Governor quashes hopes for a rate cut, sending kiwi higher
BUSINESSDESK: The New Zealand dollar climbed more than half a US cent after Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler gave no indication he is leaning towards lower interest rates in his debut review of monetary policy.
Mr Wheeler kept the official cash rate on hold at 2.5%, saying the level was appropriate "for now" and citing tepid inflation as something he's keeping close tabs on.
The kiwi climbed to 82 US cents from 81.38 cents immediately before the release after markets betting on a rate cut or looking for a bias towards looser monetary policy were disappointed.
"They didn't ease and more importantly, there was absolutely no indication in that statement they were contemplating it," says Stephen Toplis, head of research at Bank of New Zealand in Wellington. "Those people taking a punt on a move in that direction have been disappointed."
Economists and markets were divided on how Mr Wheeler would approach monetary policy, with a Reuters survey of economists unanimously predicting no change, and traders giving a rate cut a 30% chance.
Mr Wheeler reintroduced the caveat that the record-low setting for the benchmark rate remains appropriate "for now" and brought inflation back in focus after the annual pace of 0.8% in the September quarter was below the bank's target band of between 1% and 3%.
The bank expects inflation will head back toward the middle of the target range, he says.
"We will continue to monitor inflation indicators, such as pricing intention and inflation expectation data, closely over coming months," Mr Wheeler says in a statement. "For now it remains appropriate for the OCR to be held at 2.5%."
Mr Toplis says it is too early for Mr Wheeler to show his hand, having only been in the job for a matter of weeks, and that a "steady as she goes" approach was the right way to go given the slowly improving global economy and domestic recovery.
"A number of data items opened the door for the central bank to ease if it wishes to – that they aren't considering that at this stage is entirely appropriate."
Mr Wheeler is a former executive at the World Bank and most recently ran a consultancy in the US. He has signed a policy targets agreement with Finance Minister Bill English that is broadly unchanged from the one inked by predecessor Alan Bollard.
Still, he said at the time it was signed last month that tweaks to the PTA gives the bank more authority "to lean against the build-up of financial imbalances" in the economy.
New Zealand is going through "modest" economic growth, with the Canterbury rebuild boosting the construction sector and housing market activity increasing as expected, he says.
Those gains were being hampered by fiscal consolidation and a strong New Zealand dollar "undermining export earnings and encouraging substitution toward imported goods and services".
Mr Wheeler was more upbeat about the global outlook, saying the risks appear "more balanced" on improving market sentiment. Still, the global economy remains fragile with "further recovery dependent on policy implementation".
Last month, the central bank trimmed its forecast for the 90-day bank bill rate, often seen as a proxy for the OCR, with the rate on hold until December next year and rising to 3.3% in March 2015. It had previously seen the rate unchanged at 2.7% until June 2013, before peaking at 3.4% in March 2015.
The OCR has been on hold for a record 13 meetings since Dr Bollard sliced half a percentage point in March last year as insurance against the impacts of the Canterbury earthquake that levelled the country's second-biggest city.





















Comments and questions10
Great, now we get a central banker hawk talking up the kiwi dollar just when the economy was starting to get up off the floor.
Bye, bye exporters.
Fore sure, fore sure!!
It's good bye dairy farmers, it's good bye exporting manufactures, it's
it's hello to foreigners owning our farm land, turning our wealth creating industries
its bye bye to any body with get up and go,
gone to Auzzie, leaving a land of dependents on the state for survival
hello hello, is that not what Greece looks like!!
We are now heading for interest rate parity with Australia? How could that have happened? Is the new Gov'nor convinced NZ is the NEW SAFE HAVEN. The carry trade will catch on quick, and dollar parity with Australia [ and by default $US also ] will follow next year. Wow!!
Graeme Wheeler, you're a muppet.
There is no way in the world to justify a lowerer interest rate while the Auckland housing market is on fire.
A sensible man at the helm at last?
Perhaps he recognises that a rate cut would be short-term thinking and what the country needs is a rate that will attract savings so that we can get our economy up off the floor by building savings and thus domestic investment capital.
Let's hope our politicians resist the temptation to meddle,as has happened so often in the past.
liberte
What do you mean domestic investment capital? With exchange rates like they are, it's all flowing offshore boosting the likes of Facebook share values!
Is this bloke intent on destroying New Zealand's export sector completely?
well done Mr Governor . If I was you [which I am not ] I would lift the amount of deposit property punters need to coff up. 30 % deposit would be a good starting point ,I would suggest if you want to cultivate a savings culture.
Unbelievable - we finally get rid of Bollard and we get this dork - another career public sector bludger who has never done a day's real work in his life. What planet are these Wellington clowns on? Yours another frustrated exporter...