Residential sales resume plunge after slight recovery
Latest residential sales figures make for the end of a roller coaster ride for Real Estate Institute president Murray Cleland's two years at the helm.
He oversaw the height of the market in early 2007 and is now witnessing its post-boom plunge.
He steps down in two weeks and says he'll spend a bit of time on his boat. He will be replaced by Mike Elford of Edinburgh Realty in Dunedin.
The latest figures show that the July resurgence was nothing more than a "dead cat bounce" with the August figures showing a significant drop in sales numbers and in the national median price)."It looks as if the leading economists are on the money with predictions of a 5 per cent to 10 per cent decrease in the market," Mr Cleland said.
He acknowledged it was good news for first home buyers. August sales were down to 4220, the lowest in 26 years since the Institute began compiling figures.
The national median selling price was down from $340,000 in June and July to $330,000 for August. This represents a 5.71 per cent drop on the August 2007 national median price of $350,000.
Mr Cleland said he believed the figures would reinforce expectations that the Reserve Bank will reduce the official cash rate and this will take the pressure off mortgage costs.
"There's a lot riding on a Spring upturn. I can only assume that the long spell of wet weather has had a big effect. But two things in this month's figures give a little hope, the first being a drop in days to sell nationally from 58 in July to 55 days in August, which suggests that market liquidity might be improving a little, despite the painfully low sales figures for the month." He attributed this to less selling pressure and slightly more confidence among buyers.
The second factor, Mr Cleland said, was the performance of Auckland, traditionally the leading barometer of the market. The Auckland median improved from $421,000 to $423,500 in August and days to sell fell from 52 days to 48 days.
The Auckland median price recovery was significant, according to Mr Cleland because it was driven by increased medians across Auckland, with North Shore up from $483,500 to $508,000 and Waitakere City up from $355,000 to $374,000.
Auckland City itself was up from $443,000 to $467,500 which in turn drove the Metropolitan Auckland median up from $425,000 to $430,000.
Auckland was one of three out of 12 regions to record increased medians in the latest statistics, along with Wellington, up from $371,000 to $375,000 and Southland, up from $172,000 to $190,000, with a number of smaller regions the hardest hit.
Mr Cleland warned that low sales figures can skew median price statistics. For example, the Gisborne median price fell to $212,000 in July on 31 sales.
It appeared to recover dramatically to $290,000 in August on just 29 sales which is well down on the sales volume of August 2005 when 72 sales took place.
Around the regions, Northland experienced a fall in its median price, having recovered to $315,000 in July; it was back down to $285,000, while Waikato and Bay of Plenty was similarly affected, down from $325,000 to $316,000. Hawkes Bay was down from $282,000 to $265,000 after big falls in the Hastings and Napier medians, while Manawatu and Wanganui was down from $233,750 to $231,000.
The Nelson and Marlborough median eased from $330,000 in July to $328,000 in August, while Canterbury Westland was down from $300,000 to $290,000.
The volatile Central Otago Lakes (Queenstown and Wanaka) was down on low turnover from $565,000 to $465,000, reflecting the speculative nature of the market and high number of mortgagee sales (The National Business Review reported the collapse of this market in February).
Otago was down from $240,000 to $230,000. In percentage annual decease terms, Northland is now 10.23 per cent lower than a year ago and Auckland is down by 5.88 per cent.
Waikato and Bay of Plenty is down 2.76 per cent year on year, while Hawkes Bay is down 3.63 per cent. Manawatu and Wanganui remain in positive territory, up 7.44 per cent, but Taranaki is following the national trend, down 2.91 per cent.
Wellington is down 1.58 per cent, Nelson Marlborough is down 1.79 per cent but Canterbury and Westland shows one of the larger falls, down 6.45 per cent over the year. Central Otago Lakes is off 2 per cent and Otago down 3.36 per cent while Southland is still up 7.95 per cent.
The price band trends show that the majority of sales are under $400,000 at 2746 out of the total of 4220. Sales of properties worth $400,000 to $599,999 are down to 950 compared with 1549 a year ago, and sales of properties worth $600,000 to $999,999 are down from 736 in August 2007 to 421 in the latest period. Sales over $1 million are almost half of those a year ago down from 202 in August 2007 to 103 in the latest period.
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Comments and questions6
Mr Cleland reports that "days to sell fell from 55 to 58" and that is a positive sign. That may well be a positive sign but the statistic is not what it seems.
Let me explain.....
If a home owner lists their home exclusively (as many do) with one agent for 60 days, assume the house does not sell. The homeowner now lists with another agent for a further 30 days and again it doesn't sell. In frustration the homeowner now open lists with 3 agents and it sells after 50 days further.
The statistics reported will show that the House Sold after 50 days. Everyone in the market is joyous, it only took 50 days to sell. When in fact the house was on the market for 140 days before it sold.
I invite the Real Estate Institute or anyone else who knows for certain how the statistic is created to add their comment.
If my view is correct, the true days to sell could be as high as a year, and it is not until the clearance rate starts to drop that demand will be such to arrest the slide in property prices.
Chris, it is even less reliable than you mention. Consider this: that statistic is only for houses that actually sold. So other houses could be on the market longer, but do not become part of the statistic until they actually sell.
It would be really useful if the real estate market was as transparent as the share market: corrections might be swift and brutal, but they would happen and then everyone could get on with their lives.
Speaking as a Real Estate salesman.
If you put the right price on a house, even in this market it will sell very quickly. Maybe 1 week or two.
Extended days to sell figures equate to vendors not putting todays prices on their property. That is, listing their homes at last years prices.
If a vendor really wants to sell in this current market he has to come to terms with the reality of the market. It often takes vendors a long time to allow the price of their property to drop to the required level where there is buyer interest.
Sometimes vendors end up accepting far less than they would have originally achieved after a long period on the market.
In a rising market the market value catches up with an over priced property.
In this current falling market the market value gets further and further away.
In the recent past properties bought today could be onsold in a year or two at a big capital gain, this mitigated the risks of buying a property that you could not afford to pay for out of your own income or the rental income that someone else was prepared to pay.
Now it is dawning on many people that property may not go up as fast as previously expected, there is an oversupply of some types of rental property creating downward pressure on prices, and banks (lenders) becoming risk averse. If the purchaser doesn't have enough equity in the property, whether it be for rental or to a lesser degree for ones own home + plus a proven income to support the outgoings, then lenders are holding back.
On the finacial front, those who want to buy are not prepared to spend unless there is a bargin to be had. No one wants to pay $500k for a house, with $100k of equity, only to find out in a years time the house is worth $475k. They have just lost 25% of their equity. So those who can are holding back, it is said that the majority of any profit made on property is made on the purchase price, the difference between what you had to pay and what was a true price that could have been achieved if the seller had the time and the ability to remain in the market
And of course fear, the fear of making a mistake. NZrs love to tell you how well they did in property, so nobody wants to jump in now only to find they did not make the grade and make a fortune in the next 24 months.
ps: when the average house is "affordable" to the average family, and people realise that a house is for living in, its not the sole investment to provide for their future wealth and happiness the better off the country as a whole will be.
I would like to ask those of you that are experts in the residential property market, tell us all why property is not selling
I point the finger at financial lenders offering greater than 70% mortgages to homeowners with limited disposable income.
There are many reason why property value are falling and houses are not being sold. Yes the credit crisis is playing a majyor part but there is also incresing cost of food/fuel, lower levels of net migration, and peceived job insucrity within the economy. This is causing not only the buyers to be more conservitve with there financial descions but also is influncing banks to tightnen mortgage cretria and decrease the % to be lent. This is making it extremly hard for middle class New Zealanders to enter the market and for the ones already in the market who have brought high and know are facing low re sale values are not taking the news well, My advice is maybe you should understand the property market before you enter it. You can never lose in property if you are prepared to hold onto your asset for the long term. Alot of NZers blindly assumed that values would keep increasing or fall slightly, however the global economy is very young and the political figures we have running the system have know real control or understanding of the highly complex and always changing beast that is or economy.
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