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Partial post-Hager poll shows National holding steady

The first poll to test voter reaction to last week's publication of the "Dirty Politics" book shows the government maintaining its lead over the Labour Party, rising 2 percentage points to 48 percent, while Labour has dropped 2.5 percent to 27.5 percent.

However, the Roy Morgan New Zealand poll cannot be said to give a full picture of reaction to the book, by political journalist and activist Nicky Hager, because its sample polled 809 people between Aug 4 and 17, whereas the book was only published late on Aug 13. (See graph below)

The poll does show a rebound in sentiment about whether the country is on the "right" or "wrong" track, a long-standing political bellwether. Positive sentiment fell sharply to 60 percent in the poll taken over the second half of July, but rose to 63.5 percent in the latest poll.

Political party support again suggests that New Zealand First will be in a "king-maker" position after the election, but only to install a National Party administration. NZ First is shown polling at 6.5 percent, which would entitle the party led by Winston Peters to eight parliamentary seats.

At 48 percent support, National would be entitled to 58 seats, three short of a majority in the 120 seat Parliament. While it might hope to cobble together a majority, that would depend on all three of its current support partners - the Act, United Future and Maori parties - each winning an electorate seat, as none is polling high enough to return to Parliament on the basis of the party vote alone.

Under New Zealand's two-vote MMP voting system, parties enter Parliament in proportion to their share of the so-called "party" vote, but only if they win 5 percent or more of that vote. The only way to enter Parliament if the party vote is below 5 percent is if the party wins one of the smaller number of geographical electorate seats that are also up for grabs.

On that basis, National might need to look to NZ First to secure its majority for a third term in office.

The combined 39 percent vote for Labour and its likely coalition partner, the Green party, whose support slipped 0.5 percent in the latest Roy Morgan poll to 11 percent, would leave the centre-left 13 seats short of a majority. Even if the Internet-Mana party, polling steady at 2.5 percent support, were to enter Parliament with three seats, NZ First's additional eight would leave a four way tie-up with Labour and the Greens two seats short of a majority.

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Comments and questions

Where oh where is "The Doctor" now?

Crying into his mid-afternoon anaesthetic probably.

Here I am

Amazing that you all reappear when things start to appear bright - I say appear because it ain't over yet and as the polls were amidst the Hagar releases with more daily. You are all very fair weathered supporters of the right - quite blinded to the right really

I am not crying at all - far from it

I see the rot now setting in for National - the worm has turned

Another interesting tool that has been released by Government owned TVNZ id their online Compass survey which asks normal generic questions and matches that to the policy of the various parties - except the loony Conservatives who think they are clever but are actually the opposite in this respect.

The survey is unbiased and derives from overseas - Canada I think.
Over 180,000 voters have registered in the past 3 days and I believe it will be adverse to National and Act and take away the inbred political belief of the right - born and bred Remueraites and Karoriites - inbred being the operative word.

Everyone should try it - it naturally swings voters more to the left based on the questions asked

I wonder how many will be influenced from those 180,000 who when completing the survey find that actually they are more aligned to the left when they honestly answer these questions - and national is only looking after the 20% greedy on the right

"The survey is unbiased and derives from overseas"

" naturally swings votes more to the left based on the questions asked."

Right okay, really unbiased then...

Yes it is unbiased

Do your own research - its too hard to explain.
Maybe do the survey like many others have

It must be unbiased anyway as the Government owned TV station approved it and it has been used overseas as an unbiased survey tht helps voters match their vote to their ideals.

Hardly a surprise here. Regardless of the Hagar book, the left, and its associated rabble of wannabes simply can't provide a decent alternative.

I understand it a bit differently. Everyone already knows about the character of these people, but those who vote for the right don't care, so it doesn't influence them. They don't understand policy, or know the track records of the parties involved. Their support of National is more about their personal identity than anything the parties do.
Also, at the moment National looks like the winning side and some people like that. The shallowness is kind of embarrassing for the country, though.

i have no issue with what you say and i agree on the way in which Nat voters work. I was just pointing out that with a book such as the one from Hagar, that perhaps if the left and associated partners were more aligned and had a decent plan they may have been able to capitalise on the current predicament the Nats now face

It's the internet/mana mob that might get Labour in, although any increase in their numbers is likely to come from Labour, Greens or NZ First, so maybe not. Then again Cunliffe won't deal with internet/mana, because he said he wouldn't. Winston is an unknown quantity but I suspect Labour/Greens, Internet -mana will offer the biggest baubles, and it's baubles that matter to Winston First. Oh how easy it will be if National can get their with just two extra electoral seats; Oharia Belmont and Epsom. Don't you just love MMP!

"Cunliffe won't deal with internet/mana, because he said he wouldn't" - Tui Billboard!!

Any comment on a certain pm's willingness to work with Winston? He ruled him out and now.......

Nobody would work with Winston if there's a choice, but sometimes there just aint!

Actually, despite all his "foibles" Winnie's starting to look pretty attractive compared with the potential participants in the loony left coalition!

Well I suppose there is one bright spot to all this current nonsense. While the easily distracted MSM are beating Nicky Hager's dirty politics drum with all the dedication and commitment of an obsessive-compulsive checking the locks, it is completely depriving Labour, and the Greens too for that matter, of any oxygen at all regarding their policies. What was the last lot of Labour-Green policies that garnered any attention and got people talking that you can think of since this story broke? All anybody is talking about is National (and that includes Labour and the Greens! lol), they are the only game in town and all that seems to be doing is pushing them up in the polls.

For anyone terrified of the loony left in power, but a bit tired of Nat arrogance, there is only one choice - Act!

Well we are so close to the election, I think I will just wait for the final poll as there is no real basis to make any factual assessment.

Hagars Dirty politics will have some impact, but reading commentary I see more people entrenched in their views than lots of people stating that they have changed their views. So in my opinion it will come down to issues other than this book that will finalise the result.

The polls are rigged, don't believe a word of it! National's perversion of democracy doesn't stop at attack politics, smears and orchestrates with their right wing media pollster cronies to artificially distort public opinion and over-rate National's chances as they did in 2011. Simon Lusk said reducing voter turnout numbers is a good thing for National.

Has anyone else noticed The Herald and Stuff have not mentioned today's poll result. It does not suit their left agenda I presume. Would be different if National was down. Not the news they want to hear.

Keys zeppelin just caught fire, and he is going down.

His ego and arrogance got the better of him, when he underestimated the power of the internet.

There's only so much spin doctors can hide for so long. Eventually the zeppelin runs out of helium.. Should have kept his feet on the ground.

If half of what is portrayed by the emails Hagar exposed, and his source continues to expose are true, lets hope justice prevails. And home detention simply wouldn't cut it sorry.

I've never heard a good argument for voting for National. They seem to hurt a lot of people in order to benefit a few, their ministers don't seem very clever or honest, and Labour's track record on the economy in recent years is much better. I'm not at all happy that they've taken on an average of $29 million debt every single day during their two terms, while giving obviously unaffordable tax cuts to people who don't need it. They don't appear to be offering anything innovative, either. What's the attraction for thinking people?

I agree anon. I can only conclude that Key is like the pied piper and Nat voters like the rats, following blindly. Sadly though, they are not being led out of town!

Voting National helps keep Labour and their associates out. Surely that should be reason enough to vote National.

So true. Anything the Nats can do, those lefties can do so much worse.

A vote for Labour is a vote for Kim Dotcom, so that is another reason to avoid the left.

With all the current kerfuffle you have to question the accuracy/honesty of the polls.