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Scoring my 2013 predictions

On 24 December 2012 I made 20 predictions for 2013, emulating the annual Fairfax tradition. My predictions and how I scored them were:

  1. At least two state owned power companies will have successful partial floats. – 1 (MRP and Meridian floated)
  2. Tracey Martin will be elected/anointed Deputy Leader of NZ First. – 1 (occurred a couple of months ago)
  3. Holly Walker’s Lobbying Disclosure Bill will not be passed into law in 2013, even if amended. – 1 (killed off near unanimously)
  4. There will be at least three new Ministers by the end of 2013 (new being not Ministers today). – 1 (Nikki Kaye, Michael Woodhouse, Nick Smith)
  5. Louisa Wall’s marriage bill will pass into law by June 2013, with at least 75 votes at third reading. – 1 (77 votes in April)
  6. David Shearer will demote at least two front-benchers to the backbenches. -1 (Street and Mahuta in February)
  7. David Carter will be elected Speaker of the House, but it will not be a unanimous vote. -1 (Elected 62 to 52 over Mallard)
  8. Paul Foster-Bell will become an MP in 2013. – 1 (May 28)
  9. The 2013 census will see two new general seats and one new Maori seat. – 0 (only one general seat and no Maori seat)
  10. David Cunliffe will not be rehabilitated and remain off the front bench. – 0 (I could argue a half mark as he wasn’t rehabilitated, he was voted in by unions and members, not caucus)
  11. An MP will get engaged and a different one will get pregnant. – 1/2 (Holly Walker announced pregnancy in May, unaware of any engagement)
  12. Current or former Members of Parliament will contest both the Wellington and Auckland Mayoralties. – 0
  13. David Clark’s Mondayisation Bill will pass 61 votes to 60 at 3rd reading. – 1 (passed 61 – 60 on 17 April)
  14. During the year at least three National MPs will announce they will retire at the 2014 election. – 1 (I would score this higher if I could – eight retirements announced so far)
  15. Over the year, National will on average of all public polls, poll higher than Labour and Greens combined but not Labour, Greens and NZ First. – 1 (On averaged National 1% higher than Lab/Gre but 3% below Lab/Gre/NZF)
  16. Brendan Horan will not be an MP by the end of 2013. – 0 (here to stay!)
  17. The 2013 Budget will project a small surplus for 2014/15. – 1 ($75m is as small as it gets!)
  18. NZ will not win the election for the UN Security Council, as too many countries think we are part of Australia who have just got elected. – 1/2 (not decided until September 2014)
  19. Winston will get thrown out of the House by the new Speaker. – 0 (I thought he had been, but can’t find a reference to it)
  20. The thresholds for parliamentary representation will remain unchanged at 5% party vote or 1 electorate seat. – 1

So overall I score myself 14/20. Happy with that.

UPDATE: An MP did get engaged in 2013, but they also got unengaged later. However I still score that as a 1/2 so my score goes up to 14.5/20.

Political commentator David Farrar posts at Kiwiblog.

Comments and questions
1

That is very impressive David. Congratulations - your excellence in punditry credentials have been renewed for 2014 :)