stuff): John Banks trails in Epsom
Andrea Vance (Stuff): ACT can't bank on Key's support
Ian Llewellyn (electionresults): Key Is The Key To ACT’s Future
Dene Mackenzie (ODT): Brash staging Act finale?
 
Rugby World Cup
Natasha Burling (Newstalk ZB): RWC bodes well for National in election
Peter A Thompson and Marc Wilson (VUW): Winning the World Cup – does it make a difference?
Neil Sands (MSM): NZ awaits Rugby World Cup fate
 
Election campaign
John Hartevelt (Stuff): A campaign subplot
Patrick O'Sullivan (Hawke's Bay Today): Labour unveils agriculture policy
John Pagani (Stuff): National's empty words
Whaleoil: Treating? Bribery?
 
Industrial policy
Bill Rosenberg (Dom Post): New Zealanders get low wages
 
Occupation protests
Chris Trotter (Taranaki Daily News): Resistance is not futile
Deborah Hill Cone (Business Herald): All together now: it just isn't fair
Cactus Kate: The 1% Fallacy
 
Rena oil spill
Hayley Hannan and Hayden Donnell (NZH): Rena spill: 'racist' blame on Filipino crew
Michael Forbes (Stuff): Rena: Filipino call to arms
 
Canterbury earthquakes
 
Economy
Nadine Chalmers-Ross (TVNZ): A savings lesson
Grant Duncan (Policy matters): The return of class politics?
Scot Mackay (Southland Times): English: Govt won't buy smelter
Eloise Gibson (Stuff): Govt KiwiSaver plan called inadequate
Barry Soper (Newstalk ZB): Political Report for October 21
Andrea Fox (Stuff): May Wang on corruption charges
 
Gay marriage
Amelia Romanos and Sharon Lundy (APNZ): Calls for gay marriage to be on election agenda
 
Other
Matthew Hooton (NBR): NZ has a new flag (Not currently online)
Geoff Steedman (Taranaki Daily News): 'Green' jobs, cleantech part of solution

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7 Comments & Questions

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if an election is decided by astupid bloody game than we deserve high unemployment,huge borrowings etc.long live france

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If any numb nut decides this countries future on tomorrow nights game it just shows we certainly have an eductation issue. Its up there with Hariwera suggesting he join the red necks in the BOP in hanging the Master of the Rena.

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Have to agree with the brainztrust and Te Wiremu.

The last government was thrown out of power but tragically an equally if not more damaging one was put in its place.

The people doing the actual hands on work –those running small businesses, the working and middle class, the professions, mothers and fathers, are only too aware that they are up against deal-making political parties. And that most politicians are nothing more than ‘persuasive talkers’ who have hijacked the democracy of New Zealand.

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...and sold the dwindling sentiments of democracy out to the UN.

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All Kwis are victors....with the CUP!

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i was fat,bald ,old and ugly before the cup and this has not changed despite us winning the cup. the only victors in this cup have been the banks brewerys ,media ,hotel chains and supermarkets the majority of the forementioned all owned overseas.

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National it is... I'm sticking with winners!! Labour have been worse than the French in the run up to Nov26 they are deserving of our contempt

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