Scientists back Campbell in Moon Man quake prediction row
UPDATES:
Predicting earthquakes - hedging your bets
Learning from America’s Ken Ring moment
Ken Ring can't predict earthquakes
Last night, self-styled commentator Ken Ring claimed he had correctly predicted the Christchurch earthquake of February 22.
And he told TV3's John Campbell that another quake will strike on March 20.
Mr Ring is best-known for his weather predictions, based on lunar cycles.
And even though his track record in that department has been challenged, he fronted on Campbell Live with his theories, and new prediction, about the Canterbury disaster.
Some will find Mr Ring's foray into pseudo-mystical seismology offensive.
Certainly, Mr Campbell ran out of patience - and, some said, common courtesy - as he interviewed Mr Ring.
The adverserial nature of the interview saw a public backlash in favour of Mr Ring, who enjoys majority support according to some online polls (whose self-selecting nature is, admittedly, about as scientifically valid as Mr Ring's theories).
The Science Media Centre has reacted to the brouhaha not by critiquing Mr Campbell's etiquette, but by asking experts to give their evaluation of Mr Ring's lunatic approach.
Here some excerpts (warning, if you prefer talkback philosophy to science, stop reading now):
Dr Mark Quigley, Senior Lecturer in Active Tectonics and Geomorphology at Canterbury University:
No one has predicted the recent earthquakes in Canterbury.
Vague quotes about dates of 'increased' activity plus or minus several days, without magnitudes, locations, and exact times do not constitute prediction.
This is opportunistic and meaningless self promotion during a time of national crisis.
Consider implementation of this 'predictive' strategy. Should we evacuate an area every time the moon is on its closest approach, is full, or new, or is moving rapidly?
Imagine the fear and frustration of such an approach, particularly given the unspecified times, locations, and magnitudes of the supposed 'imminent' events.
Without a basic understanding of how faults generate earthquakes, where the faults are, at what stage they are at in the seismic cycle, and how they have been affected by prior activity, where should we evacuate and where should we go to? This would require several evacuations a month of 'unspecified areas' to other 'unspecified areas'. This is ludicrous.
Since humans first looked into the sky and felt the effects of earthquakes, they have wondered if the moon and planets are in some way responsible for major earthquakes. As early as 1897, scientists began to pose hypotheses about moon-earth earthquake connections and test them in honest and rigorous way. After all, the moon still gets earthquakes in the absence of plate tectonics, so perhaps there is some validity to this claim.
Many of these findings from studies comparing earthquake catalogues to tides have been published in high quality journals such as Science (e.g., Cochran et al., 2004) and some scientists have argued based on statistical data from global earthquakes for an influence of tides on earthquake activity under certain circumstances, such as beneath the oceans and within active volcanoes. Some scientists have even argued for a small correlation (perhaps an increased earthquake likelihood of 0.5-1%) between smaller, shallower continental earthquakes and 'solid earth tides' (changes in the shape of our planet due to the gravitational pull of the moon). This is peer-reviewed but controversial research; it does not make it so, but it has undergone scrutiny and will continue to do so. This is the scientific process.
Typical earthquake-induced stress changes are about 100 to 1000 times greater than those induced by the tides.
Earthquake induced stress increases are also constant, that it until the breaking of the rock alleviates that stress, while tidal stress changes occur in brief intervals related to the moon's elliptical orbit about the earth. There is significant evidence to suggest that the tidal oscillations are too brief and too weak to trigger major earthquakes. So the redistribution of stress related to our 7.1 mainshock and resultant aftershocks is undoubtedly the dominant control on our aftershock sequence, not the moon or planetary alignment.
I won't be going anywhere in late March.
Matt Gerstenberger - Geological Hazard Modeller; David Rhoades - Geophysical Statistician, both of GNS Science
Validation of an earthquake prediction methodology is a notoriously tricky undertaking.
Unfortunately it is not as simple as taking a single prediction, whatever that may be, and comparing it to what occurred.
It may be that a particular method has some bits of useful information in it, enough that it may get the prediction correct one out of every five times, or one out of every 100 times, or maybe, one out of every 10,000 times.
For a prediction to be useful it must be understood where in this range the method falls. If it is correct 1-in-10,000 times, or is wrong much more often than it is correct, it will be of little help and a random guess will do just as well.
A significant body of research has been directed at the idea that earthquakes may be predictable based on tidal information. While some of the studies have shown that there may be some level of correlation between the occurrence of earthquakes and tides, the correlation is low enough so that a prediction based on it would be correct only a small proportion of the time and would be wrong much more often than it is correct.
Dr John Beavan, Crustal Dynamics Geophysicist at GNS Science:
As Mark [Quigley] points out, vague assertions of increased earthquake likelihood are not useful.
But we should not be too dismissive of earthquake/tidal links in certain circumstances. (I'm referring to the stresses induced in the solid earth by the tides due to the moon and sun - (anyone who suggests that the planets have an influence is talking nonsense). As well as the tides induced directly in the solid earth, the ocean tides load the Earth and cause additional stresses, particularly close to coastlines.
We are quite happy these days to allow that Coulomb stress changes on the order of 1 bar due to a major earthquake can influence the locations of aftershocks, and can act as a trigger for future earthquakes adjacent to the original quake.
Though I emphasise that we can say nothing about the specific timing of such earthquakes.
Tidal stresses are only an order of magnitude or so lower than this, so it is reasonable to suggest that tidal stresses could have an influence on faults that are already stressed close to their breaking point.
Many studies were conducted and published in the 1970s and 1980s that looked for a connection between earth tides and earthquakes. These almost uniformly gave negative results, or results that were perhaps positive but very close to the noise level.
One could hypothesize that the Earth's crust in the Canterbury region has been so stressed by the September quake that the tiny stresses induced by the tides could have an influence on the times of aftershock occurrence. This is a testable hypothesis, as it could be applied to all the aftershocks recorded so far to see if the effect shows up in the timing of those aftershocks.
Dr Marc Wilson, Senior Lecturer in Psychology at Victoria University:
We have something of a pre-disposition to try to find explanations for things that happen, and much more so for bad things, than good.
Why? Bad things can kill us, where good things (no matter how good) have a much less final benefit!
This is one of the reasons news media tend to focus on bad stuff - because that's what we want to know about, so we can seek to prevent it in the future. We are really quite well adapted for making connections between apparently unrelated things that might help us avoid getting, in evolutionary terms, eaten.
The downside is that sometimes we make the wrong connections, but hey, wouldn't it be worse to GET eaten than make a fool of yourself crying wolf?
Of course, there's not much we can actually do about things that we REALLY don't have any control over. This makes most people very uncomfortable (and some more than others) so we look for ways to deal with that discomfort. One way to do this is to find 'causes' that we CAN point to, to explain bad stuff. This is one of the reasons that conspiracy theories develop - the fact that stuff sometimes just happens is less comfortable than being able to point to some shadowy evil conspiracy!
So, this explains why people try to predict the future (or secure the services of those, ahem, practitioners that purport to). We've done it forever, and will continue to do so. It helps us from living with the uncertainty and stress that comes from worrying about when things will happen. Where it can be counterproductive, though, is when the security we get from 'knowing' that nothing bad is going to happen prevents us from taking reasonable precautions or makes us complacent.
"My personal opinion? Find comfort where you can get it, BUT... I'd trust science over most sources, and I'd still make sure that I do those things that I CAN control (earthquake proofing those things I can, making sure my earthquake kit is well-stocked, etc.)
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Comments and questions217
I think it is perfectly reasonable to investigate whether the magnetic influence of the moon and the tides have an effect on the weather and earthquakes. It does no good to have a closed mind, remember they once thought the earth was flat.
[Good to see someone familiar with Ken's early work. - CK]
Gee experts in active tectonics and crustal dynamics. Also a Geological hazard modeller.
Not exactly high end physics or math is it? How about quoting some real scientists.
How can it be said that this cannot be true . He calculated the other 2 earthquakes, I think some of us have a problem beleiving anything out of the usual. we dismiss anything that is not science fact . I beleive we need to have a higher consciousness in this time . Thankyou Ken.
Duh! Of course scientists back Campbell. Their jobs are at risk.
DR Mark Quigley and Co
You have no right to be part of a criticism of teh Moon Man. At least he predicts
You guys are as useless as an economist - you only comment on history and have no capability of predicting the future or when activity is likely to happen. You have only just found out that the last few quakes came from a totally new fault line around the Port Hills and were telling everyone it was connected to the Darfield faultline.
So maybe sharpen up your own highly paid ( and Government Funded too ) jobs that we taxpayers fund with very few tangible outcomes.
A large number of NZ farmers have sworn by the Moon man for many successful years - he has saved them millions by correctly predicting the weather. The Moon Man has a track record - of success.
That is a lot more than you guys have delivered - maybe all the noise now iis to cover your ineptness and incompetence - The Moon Man is a genuine threat to you.
Stick to your jobs and start delivering results and outcomes.
[Ken said this summer would be cooler.
(See http://www.nzherald.co.nz/metservice/news/article.cfm?o_id=112&objectid=10593960).
Yet NIWA found February was our hottest month on record for many regions.
(See http://www.nzherald.co.nz/niwa/news/article.cfm?o_id=136&objectid=10706550).
Whoops - CK]
So confused is so right about these incompetent fools like Quigley.
And we all know John Campbell is a total c*** and no one listens to him or respects his professional abilities.
The Moon Man should be sitting back laughing at these turkeys.
Given the GNS scientists' predicted aftershock modeling was claimed to be so reliable last night how come it's so hard to find online? Surely the public should be able to see it and plan accordingly?
Looking at the comments above I wonder how on earth NZ will build a knowledge economy. Let's stick to low wage low value model, it seems to suit our level of comprehension.
Bugger science, what did it ever do for us?
I've done a bit of research myself, read here:
http://kenringmoonmanwrong.blogspot.com/
The comments! I have lost my faith in people. Especially moon unit "How about quoting some real scientists"
We could just quote Ken then, the guy whose other job is a childrens entertainer, that's right a real live clown. Once upon a time i thought that if you just pateintly explained the obvious facts to people they would understand. I stopped thinking that long ago.
I Despair
There is irrefutable scientific evidence, that the moon can indeed precipitate or, play a part in earthquake phenomena. The boffin on Campbell's show even stated as such. Perhaps Mr. Moon Man’s work and studies extend beyond what the ’experts’ have been taught at University? At medical school it is called the ‘caterpillar effect‘, where students are discouraged from thinking beyond the square of conventional treatments, primarily to protect the profits of the pharmaceutical industry.
Nobody in the world can predict earthquakes, this day, date, location and magnitude.
Because of that nobody can say CHCH will get a 5.5 earthquake when where etc.
If people want to live in fear hiding in doorways etc. because an earthquake is going to be on mar 20th, fine, but keep it to yourself and not spread fear.
This is why scientists don't worldwide, because they can't.
OH, Mr Moon said in October the aftershocks would die and no more big earthquakes are predicted for CHCH. He forgot about Boxing day for starters.
Worldwide The moon and Earthquakes has been looks into and debunked not just in NZ.
Why is Mr Moon not employed in the field by GNS, USGS, Japan or other??? Because he is false.
Just like the thought the world is going to end in 2012, so I can't see the point in rebuilding CHCH.
By the way I predict an earthquake tomorrow for CHCH, it might be only like 2.5 in size but I will be right hahahahaha
Maybe the scientists should tell us whether there is going to be a major earthquake ( above say 5.5 on the richter scale ) around the 20th of March as the Moon Man predicts ( give or take a few days ) and somewhere between Marlborough and North/Mid Canterbury.
They are critical of his predictions and also the range of days he predicts.
The only way they can answer this is to predict if there will or won't be a major quake around then - but in their case the exact date ( to mitigate their criticism of the Moon Man )
OR there won't be a major earthquake then.
I bet they won't have the balls or ability to be exact in their predictions.
I wish that John Campbell had interviewed Dr Reg Roberts who IS a scientist and appears to have developed a mathematical predictive model. His predictions he regularly publishes on his website weeks before the date of the events. His predictions have been close for the Southern region of NZ, for last few months anyway, and I would have thought worth a rational conversation on his methodology.
Anon at 9.36pm
We are talking major quakes you plonker.
The reason the Moon Man is not employed by GNS USGS etc is that he has the ability to think outside the square and that is not in the job spec for bludging Government funded institutions like them who employ nerds who can't get a job anywhere else
I think you mean the influence of gravity, not MAGNETS. (The moon doesn't have any heavy metals or magnetic force)
Where can I get a drink?
Calculated my foot! Ring has also predicted earthquakes for, at least, the 24th of September, the 1st and 7th of October the first week in November, the 20th to the 27th of January, the 1st to the 5th and 19th to the 25th of March and the 17th of April. In fact, in one post, giving him the +/- one day he needs in order to claim he predicted the February 22nd quake , he paints more than half of the time between the start of January and the end of March as earthquake risk.
When he predicts, he says it's merely an opinion. When he gets the odd one (out of dozens) right, he retrospectively calls it a prediction. Calculated? He said it'd be M>7
I trust science over pseudoscience any day. If you want to run to the hills every time he predicts a quake go for it! However, he predicts a lot, and is not very clear as to where it will occur, so where will you run to?
Calculated my foot! Ring has also predicted earthquakes for, at least, the 24th of September, the 1st and 7th of October the first week in November, the 20th to the 27th of January, the 1st to the 5th and 19th to the 25th of March and the 17th of April. In fact, in one post, giving him the +/- one day he needs in order to claim he predicted the February 22nd quake , he paints more than half of the time between the start of January and the end of March as earthquake risk.
When he predicts, he says it's merely an opinion. When he gets the odd one (out of dozens) right, he retrospectively calls it a prediction. Calculated? He said it'd be M>7
I trust science over pseudoscience any day. If you want to run to the hills every time he predicts a quake go for it! However, he predicts a lot, and is not very clear as to where it will occur, so where will you run to?
After the 7.1 Quake which Ken Ring said he predicted with out evidence from before. He then predicted that the next Major Earthquake was going to be in Ireland.
I think they are still waiting for one in Ireland.
He is not employed by worldwide agencies because he and his predictions are nonsense.
I am in CHCH and the amount of people asking me about his predictions and taking it seriously is quite a number, an I have had to put there mind at rest as they are worrying and scarred witless, maybe Ken Ring should pay the large medical bills if people need medical help for mental distress due to his predictions.
The TV is God, and always right. People complain about the cost of an education in NZ, yet they attack anyone who has one. Science isn't about taking sides, it's about producing an unbiased scientific concept & then testing that concept. Yet everyone has picked a side (99% without evidence or reason) and started throwing stones. Everyone is entitled to an opinion.
The reason the Moon Man is not employed by GNS USGS
er no, it will be because he is not a scientist and seemingly has no understanding of scientific process.
I am pretty sure that having read the bible I should be getting funding for GE research. No doubt many of Ken's supporters will be behind me on this one.
Depressing reading isn't it. Magic is a fragile place to seek comfort.
I don't know what you classify as science, maybe you need to go study your bible some more. Im sure god will tell you when the next earthquake is. Also, don't forget to stop your wife from asserting herself (Or get your arse back into the kitchen, if you're female).
Sciencetists HAVE to be come more focused as we increase our knowledge about how stuff works. How about you stop insulting the GNS scientists, who know a lot more than you do.
"Bugger science, what did it ever do for us?"
Medicine, Doctors benefit from science everyday for centuries, for starters
That's a good one. "What has science done for us?"
Well, why don't you go ask the people with no power, no internet, no running water, no sewage, etc.
[You've got to concede we are still waiting for science to come up with a decent comments filter - CK]
Campbell has always been and will always be, a prize prat. I presume Mr Moon Man was invited on to Campbells show based on his solid reputation for accurately predicting NZ weather over many decades, and upon which a significant number of NZ farmers depend (read NZ economy). To diss, and be so arrogant and rude to a man with such a solid reputation in his field of accurate weather forecasting, without giving him the curtesy of allowing him to explain his theories in-depth on earthquake prediction, was disgusting. Only time will tell if he is right or wrong.
My bunion always gives me a twinge of pain 7 seconds before an earthquake. The pain seems to be directly calibrated ton the intensity of the quake! Unfortunately the 7 seconds does not give me enough time to write it up in my almanac until after the event.
I have full faith and beleif in Ken Ring and have done so for many years, it's time the science boffs went and played with themselves as they have not got a clue especially that Quigley fella as what is the point in all the money being wasted "after the event" measuring and "trying to predict" things - Best is all listed to Mr Ring as more lives may be saved... Hope we are all still here after the 20th of March (give r take a day) to discuss this further and the sincere hope that no more lives are lost.
He said, posting on the Internet.
Sorry, but our fellow posters appear to have completely missed the irony and frustration in your post. And the point of it.
Pretty easy to find if you have half a brain: http://geonet.org.nz/canterbury-quakes/aftershocks/
Oh my god! Are there seriously so many stupid people around? Christ!
It takes very little research at all to discover that Rings predicitions (of weather and geological events) are very often wrong. And events he does 'predict' are mainly due to very vague details that can be easily framed, after the fact, to have been referring to the event in question.
Selectively highlighting a single vagure prediction and claiming it was accurate, while ignoring many others that amount to nothing, is the height of intellectual dishonesty.
Ken Ring deserves no media attention at all. Unfortunately people are now taking him seriously and allowing his baseless predictions of upcoming events to scare them.
GNS can't and won't offer a prediction to counter Ring's because NO ONE ACCURATELY PREDICTS EARTHQUAKES. If they did people would be killed by them all the time.
What GNS can do (and has been doing) is modelling the geophysical changes that are happening and generating a basic outline of the seismic activity likely to be involved in those changes.
Ironic, but I read today that a top, USA geo-scientist predicts a major earthquake(s) in the world (circa March 20), which apparently has to do with an exchange of polarity (whatever the hell that means!!), occurring at both the North and South poles, around this time.
Having read all of the above I hate to inform you, but you are all wrong ! even Mr Moon Man. The reason we get earthquakes is because the Earth is really a giant catfish and when we (humans) build structures on the cat fish some of them irritate the fish and it wiggles ( no relation to the children's TV programme). This theory has been extensively documented and accepted for many hundreds of years in Japan. There are mystics who divine where a house or factory should be built so as not to irritate the catfish. The proof of my theory - look at the building boom that had occurred throughout 2008 - 2009. It is just so obvious. Don't Piss the Fish off.
Is this the non-paying audience the NBR reaches, or are all of your readers like this?
Maybe Barry is right and you should turn the free bit off. The everyday posts you get paint a very grim picture of New Zealand's business and investing community.
Its got you writting on here :)
The roads?
Ahem, these *are* your readers, y'know. Some subtle commentary about the NBR audience here ;-)
I'm afraid I must agree with many of the posters here - science is bunkum, whereas Ken's retroactive 'predictions' and 'calculations' are based on solid techniques. Problem is, where does one find eye of newt these days?
I too have a track history of predictions, with a striking success rate which I won't brag about here. Suffice to say, I can provide proof of the accuracy of Ken's (and therefore mine too) predictions:
I hereby predict that in Auckland, between 25 November and 26 December 2011, (give or take 4 weeks), there will be a period of no fewer than 4 consecutive days (give or take a few days) of weather. Wait and see - I will be proven right, so leave poor wee Ken alone!
This charlatan is no better than those TV 'psychics' who prey on the gullible and emotional. The disgusting aspect is that he is doing it at a time when so many are already traumatised and uniquely susceptible to such scaremongering. Purely despicable conduct.
So where was his prediction for the 4.5 that just hit Wellington?
Ken ring is one of those poor sods who must havbe been dropped on his head when young, altering the normal pattern of synoptic connections. I too can predict events .... let me see .... yes, there will be rain in the Amazon basin between 18th April and 23rd June 2011.
Best post so far.
"This charlatan is no better than those TV 'psychics' who prey on the gullible and emotional. The disgusting aspect is that he is doing it at a time when so many are already traumatised and uniquely susceptible to such scaremongering. Purely despicable conduct."
I was smiling all the way through the Campbell interview, it was very entertaining and why I like him, but Santa Claus on TV1 is also getting better at interviewing now.
I thought moon man had every opportunity to put his view across but he didn't when Campbell went quiet after he complained, instead we heard silence.
People do nag alot these days (re Campbell interview). I blame this conspiracy theory age we live in now where we get all these groupies of the conspiracy theorist who have no technical knowledge at all who like to go against everything to be hip or something. Alot of these naggers are on NBR.
Seriously... I wont claim to say I believe that Ken's "opinions" are flawless... But I still don't understand how he can be the target of soooo much outward hostility - Is there any expert in the field who can say without a doubt that the moon has NO influence on earthquakes at all? No there isn't... Because all the research has been able to show so far is that the moon MAY POSSIBLY have an influence - and that is as far as they have gotten on the topic... Maybe if we take the influence of the moon (that has already been discovered in land tides and ocean tides etc) include that theory with the theory of how the sun can influence land and ocean tides... then calculate that with the variances in the ionospheric charges crossed with the variances in the strength of the gravity field around the earth itself and then also add in a calculation in regards to the thickness of the earths crust at differing points around the globe blended with the depth of the barycenter - not to mention adding in the known weather system variables and also possible sun flares etc... and somehow calculate it all together for different dates and positions of the earth + moon + sun system.... Maybe then more of a correlation will come about... I truly just don't think the research has finished in relation to this topic, and therefore noone has any right to outright disregard a man who has "opinions" that can't be utterly disproved...
*sigh* we have a debate that is detracting from the human need of us all to focus on how we can help. Easily distracted are we, now back to the important things..... how are you all Christchurch, is there anything we can do to help, lets not forget ah folks as we argue, there are people out there suffering already.
Be-aware of these fully qualified tertiary educated "experts"that are being funded by questionable means Maybe the same"experts that told us we need fluoridation in our water??The same people that tell us we need to vaccinate our children ! There is no excuse for ignorance in this day and age- google it people !!! They are brainwashing you !
Just like a car needs oil, it would seam the earth does too. we started sucking it out like it would last forever. and guess what it wont. low oil cover = more fiction. John is a dick, the moon man is a clown and the scientists are nerds
Are all these people idiots? Of course the man is an obvious quack! Shameless con-man promoting himself on the back of national tragedy. Disgusting. Why put him on TV at all? The number of drongos supporting him is truly frightening. Are NZs really that thick?
back to the real news.... Christchurch how are you doing, is there anything we can do to help... we seem a little distracted, sorry... we are still here, focussed on you, day 7, we can't even guess what this is like, we are still here, we are with you....
Very well put.
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