Romney faces almost certain defeat

Chin up

With less than a day to go before the US Presidential election, Republican challenger Mitt Romney needs a miracle.

If polls are correct, he faces almost certain defeat - thanks to Barak Obama's advantage in the so-called swing states.

In nationwide polls, the race remains a statistical dead heat, and Mr Romney has an even chance at gaining a majority of the popular vote.

But that would mean nothing under the Electoral College system gives each state a certain number of votes based on population, with 270 needed to win.
 
Not everyone believes the polls are correct. Ironically (given a Wall Street Journal/NBC/Marist poll puts Mr Obama ahead nationwide, and 51% to 45% in front  in the swing state of all swing states, Ohio), one Wall Street Journal board member warns polls are Democrat-biased, and says Mr Romney will win.
 
 
Click to enlarge. Source: Politico.com
 

Given Obama's lock on East and West Coast states, and Romney's lead in most of the South, the race comes down to a handful of battleground states - most of them in the Mid West.

There are paths for Mr Romney to reach the magical 270 mark without winning the largest Mid West battleground, Ohio (see the New York Time's Paths to Victory graphic), but they all require an upset win in several states where Obama is regarded as safely ahead 

No Republican has ever won the White House without carrying Ohio, but Politico's latest poll-of-polls has Mr Obama ahead by 50% to 47.1%.

Another factor: although polls show a neck-and-neck nationwide race, they also show that a clear majority of Americans now think Mr Obama will win - and for better-or-worse, last-minute undecided voters often break for he candidate they think will win in their desire not to have backed a loser.

The New York Times' FiveThirtyEight Forecast gives Obama a 92% chance of winning (again assuming swing state polls are accurate). Nate Silver, who writes the blog, says some polls could be rogue, but with 22 out of 23 in close states favouring the incumbent, "it's beyond a coin toss."

Many have already voted
Worse, for Mr Romney, time is running out faster than you might think. Under Ohio's liberal early voting laws, more than 29% of registered voters have already cast their ballot.

Romney has been behind in the Electoral College count all through the race - even after his first debate bounce.

Since Hurricane, Sandy, with the chance it afforded Mr Obama to show leadership, and garner glowing comments from New Jersey's popular Republican Governor Chris Christie, Mr Obama has moved further ahead in the Electoral College tally.

One poll-of-polls has him moving ahead in Virginia since Sandy (the state is often cited as the third most crucial battleground), while a Walls Street Journal/NBC/Marist poll has the president moving ahead in Florida.

If Mr Obama does take Florida, it won't just be a comfortable win - it will be verging on a landslide.

Republicans will hold the house
The better news for Republicans: all polls point to the party holding the House of Representatives, and having a shot at taking control of the Senate from the Democrats.

The election takes place November 6 (Wednesday November 7 NZ time; the Ohio poll will close 2.30pm NZT).

In the event of a 269-269 Electoral College tie, the House of Representatives will decide the President (presumably picking Mr Romney if it the Republicans maintain control) while the Senate will decide the Vice President (if the Democrats manage to maintain their majority, they will pick Mr Obama's running mate Joe Biden).

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13 Comments & Questions

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Hope you guys are right. Romney is the caricature of the archetype American Plastic Politician.

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As opposed to Obama who is the archetype of the communitarian cultural marxist thug Chicago community organizer...who signed the NDAA into law by executive fiat giving him the power to use the US military to intern US citizens without charge for an indefinite period.

But I guess it ain't fascism when a nice fluffy freedom hating Dem does it...duh!

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You realize Obama is fiscally centrist in American politics and right of Conservative world leaders like Cameron and Harper. He's not even a leftist let alone a "Marxist." Seriously, criticizing his aggressive authoritarian military policy is sort of valid, but calling him a Marxist or socialist is completely absurd.

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I believe Obama can move U.S.A pple from better 2 best.forward i beleive.

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It seems that roughly 50% of Americans would vote for Romney, but that's no the point. The point is that under the Electoral College system, the nationwide popular vote counts for nothing.

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Many of these polls are using flawed modelling based on 2008 turn out.

I think many people will be surprised.

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You are right Romney will win a surprise 300 -312 electrol votes.

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Either way the United States is bankrupt, the path may be slightly different under Obama or Romney but it ends the same no matter what.

The U.S. has 46+ million people on food assistance, it has nearly $200 trillion in obligations and is bleeding $1+ trillion a year in additional debt.

It's a train of 300 million people heading towards giant black hole.

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You're right. When people talk about the "fiscal cliff" what they don't realize is the cliff they are talking about is really an arbitrary limit that is self imposed which of course won't be held to.

The REAL fiscal cliff will be when the creditors turn off the tap.

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Yes, polling has been skewed with over-sampling of Democrats based on 2008. Unskewed polls show Romney leading narrowly in Ohio and other swing states, meaning he will win the presidency.

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The world will sigh with relief if Romney wins. Otherwise its more taxes, more borrowing and more redistribution, regulation and controls.

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If Romney wins, the USA's relations with the rest of the world will take a massive backwards step.The relationship with NZ is likely to be a casualty because of its dealings with China.

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This tweet sums it all up for me! by @jcrclarksonesq Isn't choosing between Romney and Obama a bit like choosing which leg you'd most like to have amputated

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