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Is Pita Sharples on the way out?

Maori Party co-leader Pita Sharples could be ousted from Parliament at this year’s election, users of prediction website iPredict have forecast.

According to this week's iPredict snapshot, Labour Party MP Shane Jones is now forecast to beat Dr Sharples for the Tamaki-Makaurau seat, with a 55% probability of winning compared to 42% for the incumbent.

As a result, the Maori Party is expected to hold just two seats, the same number of MPs as the Mana Party is forecast to secure.

Meanwhile the Green Party is now expected to have 10 MPs after the election, up from nine last week, with a forecast 7.6% share of the party vote (up from 7.2% last week).

National is forecast to get 45.0% (steady) giving it 57 MPs out of the 120-seat Parliament, while Labour is forecast to get 32.7% (up from 32.3% last week), giving it 41 MPs.

Act is forecast to get 4.9% (up from 4.2% last week) and six MPs, while UnitedFuture (1.3%, down from 2.3% last week) is predicted to get two MPs.

New Zealand First is forecast to get 4.7% of the party vote, leaving it without any MPs as it is not predicted to win any seats. 

More by Niko Kloeten

Comments and questions

The shame would be to see Pita Sharples gone. Pit's style of inclusive politics is something Shane Jones will struggle to follow. I like many Pakeha wish Maori to vote with their head and not to listen to the empty promises given by labour and Shane Jones.

I agree

I agree

Need both Pita [inclusive] & Shane [jobs etc].

Green Party now expected to have 10 MPs. Heaven help us! Ready to pack your bags.
BRING BACK DEMOCRACY - STV only way to go.
Get RID of MMP

Pita Sharples would be a big loss to parliament.

Shane Jones' actions are petty, vindictive party politics in action. Don't tell me Maori are going to abandon their own party and leaders and swallow Mana and Labour BS.


what next - larry flynt for president....

I imagine Shane Jones would get on very well with Larry Flynt

Pita has the real mana, that others could only dream off

I think the result is more representative of the iPredict constituency than the local reality. While I have great admiration for Shane I suspect that in the end Pita Sharples will be returned with a very narrow majority.

Maori Party did themselves a dis-service in the Te Tai Tokerau by-election - wrong person elected. Lost a lot of voter's.

Pita, stop trying to ruin the country.

You have drops of pakeha in you too. If it werent for pakeha, you would be living like a monkey, eating with your hands, hunting with your stone tools, cooking in the ground, and sticking out your tongue at anything that moves.

Go on, sulk.

Nice, people like you need to be ignored. Insulting someone based on race is the lowest of the low.

Good riddance to Dr Peter Sharples. A dangerous separatist. Roll on the election and pray that the Nats get clear majority and the minor lunatic parties and their irrational members are buried.

You have drops of partake in you too. If it weren't for partake, you would be living like a monkey, eating with your hands, hunting with your stone tools, cooking in the ground, and sticking out your tongue at anything that moves.

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All MP's in parliament as a result of the racist policy of reserving seats according to race should be gone. As nice as he seems on the surface, Sharples & his ilk that condone the concept of racial privilege in our parliament are nothing but red necked racists. He knows that equal opportunity & equal outcome are two very different things, but intentionally substitutes one for the other to maintain institutionalised racism in our country. My hope is our government grow enough balls to remove this blight on our country's democracy, a country that fought so hard to remove similar double standards in apartheid South Africa. Good riddance to racist pigs.

Graham Atkinson - it is precisely because it is iPredict's constituents sharing what they know that gives iPredict more credibility than polls

iPredict's prediction is not an opinion voiced by its constituency based on how they would vote today, but the accumulated 'wisdom of the crowds' of those 'in the know' who stand to make money from trading on their inside information. So if someone has information that it is more likely that Shane Jones will win than the current price (less than $1) indicates, they 'buy low' and win a payout of $1 later on if he does win. + Hence, predictions markets are generally more accurate than polls. More importantly, they answer the question 'who do you think will win in November' nbased on information that is likely only to be known to insiders (e.g. policies yet to be announced), which is really far more more meaningful than the poll question asked of 'ordinary' (uninformed) voters' 'who would you vote for today' - so thus fails to take account of factors that could see the polls changing substantially between now and November