Potholes ahead, says ANZ Truckometer
"With what we're seeing happening in the printing industry, it's looking more like craters..."
Featured comment“Potential pothole ahead, bumpy, tepid economic growth.”
This is the scenario for the New Zealand economy, according to the latest two ANZ Truckometer indices.
The Heavy Traffic Index indicates negative GDP growth for the first quarter of 2013.
The Light Traffic Index, combined with ever-worsening drought conditions, suggests a risk that a negative first quarter may be more than a one-off event.
“The ANZ Light Traffic Index has a six-month lead to GDP growth. It fell 1.6% in February, unwinding its January rise," say ANZ economists.
“Taking the lead into account, this indicator is positive about GDP growth in the fourth quarter, and negative about the first quarter, more positive about the second quarter, but starting to send weaker signals about the third quarter.
“Hence, we continue to talk about a stop-start economy where surges in momentum are followed by slumps, a characterisation driven by the clashing of structural and cyclical forces,” they say.
“In annual growth terms, the message is equally subdued, suggesting growth heading towards zero."
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Comments and questions5
With what we're seeing happening in the printing industry, it's looking more like craters...
Few extra factors in play on print industry beyond just the economy ... fundamental consumer shift towards online = bye bye
Craters ... you are lucky you have somewhere to hide!
Try the timber industry. Open fields and we are all shooting each other. This won't end well unless bank lending increases and we all just buy each other's houses for more :)
I thought manufacturing is doing well ... aren't they keeping the printers busy?
Yes a lot of printers, I know, are busy ... selling their houses.
This will be fixed once the FMA and SFO get their act together and clean out the past finance company disasters like Hanover Finance and Strategic Finance etc. Then and only then will robust second tier financiers appear and be in a position to fund growth.
Investors will come back to the market and support well run financial institutions who as long as they stick to their knitting ( business and asset financing ) will prove to be fruitful for borrowers and investors.
Hopefully the FMA and SFO complete their protracted investigations soon!!!