Retail sales figures not as rosy as they seem
The latest retail sales figures released today by Statistics New Zealand are not as rosy as they appear at first glance.
The value of seasonally adjusted total retail sales rose 1.5% ($82 million) in November, reversing a 2.4% ($133 million) decrease in October following the GST hike.
But this increase was due to an 11.8% ($69 million) increase in motor vehicles and parts retailing sales, which had been hit hard by the post-GST slump in activity with a 14.3% ($97 million) drop in October.
Core retail sales, which exclude the motor vehicle-related industries, actually dropped slightly in November, down 0.2% ($7 million).
Supermarket and grocery store sales dropped 2.8% ($40 million), following an increase of 4.4% ($61 million) in October.
All other food and drink-related industries recorded decreases during November.
In actual terms total retail sales rose 2.5% ($136 million) in November 2010 compared with November 2009, while core retail sales rose by 0.6% ($28 million) over the same period.
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Comments and questions3
Surely it is stating the obvious that the economy is still in recession. All this spin saying that the economy is in recovery is just that a load of bull. With phase 2 of the emissions trading scheme due to be implemented soon look forward to some real price hikes soon to increase the cost of living.
I understand the rental car operators brought up large and the figures may well be a reflection of this buying.
I don't think we want retail to boom again - the last 10 years it increased in size - i.e. the size of the industry on the back of massive borrowing based on perceived property wealth. Its a bit like a diet - If I am 30 KG over weight and I go on a diet for 2 weeks and loose 5 kilo, it doesn't mean great now I can get back to eating - I still have 25 KG to loose. Not blowing money on retail spend is not recession if the size of the industry was too big and needs to rebalance. It should only be recession if we are going backwards in out ability to earn money externally to the the country not internally. We need to move many people who are or were in the internal retail sector to the external export sector.