Property prices drive Auckland consumer confidence

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The hot property market is making consumers more confident in Auckland and they expect house prices to rise more in the next two years.

That is according to the ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ consumer confidence survey for January, which otherwise shows a mixed picture nationally.

The national headline consumer confidence index firmed to 118.3 in January from 114.7 in December but when seasonally adjusted eased to 112 from 115.

In Auckland, the index rose six points to a 2.5-year high.

"You will need to look no further than the sharp lift in the property prices for the reason of renewed enthusiasm in Auckland, though we note house price expectations in New Zealand's largest city were unchanged," Cameron Bagrie, chief economist at ANZ, says.

Still, house price expectations are the highest in Auckland, with a 4.4 percent lift in prices expected in the next two years.

Confidence levels in Wellington and Canterbury were weaker in January.

Nationally, the future conditions index was unchanged at 119 and the current conditions index lifted eight points to 117. The current conditions index in Auckland was at a five-year high.

A net 38 percent of respondents believed it was a good time to buy a major household item, the highest reading since 2007.


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House prices flat in Auckland for next two years if we are lucky. Significant downside is now possible with the recent boom, flat income growth, an awakening rental market, more supply coming on and economic headwinds.

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Underweight on property, ah? I'd buy now if I were you.

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Forget it. Your economics have failed not just here but around the world. Printing money for the sake of it has destroyed the world's economy. You're just boys whistling in the graveyard pretending not to be scared.

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Anyone who wants to pay $1.2 million for an average house is an idiot. That's the real price by the time you pay back your slave master, the bank.

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Confidence comes from trickle down from inflated market prices by low intrest rates and Kiwisaver access driving demand. People who have owned homes for 10-plus years are cashing in. Rather than creating a bubble, lack of demand actually creates a cashed-up economy of people 40+, who spend more because they have it. New cars, new TVs and new girlfriends for those approaching middle age. Hoorah.
Low inflation rates ensure the cost of living stays low for the lower income earners.
While not particulary nice, it is a sensible way to get re-elected in a couple of years. Bring on the nouevau riche.

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A friend told me yesterday that his daughter paid $850k for house in Auckland that you could buy in Palmerston North for $250k on the same salary that is paid in Auckland and Palmerston North - how dumb is that?

Do nothing as it will self-correct. A fool and their money are soon parted. Await the collapse and the tears.

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