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David Shearer is likely to remain the Labour Party leader until at least March next year, according to traders on the betting site iPredict.
Speculation is rife Mr Shearer has done his dash as leader and it is only a matter of who will replace him as leader.
iPredict traders, however, believe there is a 90% chance Mr Shearer will still be Labour leader on March 1, 2013.
They reckon there is a 56% chance he will depart as leader some time in 2013, but only a 19% chance he will leave before the end of this year.
When he does leave as leader, traders think there is a 55% probability David Cunliffe will replace him.
Deputy leader Grant Robertson has a 24% chance of being made leader, with newcomer Andrew Little on 4%.